It depends upon when you intend to leave. Right now, the set of the loop current is generally easterly at Cape San Blas turning to southerly further east with a drift of less than one knot
. For the next several daze, winds are projected to be from the northeast in the 15-20 knot
range, making for a nice steady broad reach. As it is only about 185 miles from Cape San Blas to the northwest channel at Tampa Bay; and a like amount from there to Key West
, both of which you should be able to cover in 30 hours in your boat, if I were making the trip with family
that is the route
I would follow. Alone, or with a couple of other fellows, I think I might just go direct, figuring I would be sailing for roughly 3 daze.
You can use PassageWeather.com to get a pretty good 3-4 day projection based on the GFS and/or NAM model whch seem to be pretty reliable.