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Old 06-08-2007, 05:41   #31
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Originally Posted by ssullivan

Anyway, definitely run from the chinese diesel engine. All politics aside, you will have to install engines every year or so if you get one. Do your country a favor and buy something made within its borders. Fight globalism with your wallet.

.
Sean, just because you and a few other's you know have had a bad experience does not mean all Chinese diesels are crap.

It does not mean everything Chinese is crap.

Theis is a very xenophobic attitude to have.

If you look at post 16, there are link's to Audi, VW, Toyota, Nissan, Deutz and there would be plenty of other examples all made in China.

Are you saying these are crap???

Dave
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Old 06-08-2007, 05:47   #32
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. On the upside, when the baby boomers die (no offense intended... it will happen to all of us), there will be a glut of housing here that just might not be filled up by all the new immigrants. A lot of bommers have more than one house. THEN we might see the prices come in line with wages.

.
Not Just Baby Boomers with a flock of houses Sean.

Plenty of Gen X and Y following the BB's.

Dave
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Old 06-08-2007, 05:58   #33
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Originally Posted by rickm505
I make my living in the mortgage industry. Late last week the secondary mortgage markets collapsed. What this means is that in addition to the free fall in stock prices, credit availability has almost come to a complete stop.... I have a meeting this morning to discuss options in advance of the Fed meeting tomorrow.

The last time this happened it was 1929.

Look out folks, this isn't a good thing....
Hi Rick,

What is you take on the reasoning these loan's are falling over,

Is it

Borrowers not understanding the contract's eg: going from a fixed low interest rate to a higher variable, and being leveraged to high.


Borrower's being suckered into the lure of easy money combined with irresponsible spending habit's eg: got a house loan AND they'll give me money for a new car, plasma tv and a mobile phone for every orifice.

Borrowers feeling they are missing out by NOT getting in the property market and then buying at artificialy inflated prices , combined with the above 2.

Something else.

Rick, bear in mind I am in OZ so we don't get to hear to much about it unless we hunt it down, and then it's only a Media viewpoint.

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Old 06-08-2007, 11:41   #34
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"China can OBVIOUSLY make good stuff"
Heck, monkeys at a typewriter can also churn out Shakespeare.

The difference here, is that if you are a global corporation and you come to China and say "We'll invest a hundred billion in co-development so we can hold a 49% ownership interest in your huge domestic marketplace" the Chinese government--who ends up with the other 51% one way or the other--finds ways to take special care of you, and to place highly favored people in the mix. (Pretty much the same way the White House keeps finding Halliburton contracts.<G>)

The megacorporation that can help build China's Official Future gets treated very differently from the small player, who finds "Official NFL" souvenirs being made in his factory all day every day--and a whole second shift making unlicensed bootlegs of them ON THE SAME EQUIPMENT EVERY NIGHT.

Ask Disney. Any Disney DVD you want, indistinguishable from the original in every way, way less than a dollar in parts of China that are well known--and protected by the government there. These are not just cottage industries, this is more akin to the official sanctioning of bootlegging during Prohibition. China just seems to do it so well, and so blatantly.

Dave-
What has happened in the US mortgage market are "predatory lenders". Over the past 20+ years, many companies have somehow found masses of capital from greedy investors (or drug profits?) and lent it out in amazing ways.
Got no proof of income? Got a prior bankruptcy? No problem, they'll charge you five extra points or give you an adjustable rate and even give you cash at the closing--based on the equity in rising markets. There have been longstanding tv infomercials and courses ($4000?) teahing people how to get these loans, ignore the costs, file the papers (frankly, outright illegally in many cases) and flip the homes to make more profits before they'll have to pay bills.
Oh, and the predatory lenders? They don't care if you can pay or not, because they hope you CAN'T pay, so they can foreclose and then sell the property on that same rising market. So what if you're bankrupt--they make more money by taking the property, as long as the market keeps rising quickly enough.
Then there have been outright criminal collusions, where appraisers will overappraise in order to make sure all the numbers add up, too. This has become a big and unregulated business in the US over the past 20 years, and now, funny thing, like any pyramid scheme it is reaching a peak and collapsing.
The problem is, some of the money behind it seems to have come from everywhere (after all, who does't want high returns?) and the repercussions may get very ugly. Like our stock market (another game that would and should be illegal) where the Dow went up over 14,000 and fell back to something like 13,250 in two weeks time, partly because folks are having to sell stocks to cover losses, partly because folks are just worried about what's coming.

But, that's the free market. Any idiot with gobs of money (lord knows how they got it in the first place) is allowed to throw it away. Allowed, and if they watch late night TV, even encouraged.

Kinda like when the salesman says "Hey buddy, have I got a great bargain for you in a Chinese diesel, from a company you never heard of, with no reputation or track record, but MAN ARE THEY A GREAT DEAL!"
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Old 06-08-2007, 12:25   #35
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Originally Posted by cat man do
Sean, just because you and a few other's you know have had a bad experience does not mean all Chinese diesels are crap.

It does not mean everything Chinese is crap.

Theis is a very xenophobic attitude to have.

If you look at post 16, there are link's to Audi, VW, Toyota, Nissan, Deutz and there would be plenty of other examples all made in China.

Are you saying these are crap???

Dave
Not sure, Dave. I can't say if these Audi, VW, Toyota, Nissan, Deutz or whatever engines are crap because I don't have them available to purchase on this side of the Pacific (as I said earlier responding to you).

I have "China Diesel" brand engines which are knock offs of whatever company was foolish enough to allow their plans into the hands of these Chinese manufacturers. The "china diesels" here are not sold by any of the mainstream engine companies. I think mine was called a "David" engine. The one I had in particular was a Yanmar knock off. The real Yanmar I got to replace it runs like a top at 300 hours and not a single problem. Just oil changes.

Again, I said that we do not get any good Chinese products on this side of the Pacific. I'm not sure how this is xenophobic in any way.... just the facts. We have no chinese Deutz diesels to purchase. No Chinese Yanmars, etc... We just have garbage at about 1/4 to 1/3 the price of real ones.

I will stick with my "everything Chinese is crap" statement though - at least if you're buying it on this side of the Pacific. Also, if I'm not protecting my own people by purchasing things from them instead of the Chinese, who will? My government?? ha ha ha! Puppets is all they are.

Hellosailor has it all right on the money with is post.
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Old 06-08-2007, 12:52   #36
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Originally Posted by cat man do
Not Just Baby Boomers with a flock of houses Sean.

Plenty of Gen X and Y following the BB's.

Dave
Dave, you are mis-informed on this point, even about your own country. Have a read:

Generation Y Blog Blog Archive Home Ownership Harder For Gen Y

That article is about your own Gen Y popuplation.

In the states, Gen X and Y make up a paltry percentage of home owners and were by and large the largest victims of the lending scandal since our incomes don't match up with the inflated home prices. Baby boomers I know (in my personal sphere) AVERAGE an ownership of 1.7 houses each. My mother owns 3!! How many do I have? 0.

I have posted the number before in that Chinese meat grinder thread. I'm not going to repost. The summary is that houses are inflated while wages are down and this all happened AFTER baby boomers were able to easily afford their houses. It takes an astonishing number of years for someone to pay off a house who makes $20-$50K per year (before losing 33-50% of that money to income taxes, depending on location). They also have to carve out huge expenses for health care, mandatory insurance, fuel, work clothing, taxes on the house if they are lucky enough to save the downpayment up over 5 or 10 years of work, etc... etc...

Dave, I have a circle of probably 20 people I know in Gen X and Y here in the states. Out of all of them, only 2 people own their own home. One was through an inheritance. The other through an Adjustable Rate Mortgage. They'll be lucky to keep it. They are struggling like crazy to pay the mortgage that just increased by $400 per month as the rates went up.

Here's another link for you. This one is a little bit cheezy, I'll admit it. It's more of a promo for a book, but the words are clear and accurate. I'm pasting the words in to finish off this post, since they are tough to read on the site (bad color choices for the font/background).

Here's the link:

Thick Real Estate Blog Archive It’s GenX/GenY versus the Baby Boomers, Round 1 (XY vs. BB). Let’s Get It On!




BEGIN PASTED TEXT-----

The next twenty years will be defined not by the battles between Christians vs. Muslims, Dems vs. Reps or Coke vs. Pepsi.

No, it'll be the epic financial and cultural battle between GenX/GenY and the Baby Boomers that will dominate from this point forward. With the first Boomers retiring, America $50 Trillion in debt and growing, GenX/GenY unable to afford a home, and the country facing the complete destruction of its manufacturing base, the battle has begun whether you see it or not.

By the way, I've got my money on the Baby Boomers winning this battle. X/Y are just too damn lazy, clueless and uninterested to compete against the greediest and most self-interested generation of all time. But if the Baby Boomers win this battle, America will become insolvent, and the Boomers kids and their kids and the idiots who bought US bonds will be left holding the bag.

The housing crash is just the start. If X/Y don't buy the depreciating homes of the Boomers, who based their retirements on that one asset (and X/Y keeping the entitlements Ponzi Scheme going), then the battle will have been joined.

X/Y vs. BB - Let's get it on.

In 2030, as 77 million baby boomers hobble into old age, walkers will outnumber strollers; there will be twice as many retirees as there are today but only 18 percent more workers.

How will America handle this demographic overload? How will Social Security and Medicare function with fewer working taxpayers to support these programs?

According to Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns, if our government continues on the course it has set, we'll see skyrocketing tax rates, drastically lower retirement and health benefits, high inflation, a rapidly depreciating dollar, unemployment, and political instability.

Here is another link that seems to sum things up pretty well, except that
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Old 06-08-2007, 16:11   #37
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Loved the first link Sean, an Oz one, well done.

Generation Y Blog Blog Archive Home Ownership Harder For Gen Y

Have to say, getting pretty sick of all the whinging softcock's over here bleating about housing unaffordability.

Seem's to me and others that it is more a case of Gen Y wanting it all now.

They lived in Mummy and Daddy's nice house for too long, and when they move out they want the same.

Forget about the fact that their parent's lived in a peice of crap miles from anywhere as a first home with old sheet's for curtains and discarded furniture.

The young of today could'nt lower themselves to do that.

So instead they buy flashy car's, eat out all the time, drink $5-00 coffee's, wear designer clothes and continualy bitch about how tough it is for them to get ahead.

In Brisbane there are plenty of places that are cheap, close to rail and major arterial road's like this one
Real Estate, Property, Land and Homes for Sale, lease and rent - realestate.com.au

and there are plenty, over 20 pages under $200k, and this is southside, havent gone north or west

Real Estate, Property, Land and Homes for Sale, lease and rent - realestate.com.au

But most of the Gen Y won't live in these percieved undesirable areas and instead feel they have a right to this

Real Estate, Property, Land and Homes for Sale, lease and rent - realestate.com.au


Funny how 10 year's ago they could'nt give New Farm away, as it was where all the working class and Hookers hang out.

This is exactly what my younger cousin's live like and feel they have a right to.

They would never think of a concept called "Delayed Gratification" to get ahead, instead, like America, buy property they can't afford, cars they cant afford etc etc.

They use NO-Doc loan's as well, and have credit card's racked to the hilt.

What some people need to understand is that since day dot, property has gone up in cycles, the smart people buy at the bottom of a cycle and the not so bright have to jump on board and end up buying at the top of the cycle.

There is a bust, property washes off some value, people hocked to the eyball's will lose the lot.

Those with plenty of equity and who did not spend every available cent, have no need to sell, so lose nothing. Sure, it may take year's for the property to get up to where it was, but as they bought low, they are already well in front of the ones that buy at the top.

Guess who will be in a position to buy more property at the reduced price?

Guess who will bitch about the rich property owner's.

Like America, Australia is full of bottom feeder's selling overpriced property, with NO deposit, on great interest rates ( which will reset in a few year's)

Cedar View at Redbank Plains

Nautical Edge : Coomera

Look familiar maybe ?

But we also have a thing called DUE DILLIGENCE, but it would seem few use it, instead buying with their heart and not their head.



Dave

PS, I also don't believe all the media hype. I notice the media is all stories of woe, but never stories about those that actually can and have, made it work.
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Old 06-08-2007, 17:47   #38
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Dave, it is not all whining. The college grads of the late 60's faced a very different job market than the early 70's, and the open-ended growth and easy success of the 50's had already gone. Things have been changing in the US and not necessarily for the better in all ways. Most of our transportation system was "finished" by the 70's, and if it was possible to buy a home and commute an hour each way to work by road--now it is routine to commute 2+ hours each way for many people, but their salaries are no longer comparable and the housing prices are comparably higher.
There's a large and long discussion in the US about the "death of the middle class" with most folks either being pushed into poverty (no annual raises, no progress track at work, multiple part-time shifts with no beneftis being used to replace full timers, etc.) by more aggressive corporate politics, while others magically are transported into the land of McMansions and multiple luxury cars seemingly without any logic.

Sure, some folks can make it work. Sure, enterprising newcomers can eat rice all month and sleep eight to a room and save money to get a home started. But that ISN'T how it used to be, and arguably isn't how it SHOULD be now. We've slid a long way backwards in terms of standards of living in the US, and many complaints are from folks who see the progress their parents made (like, went to college and got a good paying job automatically) simply no longer available. (Go to college, get hired as a part timer at a burger place, with rent totally impossible to make.)

The success stories? For every one you hear about incredible luck and hard work, you hear ten more about whores and thieves stealing their way to the top. The Ciprianis (two top-tier NYC restaurants) just got convicted of stealing $10 million in sales taxes that they somehow managed to collect but not pass on to the State, and they are getting to stay out of jail while they pay it back. This is becoming the new Horatio Alger story in America: Steal your way to the top, because there's no other way to make it. Same reason so many ghetto kids go into drugs, figuring they'll either make it, or get killed, and they don't see any reason not to take the chance.
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Old 06-08-2007, 18:19   #39
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I have to agree with what's being discussed here, although it probably belongs in the off topic area. I'd like to hear less about religion and impeachment from politicians and more about what they are going to do to at least begin to fix the mess we're in and the bigger mess we are heading for. We're at the point where we simply can't afford politicians any longer. We need strong competent leadership with a clear direction.... I must be tired... I just put competent leadership and politician in the same sentence.
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Old 06-08-2007, 21:26   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hellosailor
Dave, it is not all whining. The college grads of the late 60's faced a very different job market than the early 70's, and the open-ended growth and easy success of the 50's had already gone. Things have been changing in the US and not necessarily for the better in all ways. Most of our transportation system was "finished" by the 70's, and if it was possible to buy a home and commute an hour each way to work by road--now it is routine to commute 2+ hours each way for many people, but their salaries are no longer comparable and the housing prices are comparably higher.

There's a large and long discussion in the US about the "death of the middle class" with most folks either being pushed into poverty (no annual raises, no progress track at work, multiple part-time shifts with no beneftis being used to replace full timers, etc.) by more aggressive corporate politics, while others magically are transported into the land of McMansions and multiple luxury cars seemingly without any logic.

Sure, some folks can make it work. Sure, enterprising newcomers can eat rice all month and sleep eight to a room and save money to get a home started. But that ISN'T how it used to be, and arguably isn't how it SHOULD be now. We've slid a long way backwards in terms of standards of living in the US, and many complaints are from folks who see the progress their parents made (like, went to college and got a good paying job automatically) simply no longer available. (Go to college, get hired as a part timer at a burger place, with rent totally impossible to make.)

The success stories? For every one you hear about incredible luck and hard work, you hear ten more about whores and thieves stealing their way to the top. The Ciprianis (two top-tier NYC restaurants) just got convicted of stealing $10 million in sales taxes that they somehow managed to collect but not pass on to the State, and they are getting to stay out of jail while they pay it back. This is becoming the new Horatio Alger story in America: Steal your way to the top, because there's no other way to make it. Same reason so many ghetto kids go into drugs, figuring they'll either make it, or get killed, and they don't see any reason not to take the chance.
Hello Hellosailor,

I realise it's not ALL whining, but I do believe that there are plenty of them.

Unfortunately, they alway's seem to get the voice of the media.

No doubt it is tough, but the fact is that some people can get ahead as shown in red, which go'es againt what you say in blue.

And while what yo said in green, may be true, times are changing, it's not as easy as it was anywhere anymore, and the ones that will win in the future are the ones that can addapt and work with the hand that's dealt.

Sad but true.

Sean got dealt a fairly rough hand a while back, and I sympathise with him ,but there are many more out there that just choose not to have a go at it, and for them I have no sympathy at all.

Dave
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Old 06-08-2007, 22:10   #41
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I agree that things are a mess. I belive that the sub prime debacale is only a medium term problem. The over heated markets especially in Florida and the southwest will equilize all be it with considrable pain. The longterm problems are four fold.
1. The huge federal deficit.
2. The huge current account deficit.
3. Underfunded Social security
4. Medical Care cost that is escalating at over 8% a year.

If and only if changes are instituted quickly can these problems be overcome. If not a major collapse may happen in the U.S. and what happens there effects the whole world because of the intergration of markets. This is especially true to us in Canada.

It is difficult to say what should be done, but this what we have done withsimilar problems.

1. In the early 90's we had a huge deficit and it caused the Can$ to deprciate to as low as 65 cents. The government raised taxes and cut services and transfers to the provinces. After years of this we finally went into fiscal surplus and have been paying down the National Debt since 2000, and the dollar has appreciated against all currancys, especially the U.S. dollar.

2. This has been good luck since commodities that we sell, especially oil have had huge increases in price. Our manufacturing sector is suffering, but because of the dollar many industries are making new capital purchases. Commodity prices may soften abit, but unless a global catastrophy happens it should remain stustainable.

3. Also in the early 90's the Canada Pension Plan (our social security) was changed to be fully funded. It also moved from treasury bills to the market and now is purchasing whole companies similarly to our major private pension plans. We all pay more into the plan, but it is fully funded and indexed for the next 50 to 75 years

4. This is more difficult because of our government medical system. It has its problems, but most of them are being solved and the cost growing at a more manageable 5%.

It took tough decisions from politicians and a willingness of most people to have short term pain for long term gain. And the last 7 years have been very good.

I dont know if there is enough time to put these or other solutions into place, but if it doesn't happen we are all up the creek.

As it is I am underweighted in the U.S. and will be for the forseeable future.
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Old 07-08-2007, 01:42   #42
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Do i get a prize for starting a thread that has got so far off topic???? :-)
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Old 07-08-2007, 02:29   #43
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Yeah ya do !! How do we transfer this to the off topic area?
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Old 07-08-2007, 07:17   #44
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Sorry. You are right. I just got ccaught up in the moment with so many excellent opinions
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Old 11-08-2007, 13:31   #45
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Well I don't know about you guy's...but I am going to put on my little drab green Peoples Army duds, sported with my red starred cap and goose step to red square. If ya can't beat em...join em!
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