Thinning water - Lk Ontario

[No_Agenda]

We are in Monroe Michigan on Lake Erie, the water at our dock is at least 1 foot higher than last year. It dropped about a foot in the last week but it is still very high.

[Mike OReilly]

Looking at the historic data for L. Ontario, I’d say the levels have become significantly less volatile since the Seaway was finished. You can see the historic data line at the link I posted earlier. It’s a fun tool to play around with b/c you can select any range of years from the first data point (1918) onward.

I tend to agree with TP. I think we have very short memories, so we do a lousy job of actually seeing long-term trends. I also think we’ve got a lot more use of the Lake shore (not just boaters), which then annoys a lot more people than it used to, and produces all the political brouhaha.

There is a long-term trend of declining water levels in the upper lakes. According to the research I’ve read, the most likely cause is due to increased water losses during winter months as the Lakes experience less freezing because of climate change.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Looking at the historic data for L. Ontario, I’d say the levels have become significantly less volatile since the Seaway was finished. You can see the historic data line at the link I posted earlier. It’s a fun tool to play around with b/c you can select any range of years from the first data point (1918) onward.

I tend to agree with TP. I think we have very short memories, so we do a lousy job of actually seeing long-term trends. I also think we’ve got a lot more use of the Lake shore (not just boaters), which then annoys a lot more people than it used to, and produces all the political brouhaha.

There is a long-term trend of declining water levels in the upper lakes. According to the research I’ve read, the most likely cause is due to increased water losses during winter months as the Lakes experience less freezing because of climate change.

There are 100 YO photos of people standing in the Sodus Bay channel, standing on wet sand. Granted, the channel is dredged these days when it gets down to ~11ft, but fact is before water was controlled there were immense variations in water depth.


In my lifetime Sodus Bay has changed markedly, primarily with silting. Where I swam as a child is not swamp. Where we fished carp 15 years ago is cattail. It doesn't take a lot to figure out that high spring waters "rushing" out later in the year would carry that silt with it, and now it no longer does.


The many swamps and bays behind bars would have been opened in Spring too.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

There are 100 YO photos of people standing in the Sodus Bay channel, standing on wet sand. Granted, the channel is dredged these days when it gets down to ~11ft, but fact is before water was controlled there were immense variations in water depth.
...

Yes, I agree. The data shows less volatility in Lake Ontario since the Seaway was built. But people has short perspectives, and even shorter memories. That, and the fact that we have more people using the shoreline, means that whenever the waters rise or fall a bit there are a lot more people to complain about it.

Water levels are more consistent in Lake Ontario since the seaway. We seem to be managing it reasonably well, at least over this short term. But if I were a bettin' man I’d place odds against that we will continue to be as successful in the mid to long term as the whole continental hydrosphere becomes more erratic.

[30yearslater]

OK, I figured go straight to the source: International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board Joe Fiss We have very little control over Lake Ontario levels. The only factor we "control" per se is outflows. Inflows are all natural and vary well beyond the range in which we can control outflows. Thus was their reply. For the thread it is on facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Internation..._comment_reply Quite a discussion.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Water levels are more consistent in Lake Ontario since the seaway. We seem to be managing it reasonably well, at least over this short term. But if I were a bettin' man I’d place odds against that we will continue to be as successful in the mid to long term as the whole continental hydrosphere becomes more erratic.

Frankly, "we" humans are managing in/outflow that, in the big scheme of things, isn't that variable. Winter snow melt, summer flash floods. Summer/fall drop due to outflow. A 1 meter change from "something in the past" may be big news to us now on the GL, but the lake really doesn't care, it adapts and returns to norm.


People went bananas last year about high water, and now are concerned about low water. I say, well you should have seen the variation 100 years ago.



Weather change, call it global warming or whatever, on Lake Ontario may be big news to us humans. But in my observation the damage done to the ecosystem by weather change/GW is peanuts compared to damage due to human interruption- reduced flow and agricultural chemicals in particular.

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by AnglaisInHull

Yes, definitely check the levels on Lake Ontario before making plans. There are places we went into in the Thousand Islands last year that I couldn’t get close to this season.

Yes but last year the water levels in Lake Ontario were at record highs with lots of coastal flooding. Even now levels are slightly above normal. The south shore seems to have lots of shallow harbours anyway. I've "dredged" my way into Wilson, NY a number of times (previous boat had 5ft draft). My current boat has only 4ft draft (long keel) and I have currently no issues in most places. I can even get into Port Darlington (currently docked) which is notorious for being a place limited to the little boats and fishing boats (my reward is reasonably priced dockage and storage!!!)

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

Frankly, "we" humans are managing in/outflow that, in the big scheme of things, isn't that variable. Winter snow melt, summer flash floods. Summer/fall drop due to outflow. A 1 meter change from "something in the past" may be big news to us now on the GL, but the lake really doesn't care, it adapts and returns to norm.

People went bananas last year about high water, and now are concerned about low water. I say, well you should have seen the variation 100 years ago.

Weather change, call it global warming or whatever, on Lake Ontario may be big news to us humans. But in my observation the damage done to the ecosystem by weather change/GW is peanuts compared to damage due to human interruption- reduced flow and agricultural chemicals in particular.

Yes, as I noted, the variation in Lake Ont. water levels has been smaller since the Seaway construction. I think the issue of people going bananas is a combination of short memories and the fact that there are more and more people living and using the shoreline. If we'd get smart and stop people from building right to the shoreline and in floodplains there would be fewer issues. But that gets back to our short memories.

My comment about climate change is just that we're headed into a period of greater weather volatility. All our systems (like the Seaway) are built to manage the current range of weathers. Climate change means the past decreasingly is a guide for future weather.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

If we'd get smart and stop people from building right to the shoreline and in floodplains there would be fewer issues.

Too late for that. Since water on Lake Ontario was regulated people have built along virtually every available shoreline.


Floodplains I just don't get. Don't people see the lay of the land? That area by the creek- see, it's flat. Them trees- they're stunted, not like the big trees over there. What could that possibly mean? Is this rocket science? Did people fall asleep during geography class?



Ummm...when you buy a house in USA it is, with few exceptions, mandatory to buy flood insurance. Does anyone not question why that might be? I don't have flood insurance, it was waived. We had 7" of rain in 2 hours last week. My basement is dry. Other homes went bye-bye.



10 years ago two cottages on the barrier bar were washed away. What to do? REBUILD! Yep. Makes sense...right?


Here is one that's so funny I'd not believe it myself if I didn't see it. We watched a home being built on the flats of a 200' wide glen. Gorgeous view, deck looks right at the 20' waterfall less than 100' away. How in god's name did they get a C of O or even a permit to build? I can't imagine any insurance company would insure such a structure in that location (but, then again, I'll bet they indeed do have insurance, because, well...)

[30yearslater]

Well I made it in and out yesterday going west. Despite the waves the water was sufficiently deep to avoid that awful crunching noise. A keel is a really lousy depth sounder. I agree with TP on the building along the shoreline. Not only have the houses proliferated along every inch of shoreline but they have been built bigger and more expensive. Additions to existing houses have been willingly approved by the various zoning boards. In a word. Taxes. These idiots know a cash cow when they see one. The periodic anomaly that floods the dimwits out is never a concern just get 'em rebuilt and collect the taxes. Then we get the other politicos whipping people into a frenzy looking to burn a convenient witch for their political gain. At least until they get busted for insider trading. One thing is for certain. We will continue to experience periods of high and low water. Once we dispatch with the illusion of 'control' we can adapt our behavior to reality. Floating rather than fixed docks, more dredging, less building on the shore being but a few adaptations. None of this will be inexpensive. The other alternative will remain, rouse the villagers and break out the torches and pitchforks and go hunt the monster which will solve nothing.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by 30yearslater

...One thing is for certain. We will continue to experience periods of high and low water. Once we dispatch with the illusion of 'control' we can adapt our behavior to reality. Floating rather than fixed docks, more dredging, less building on the shore being but a few adaptations. None of this will be inexpensive. The other alternative will remain, rouse the villagers and break out the torches and pitchforks and go hunt the monster which will solve nothing.

So true… Speaking of which, I have a buddy who lives right on the shores of L. Ontario. Actually, he lives ON the lake. He built his house (a two-story affair) on pontoons in a protected bay. It rises and falls with the season.

He did it to avoid taxes, or some such thing (apparently he was in a fight with the municipality), but it’s the perfect solution if you want to live right on the shoreline.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

So true… Speaking of which, I have a buddy who lives right on the shores of L. Ontario. Actually, he lives ON the lake. He built his house (a two-story affair) on pontoons in a protected bay. It rises and falls with the season.

He did it to avoid taxes, or some such thing (apparently he was in a fight with the municipality), but it’s the perfect solution if you want to live right on the shoreline.

There was a local guy that did similar. He built this huge, ugly "cottage" (probably 4500 sq. ft.) on the barrier bar. His immense, expensive and ugly boathouse was built on pontoons. Unfortunately for him (fortunately for us who had to look at it) he failed to plan for last year's high water; the boathouse dumped off one side of the pontoon dock and submerged. It is now gone. Thank God.


A sad trend for the past decade or so is for rich out of town NYC types to buy waterfront property, tear down the home, and rebuild a million dollar mansion.



Towns love it for the taxes; sadly the multi-generation cottages are also taxed at these new outrageous rates, so cottages that have been in the family for 100 years have to be sold.


Inside me, I wish we'd just let the water level do a full, unobstructed swing for five years...and get rid of these new mansions and the type of people that build them.

[john61ct]

Don't worry, coming soon whether we "let" it happen or not.

Whether things look pretty or not will be the least of our concerns, when survival is threatened.

[30yearslater]

What puzzles me is, the historical experience of building right to the shoreline is well known. The periods of high and low water are well known. Despite this the **%@*$g mental defectives have continued to build or expand existing structures. Who does this and what imbecile issues a building permit? Who builds on a damn sand bar such as Edgemere Dr? For the benefit of those who have no idea what we are talking about here is the satellite image of the Lake Ontario State Parkway. https://www.google.com/maps/@43.2933.../data=!3m1!1e3
You can expand to view just how insane this all is.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by 30yearslater

What puzzles me is, the historical experience of building right to the shoreline is well known. The periods of high and low water are well known. Despite this the **%@*$g mental defectives have continued to build or expand existing structures. Who does this and what imbecile issues a building permit? Who builds on a damn sand bar such as Edgemere Dr? For the benefit of those who have no idea what we are talking about here is the satellite image of the Lake Ontario State Parkway. https://www.google.com/maps/@43.2933.../data=!3m1!1e3
You can expand to view just how insane this all is.

Humans have very short historical memories, and even shorter lives, when compared to geological and climactic time frames. We’re amazing when it comes to short-term memory and analysis. But our scale is too small to deal with these slow-moving (to us) continental or global issues. It’s part of the reason we can’t get our collective heads around the whole climate change problem — it seems to be a problem beyond our capacity.

… that, and there’s too much money and political power tied up in the status quo, which is the same reason people keep building below the Lake’s high water mark.