Value of the dollar?

[Tropic Cat]

I would bet that the USD will continue to fall. Over time, this will pretty much eliminate new European boats from our market as they won't be able to compete with domestic boat builders. In other words, if you want a new boat, it's probably a good time to take a look at American built Cats.

Maine Cat
Manta
Endeavour
Gemini

Who did I leave off the list?

[ess105]

Originally Posted by Tspringer

There is simply no way the US Govt. can fund its looming entitlement commitments without incurring additional debt on a level that ensures the destruction of the dollar.

Why assume the country will meet it's entitlement commitments if doing so commits economic suicide? The obvious risk to all working Americans today is that you simply won't get the social security handouts you may be expecting. If they can't pay it, they won't pay it.

[Fishspearit]

I see the dollar continuing to decline for a while as well. However, like the weather, there are so many variables that come into play you can't base a prediction on one or two of those variables alone. It's like saying "there are more clouds today than yesterday, so it's going to rain tomorrow." As the dollar continues to fall against the other currencies, eventually it will make dollar investments a good deal again. A rough road ahead, but I don't see the doom and gloom scenario playing out. Free market economies have proven time after time to be more resilient than most people expect. Like Rick said above, wait a few years, as the dollar continues to drop the U.S. built boats will become a better deal than the European built ones.

[Tropic Cat]

Why did you just call them Social Security handouts? When someone gives my own money back to me, after holding it for 40 some odd years, I'd hardly call it a handout.

"They" better darn well pay 'it'...

Originally Posted by ess105

Why assume the country will meet it's entitlement commitments if doing so commits economic suicide? The obvious risk to all working Americans today is that you simply won't get the social security handouts you may be expecting. If they can't pay it, they won't pay it.

[ess105]

Originally Posted by rickm505

Why did you just call them Social Security handouts? When someone gives my own money back to me, after holding it for 40 some odd years, I'd hardly call it a handout.

"They" better darn well pay 'it'...

If only it worked that way. Do you really think they're saving all your SS payments on your behalf in order to hand them back later? Although it's probably more complicated than this, it's better to think of it in terms of your payments are going straight out the door to the folks receiving state pensions today.

If you're hoping to receive your full whack in the future, you need to look at the current generation of future earners - all those teenagers growing up on X-Box - and pray to all the Gods they will earn enough to pay us lot when we retire.

[Sandero]

My boat is built in Yerp and the dropping dollar is raising the value of my boat. I won't be selling it though.

jef
sv shiva

[ess105]

Originally Posted by defjef

My boat is built in Yerp and the dropping dollar is raising the value of my boat. I won't be selling it though.

Yerp?


(Ignore - Only added to make message meet minimum requirements)

[GordMay]

Yerp: Noun. Merc’n for for Europe

[Tspringer]

Originally Posted by ess105

Why assume the country will meet it's entitlement commitments if doing so commits economic suicide? The obvious risk to all working Americans today is that you simply won't get the social security handouts you may be expecting. If they can't pay it, they won't pay it.

If they can't pay it they wont? Are you serious?

Ask yourself this: What happens to a politician running for re-election when he says: "Sorry, but we are going to have to eliminate social security, Medicare and Medicaid payments. Sorry about that.".

Right. Any politician who even hints at such a thing is dead meat.

As to the argument that you paid into these systems and thus the Govt. has been holding your money and now they are simply repaying it.... wishful thinking.

Yes, you paid into the system. Your elected officials then took the money and spent it all. There is exactly zero $ sitting in the Social Security trust fund. Instead there are US Treasury bonds. The Govt. took the money you paid into the system and in effect "borrowed" it. What you have now is an IOU. Sorry about that.

What will happen is that all the entitlement fund due to be paid out will in effect get paid out. The Govt. will in fact pay all of its obligations. The rub will be the resulting inflation rate.

The way this will pan out is that as the off budget mandatory Govt. expenditures skyrocket due to the demographics of retiring boomers over the next 10 years the US Treasury Dept. will not be able to sell enough Treasury bond at auction to raise the funds to pay for everything. When the bid to cover ratios at Treasury auctions begin to approach 1:1 the Federal Reserve will step in and purchase newly issued Treasury bonds directly. This is printing money. The Govt. will in effect be monetizing the debt. The result will be hyperinflation.

This kind of scenario is not new, it has happened many times in the past. For a good read on the impact it can have on a 1st World economic power read up on the Wiemar Republic in Germany in the 1920s.

So folks will get their Govt. checks. But that $2500 per month wont seem so great when a nice dinner out costs $25K and a new 40' Hunter is $100,000,000.



Terry

[ssullivan]

Originally Posted by ess105

If only it worked that way. Do you really think they're saving all your SS payments on your behalf in order to hand them back later? Although it's probably more complicated than this, it's better to think of it in terms of your payments are going straight out the door to the folks receiving state pensions today.

If you're hoping to receive your full whack in the future, you need to look at the current generation of future earners - all those teenagers growing up on X-Box - and pray to all the Gods they will earn enough to pay us lot when we retire.

It has nothing to do with anyone having an Xbox. It's pure numbers. The baby boomers are screwed since there aren't enough of us younger people (unless they get more immigrants in the system soon) to support them. My generation (X) will have it a bit easier in the end, even though we were pretty well screwed through our entire lives so far. We have Y below us and they are MASSIVE in numbers - an echo of the baby boomers. There will be ample workers in Gen Y and tons of unused old folks homes for us when we get old. That is, unless they radically change the system.

The one big variable though is how those in charge now have traded away our country's future. As said above... if they Xbox players can't earn any money because they are working WalMart/McDonald's jobs, we're all screwed.

Too bad those in charge weren't long-sighted enough to put R&D, education, and the strength of the country ahead of their own greed. (yes, I'm speaking to ANY of you who offshored jobs, put profits ahead of quality, etc... to afford your boat and home)

*Oh yeah- the dollar is going to continue a slide until it's low enough that our exports (if we can remember how to make anything or anyone wants to buy our outdated stuff) are cheaper for other countries. I have just one word for that future: Mexerica.

[philip van praag]

i see the topic has drifted but this may help with the orginal problem


Q. Where should I buy currency?
You can obviously walk into any high street bank or bureau de change and exchange your currency for Euros. This may be convenient for your holidays but for larger amounts of currency it pays to get in touch with a specialist foreign exchange dealer such as Moneycorp. Specialist brokers will almost always offer much more competitive rates than high street banks or tourist outlets, as they deal exclusively in high-volume transactions and their overheads are much lower.
Q. What will it cost me?
Currency brokers do not charge a commission fee as they make a margin on your money from the high-volume rates they obtain in the money markets. Don't be afraid to email or pick up the phone and call a currency dealer like Moneycorp to see what rates are on offer and compare with your bank. In general the more money you wish to convert the better the rate. Depending on your bank or broker, there will be a cost to transfer funds of between £15 and £40 per transaction. It's a good idea to compare the total cost of a currency trade as some currency dealers do not charge a transfer fee but more than make up for this difference in the exchange rate that they quote.
Q. What information do I need to provide in order to make an exchange?
You can set up a trading facility free of charge and without obligation. Simply fax or post your completed application form to your currency dealer along with copies of two forms of identification e.g. a copy of your passport plus a recent utility bill or bank statement. Your account is normally opened the same working day. Moneycorp can open your account within an hour if your payment is urgent.
Q. How do I purchase currency?
Provided you have set up your trading facility with the broker or bank you will be able to buy currency over the telephone. This usually takes the form of a binding verbal agreement to buy currency at the quoted rate.
Q. Can I hold out for a particular rate?
Yes, you can instruct the broker to contact you the moment the rates change to your desired level. Some brokers, such as Moneycorp, can place an order to purchase currency outside London trading hours, which will automatically trigger as soon as your desired rate is achieved. Just make sure you are being realistic about the rate you are looking for and be prepared to wait!
Q. What if the rate is good now, but I don't need to make payment for 3 months?
You can fix an exchange rate for up to two years to make it easier to plan the cost of your currency payments. This is particularly useful if you are buying a new property "off plan". Through a reputable currency dealer, forward buying your currency is very straightforward. Simply book an exchange rate and send your dealer a deposit, usually 10% of the contract value. The 90% balance of your currency contract is payable when you wish to have funds transferred overseas. Many dealers recommend spreading your currency risk by splitting your currency requirement in two, buying half on a forward contract, as above, and the rest nearer your completion date.
Q. Will foreign exchange dealers offer advice about market conditions and rates?
Currency dealers are not regulated to give advice but many will provide you with information about prevailing market trends and currency movements. However, remember that no-one can predict the markets with any real certainty. You will have to make your own decision about when to buy currency, but market knowledge and experience imparted by your currency dealer will hopefully make that decision easier! Further information can be found at websites such as www.moneycorp.com where you can peruse the latest currency charts as well as sign up to receive daily or weekly market updates.
Q. How do I pay for my currency?
After fixing the exchange rate with your dealer, you will need to transfer funds to their client account. The easiest and quickest way is by bank transfer but some currency dealers will accept a cheque. Bear in mind that your cheque will have to clear before funds can be sent. Once the dealer has received your cleared funds, they will transfer your currency to the account of your choice.
Q. How can I find out current exchange rates?
The Interbank rate can readily be found on the internet and on Ceefax. Moneycorp's website has live currency charts and you can also view historical exchange rates. Although a useful guide to current market levels, do bear in mind that unless you are trading millions of pounds on a regular basis, you will not receive the Interbank rate for your own transaction! For a live quote on the amount you are looking to exchange, it is best to call your currency dealer.
Q. How long will my funds take to transfer to an overseas bank account?
Foreign exchange dealers use Electronic Funds Transfer and can generally get the funds into the destination account a good deal quicker than a high street bank. Moneycorp has a same-day transfer service to most European countries and North America, and next day for all other destinations. Bear in mind that there is sometimes a short delay in the receiving bank before your account is credited, this can usually be overcome with a "proof of payment" document that your currency dealer can provide on request.

[Jackstee]

Hi Guy's & Philip.
Well thats straight out the advert, however, I must admit, I joined this week. I get paid in US $, am a Brit, but have to pay for moorings and work in EU.
Seemed like the thing to do.

Steve

[ess105]

Originally Posted by ssullivan

It has nothing to do with anyone having an Xbox. It's pure numbers. The baby boomers are screwed since there aren't enough of us younger people.

You're right about the number but wrong about the X-Box. This is just my opinion but I reckon generation X/Y is soft comprising many kids who've simply had it easy and who are going to be up against kids overseas whose parents didn't have it so good and who've worked their ar*e of through school to get a decent education. By the time they realize they are years behind their globalized competitors, it'll be too late to catch up.

I don't think we need Mexico for the next generation of McDonald's workers. They'll come straight out of the middle class families who are generating X-Box kids.

It's a general view of course. In fact many kids will do terrifically well. The ones who have the wherewithal to put down the gamepad (or never pick it up) and work for a living. They will do very well because they'll be able to leverage the low cost labor around them.

I don't think this country is going down the pan but the wealth divide is going to shift and overall wealth generation along with it - ergo - reduced input into the pension pot. I think we've seen it's peak. If you can - save for your own retirement and don't gamble on the country choosing to run the dollar into the ground to avoid cutting s/s. Spend a bit more time with your kids doing educational stuff. Oops. Can't do both - can we?

[Brandywine]

As long as were ranting … you are already seeing some manufacturing moving back on shore, this happened nearly instantly and many multi nationals are always adjusting depending on flux in currency and raw materials. How do you think Beneteau is doing with there US production right now?

Many of the highest value jobs (programmers, Auditors, Radiologists… etc) can now be chosen from a Varity of locations on an almost instantly and since we fundamentally have a service economy now it only looks better in the long run with a weaker dollar. I this should be self limiting at some point…

Automation and point of consumption manufacturing are going to change the way things look in a huge way in the next 20years. I would not want to be in the business of building widgets then.

[dana-tenacity]

On the4 bright side, Kiwis can come to the US to buy boats