Originally Posted by atoll
what sort of wind
strenth and and direction do you think we will be getting by the end of the month,our ultimate destination
is pattaya,any tips?
Currently E Asia
is in the second inter-monsoon of the calendar year, with the next season with reliable prevailing wind being the Northeast Monsoon likely to start in late Nov or early Dec.
The Madden Julian Oscillation drives the intensity of local weather
. Predicting the MJO is not easy. The US NOAA Climate Prediction Center aggregates the forecasts for the MJO on: CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Madden - Julian Oscillation
If you follow the MJO predictions, you get a feel for which national met bureau is better in a particular season. I like the Taiwan
Burea (TCWB). If you hover your pointer over the TWCB bar, you will see their forecast
The MJO peak has been slopping around the Maritime Continent (i.e. maritime SE Asia) and the West Pacific.
The results are clear: the ITCZ has remained 3 - 5 deg N of the Equator (even though we're two weeks past the equinox); cyclogenesis in the NW Pac has continued; the series of Low Pressure Areas that have developed (some fading, some developing by cyclogenesis into typhoons that then head
N towards Japan) have continued pulling winds over the Kra Peninsula into the NW Pac. Depending on where a LPA is, the winds have varied in direction from S to W.
The best large scale reporting of the best numeric model for the region is done by Singapore
Agency. Each day Singapore NEA publishes a forecast
for tomorrow at 07 hours local. The forecast is presented as a graphic of surface streamlines (at 10 m above sea level, which is just about right for the metacentre of Led Myne's sailplan). Of course, surface streamlines are only valid for, say, greater than 5 nMiles off the coast because land- and sea-breeze, island effect, etc disrupt the theoretical gradient wind in locations close to coasts, islands, and in the lee of mountains.
See the Singapore NEA Regional Weather Chart
(and check their hourly satellite images
of ASEAN too). Tomorrow's forecast will be released early afternoon Singapore time.
Zygrib (and some other software) shows CAPE and CIN values from GRIBs. As you likely know, high CAPE values (eg 2 kJ/kg) with low CIN values guarantee weather phenomena that aren't fun to experience on a small vessel.
The US Navy
publicly releases small scale surface streamline forecasts on its Fleet Numeric MOC website and has forecasts to more than 144 hours ahead. The US Navy
has a particular interest in the South China
Sea, so their forecasts are interesting.
Bottom line is the state of the season: SE Asia
is in the 2nd inter-monsoon of the calendar year. Expect light variable winds, with S and W winds slightly more dominant that other winds, punctuated by occasional squalls associated with high CAPE values, and a fair chance for predawn or afternoon thunderstorms.
The Singapore NEA has a few educational resources freely available on their website. And in 2012 they published a neat book 'The Weather and Climate of Singapore' which you can buy from their office.