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Old 16-02-2014, 01:46   #706
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

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Originally Posted by Capt Rottnest View Post
Don't need to have years of sailing experience to write a good sailing story, look at Bumfuzzle. He was just good, turned a little controversy to their advantage, extra.. good.
But ok, success as a freelancer takes tons of work, people need to know that, if they don't already.
On the internet you need to be literate , but not Shakespeare!......but you do need a sell / angle / story that is of interest to folk. And imo that should be both info and entertainment - infotainment .personally I really dislike the blog layout but clearly many do like it. Me would combine a website with a blog...........the trick is of course to make money from your efforts. My feeeling is that whilst adverts./ Google adverts and affiliate programs have a place on their own would require site to viral! to be worth the effort - some do of course, but as much luck involved with that as skill. My thinking is that the gap can be filled by selling for self, not a squillion things - but making 10 dollars on a bucket is more achievable than same money from a squillion clicks.......of course I have yet to prove that idea, mostly because I suspect that the revenue would only be "good " when in a low cost environment and the dollars are also valued higher from enabling folk not to be married to life ashore.

imo a story like sailorchic (single female living onboard on a tight budget and cruising in USA to some extent) would have more of a sell than many other stories.............
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Old 16-02-2014, 14:08   #707
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

[QUOTE=David_Old_Jersey;1469282]On the internet you need to be literate , but not Shakespeare!......but you do need a sell / angle / story that is of interest to folk. And imo that should be both info and entertainment - infotainment .personally I really dislike the blog layout but clearly many do like it. Me would combine a website with a blog...........the trick is of course to make money from your efforts. My feeeling is that whilst adverts./ Google adverts and affiliate programs have a place on their own would require site to viral! to be worth the effort - some do of course, but as much luck involved with that as skill. My thinking is that the gap can be filled by selling for self, not a squillion things - but making 10 dollars on a bucket is more achievable than same money from a squillion clicks.......of course I have yet to prove that idea, mostly because I suspect that the revenue would only be "good " when in a low cost environment and the dollars are also valued higher from enabling folk not to be married to life ashore.

imo a story like sailorchic (single female living onboard on a tight budget and cruising in USA to some extent) would have more of a sell than many other stories.............[/QUOTE]

+1 Just extracting her posts on CF alone and polished a small amount would make for a good read.
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Old 17-02-2014, 09:48   #708
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

Here's another vote for sailorchic's new book!

DOJ, I think it's been mentioned here in this thread before, but the best manual for how to sell things on the internet effectively (and largely hands off) is "5 hour work week," in my opinion.

Not for everybody, but there's some good stuff in there.

Actually, our very own Mainesail has a pretty good model for those who don't want the blog aspect. He's known and very highly respected on the forums, has his own website with very informative "how-to" articles, and is selling some of the raw materials for his projects (the grey sealant tape who's name escapes me).

I bought some from him because I trusted that he was selling me the good stuff and I was already on his website reading an article about how to use it.

Obviously, he's doing this at a very low volume and more as a service to people like me, but the concept could be scaled up.
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Old 18-02-2014, 22:15   #709
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

Funny how many people seem to want to trivialize market trading. As a professional analyst and trading program manager, I can tell you that it is likely one of the most difficult ways to make money while cruising.

Unlike many other ventures, successful trading requires a large initial capital investment. While at least 95% of people who start trading have lost enough money within two years to quit, of the remaining 5% who last long term it typically takes around 10 years to learn how to be somewhat consistently profitable.

Imagine a job where every time you got paid there was a 50% chance that your boss would come and confiscate your paycheck. Then imagine that sometimes he would come to you and declare that not only will he not pay you for your time, but in fact you have to pay him for your time. And this could happen for months at a time.

Point is, there are very easy ways to passively make a 9-12% income stream on a decent sized acct, but market trading isn't the quick and easy way.
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Old 18-02-2014, 22:23   #710
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

9-12%? Easily? Please explain how, I'd love to get that level of return.
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Old 18-02-2014, 22:38   #711
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

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9-12%? Easily? Please explain how, I'd love to get that level of return.

As a highly regulated professional, I have to be careful what kind of info I disseminate on public forums where I don't have the ability to provide the requisite disclosures. The last thing I need is some joker doing something stupid and then claiming that my firm told him to do it. But feel free to PM me and I'd be happy to provide some info.
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Old 18-02-2014, 22:51   #712
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

Totally understand, I'll PM you now, thanks.
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Old 18-02-2014, 23:02   #713
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

I am sure Certeza is correct in saying that many forms of market trading are financially dangerous.
However, I have been trading seasonal commodity spreads for four years now.
Results as follows:
Year 1. Profit $67000
Year 2. Profit $20000
Year 3. Profit $67000
Year 4. (First half) $90000
It really is not rocket science, but you need significant capital that you can afford to lose.
I also feel insecure away from a reliable internet connection which may make it difficult for remote area cruisers.

Regards,
Richard.
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Old 18-02-2014, 23:21   #714
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Make Money While Cruising - List

Seasonal commodity spreads are FAR from being a sure thing. They are enticing to beginners because most of the time the seasonal relationship holds true and it is easy money. Then one season suddenly the typical relationship fails for some reason and things get ugly. Typically futures spreads are traded on margin with a decent amount of leverage so the trade gets away from the beginner really fast.

Read up on Brian Hunter with Amaranth Advisors fund. He was one of the top professionals in the years preceding 2006 doing exactly what you're talking about, trading seasonal natural gas spreads for a $3 billion fund. Then in spring 2006, the typical relationship failed and he blew up seemingly instantaneously. Losses ended up at $6.6 billion, more than double the amount he had available. So not only did he lose all of his clients' money trading seasonal spreads, but he put his FCM's other clients at risk by losing an additional $3.5 billion.
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Old 19-02-2014, 01:19   #715
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

Certeza,
I may be mistaken but I believe the Amaranth trades were seasonal futures rather than spreads. These can be sudden death.
With a spread you are naturally hedged short one side and long the other with related commodities so there is a degree of insurance.
If both sides go the wrong way (rare) then the trade can go bad quickly but basic money management techniques can limit the damage.
You don't have to be right all the time, just frequently enough to make a profit.
I also employ professional advice for other parts of my finances, but to be honest I make more money for myself than they do for me!
We should revisit this in another five years to see whether optimism or pessimism has prevailed.

Regards,
Richard.
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Old 19-02-2014, 09:47   #716
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

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Certeza,
I may be mistaken but I believe the Amaranth trades were seasonal futures rather than spreads. These can be sudden death.
With a spread you are naturally hedged short one side and long the other with related commodities so there is a degree of insurance.
If both sides go the wrong way (rare) then the trade can go bad quickly but basic money management techniques can limit the damage.
You don't have to be right all the time, just frequently enough to make a profit.
I also employ professional advice for other parts of my finances, but to be honest I make more money for myself than they do for me!
We should revisit this in another five years to see whether optimism or pessimism has prevailed.

Regards,
Richard.
According to my sources on the floor at the exchange, they were spreads. Specifically the 2007 March/April spread. This seasonal spread typically widens in Aug and Sep of the prior year as hurricanes threaten nat gas supply in the gulf. In fact, he had traded this same spread big the year before and when Katrina and Rita hit, Amaranth fund gained $1 billion, and Hunter started to become well known. But in 2006, there were no real damaging storms and seasonal inventories began to rise. During Jul, Aug, and Sep as the spread was contracting, Hunter was adding to the position at what looked to be even better prices. As soon as the spread widened again like it does every year, they would make a ton of money.

Unfortunately for the Amaranth investors, by the third week in Sep there had been no serious storms and the futures went into free fall, collapsing the spread. By this point they were facing margin calls and had a position that was getting away from them so quickly that there was no way out of it in an orderly fashion. The rest is history.

The thing about seasonal spreads is that virtually everyone knows how they typically behave. So ask yourself, if everyone knows it and it is easy money, why isn't every fund out there making that easy money all day long? The reason is that most of them have risk departments that are properly defining the real risk that the spread would move outside of historical precedent. They aren't piling into that trade because there are enough people in it already that the edge is gone. The true risks already outweigh the rewards.

But the "sure thing" illusion for seasonal spreads is strong and can last for a long time. Amaranth opened their fund in 2000 and up until the blow up they had never had a losing year, even during the 911 fiasco. Their energy futures trades were averaging 30% annual returns during that time.

I'm not suggesting that futures spreads are a bad trade. My firm specializes in futures spreads, albeit not in commodities. But the risks must be completely defined. For anyone to suggest that a beginner can just start up trading futures spreads and make easy money with limited risk it suggests that he hasn't really completely identified the risks.

Also, keep one thing in mind about your 'professionals'. They might be good or they might be bad. Statistically, less than 10% of professional managers has the skills to provide better risk adjusted returns than the broader market. But those of us who are good are still held to a completely different standard than you trading your own money.

For example, if I ever lost more than 10% of my clients' money, they would all leave. Even if I had doubled their acct up to that point. In fact, if I ever approach 5% drawdown, some would leave and the rest would get nervous. Even if the market is down 20%, that is no excuse. I run an absolute return program, I can't just beat the market, I have to turn a profit every year. When the market is down, I have to be up. When the market is up, I have to be up. And when the market is sideways, I have to be up. And then they get nervous if I'm not making 'enough" money. For many of them, the minimum acceptable return is 20% a year.

So to recap, I have to never have a temporary drawdown more than a fraction of the acct size. Every year has to be positive, and really every quarter has to be positive because I don't make money unless the client makes money. And then without taking hardly any risk I still need to get >20% annual. It ain't easy.
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Old 20-02-2014, 22:35   #717
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

A system I developed A few years back, The "Ice cream truck" Consists of Loading your yacht full of Items Popular among sailors Somewhere cheap Then anchor near a popular cruising location without coming to close to country boundaries so customs wouldn't throw a fit then I would radio out to nearby cruisers with posted coordinates Offering cheap cigars and whiskey etc. make a few bucks then come into port, stock up on whatever then take to the seas.
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Old 21-02-2014, 03:03   #718
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

Greetings and welcome aboard the CF, Gaffer.
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Old 21-02-2014, 13:17   #719
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

Ameranth is an interesting case study which has implications for decision making.
He was trading spreads, but they were so narrow (1 month) and based on such a specific set of circumstances that his behaviour is better described as gambling.
Some time ago the book Deep Survival was recommended on this forum. It is an interesting read and relevant to cruising sailors.
The author details numerous case studies in which an initial decision was taken to proceed and then a kind of tunnel vision ensued which blinded the participants to changes in the world around them. Instead of aborting the expedition they clung doggedly to their original goals and disaster ensued.
This professional trader at Amaranth ended up with an enormous position in natural gas and kept adding to it. It was only a matter of time before he crashed and burned.
Amaranth is more a story of poor decision making than a commentary on spread trading.

Regards,
Richard.
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Old 21-02-2014, 14:23   #720
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Re: Make Money While Cruising - List

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A system I developed A few years back, The "Ice cream truck" Consists of Loading your yacht full of Items Popular among sailors Somewhere cheap Then anchor near a popular cruising location without coming to close to country boundaries so customs wouldn't throw a fit then I would radio out to nearby cruisers with posted coordinates Offering cheap cigars and whiskey etc. make a few bucks then come into port, stock up on whatever then take to the seas.

I'm finding it hard to believe this!

Is this like sneaking in drugs and then making a radio announcement that they are available.

I seriously doubt your "system" has much life in it as it ends up with you in jail somewhere.
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