$ vs. Euro for purchase of French Cats

[yah mon]

Here a link for who wants to follow slaughter real time.
http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdan...symbol=EUR/USD

[Barra]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

I think you could see it trading at 0.80c to the dollar in 12 months.

This is a huger shakeout that we are now seeing and the slide is only picking up momentum.

If you are right then you could short the EUR USD and pay for your boat with the profit. Any reasoning on how the cross could get to that particular level or is it just "the trend is your friend"?

You may be right but its an extreme outlier at those levels and I'll happily take your bet. I'm smart enough to know that no one knows where financial markets will be in 12 months these days since we are in completely uncharted territory. One thing I do know though is that if the USD gets to those kind of levels that quickly then it will be signalling some very serious financial imbalances indeed.

The kind that would make the GFC look like a warning tremor. A boat could be a pretty good option to be living on in those kinda times.


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[Zzmeyer]

Agree. I get all my financial advice on websites about boats. Best way to make money is to buy a boat and wait until the value goes up

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by Barra

If you are right then you could short the EUR USD and pay for your boat with the profit. Any reasoning on how the cross could get to that particular level or is it just "the trend is your friend"?

You may be right but its an extreme outlier at those levels and I'll happily take your bet. I'm smart enough to know that no one knows where financial markets will be in 12 months these days since we are in completely uncharted territory. One thing I do know though is that if the USD gets to those kind of levels that quickly then it will be signalling some very serious financial imbalances indeed.

The kind that would make the GFC look like a warning tremor. A boat could be a pretty good option to be living on in those kinda times.


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Hi Barra,

Its based on a few things. First the Euro gas traded above the Dollar artificially for many years. While the US market isn't perfect it is still far more dynamic then the Euro Zone. Europe has entrenched serious economic inefficiencies that come from its socialistic structural business environment. It is not competitive in the workplace against Asia or the United States. So in my opinion this realignment has been a long time coming.

Also add to the picture the trend along with an analysis of momentum and you gave a perfect downward spiral for the Euro with no floor in my opinion above .90 and most likely as I said we could see .80. This of course sky own opinion and I am sure someway colored by my planned purchase of a French cat with my US Dollars.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

Hi Barra,

Its based on a few things. First the Euro gas traded above the Dollar artificially for many years. While the US market isn't perfect it is still far more dynamic then the Euro Zone. Europe has entrenched serious economic inefficiencies that come from its socialistic structural business environment. It is not competitive in the workplace against Asia or the United States. So in my opinion this realignment has been a long time coming.

Also add to the picture the trend along with an analysis of momentum and you gave a perfect downward spiral for the Euro with no floor in my opinion above .90 and most likely as I said we could see .80. This of course sky own opinion and I am sure someway colored by my planned purchase of a French cat with my US Dollars.

This is a mis-characterisation of what's going on. ( as demonstrated by your ridiculous " socialistic structural business environment "). As for competitive workplaces, comment , that's quite ridiculous and doesn't stand up to any comparable metrics. What's even funnier is that I would view European politics as well over to the right at the moment.

You do release the slide started on the announcement of the biggest QE program in history. The ECB is determined to provide the Eurozone with a more competitive fiscal position and competitive devaluation. To suggest any valuation is " artificial " is nonsense.

It's funny how the uninformed see currency strength as a parallel for economic progress. Where that so the dollar over the last 20 years would be in the sky.

I do think well see some undershoot all right

Personally I don't think the ECB QE program will work. But a lower euro is brilliant for export orientated business. What's left of the US sailboat suppliers will be decimated if you generalise what's going on on this thread.

Keep buying those Benny's and lagoons etc. Madame Roux will be smiling all the way to the bank. Pity about companies like caterpillar etc though. !!!!

Good luck with all those purchases guys

Dave


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[monte]

That's exactly what Australia did a couple of years ago when the USD/AUD were on par. In fact they made their intentions quite clear and public to allow investors to position themselves accordingly. They stated they wanted to devalue the AUD to stimulate internal growth, increase exports, increase tourism, decrease interest rates etc.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by monte

That's exactly what Australia did a couple of years ago when the USD/AUD were on par. In fact they made their intentions quite clear and public to allow investors to position themselves accordingly. They stated they wanted to devalue the AUD to stimulate internal growth, increase exports, increase tourism, decrease interest rates etc.

Indeed. What viewers are missing in not that the euro is sliding against the dollar ( it is , but) the dollar is gaining ground on a whole basket of currencies, especially since an expected rise in fed rates is imminent. With non US bonds at zero or even negative , it's not surprising the dollar is strengthening.

However it would be madness for the fed to ignore the current " currency wars " . It would be crazy to allow the dollar to rise in value almost uncontrollably. ( see what happened in Switzerland ) I certainly think within the next two years we will see the Fed having to reign in the rise of the dollar or see significant ecomonic domestic downturns otherwise


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[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by yah mon

What you base the info on, do you have a crystal ball?
The euro has already made a massive slide recently, i am not saying we are at the bottom but these trends tend to overshoot and correct. I would imagine there be some heavy resistance at the par level.

lets see who's right.

[Barra]

Originally Posted by monte

That's exactly what Australia did a couple of years ago when the USD/AUD were on par. In fact they made their intentions quite clear and public to allow investors to position themselves accordingly. They stated they wanted to devalue the AUD to stimulate internal growth, increase exports, increase tourism, decrease interest rates etc.

Were it true the worlds central banks had this kind of real power the world might be a financially safer place (or not depending on your point of view). They would certainly like us all to think they are in control but fact is they are all making it up as they go along right now. And the hole is getting ever deeper.

The Australian central bank (rba ) bitched and moaned about an overvalued currency for years but in reality could do very little about it. It was the expectation of rising us rates and falling commodity prices that led to the winding back of the carry trade ( interest rate differentials) that moved our currency.

Just take a look at the recent rate cuts we have had - each time after a quick dip the aud was back to the level before the cut within a day or two.

The same is happening in reverse in the us right now. The fed will try and talk the USD back down but in reality they will be s%&£ing themselves that this USD rally is already getting out of control and will decimate the fragile us recovery.

The euro has whacked QE into the middle of this bull run on the USD and that's why we have seen such large and quick moves on this cross. I agree it will probably overshoot also as thats what markets do but it is naive to roll out the current moves another couple times over .

What's our bet walkabout? Dinner on the loser when we meet up in the med next year? If you win it will cost me the equivalent of a Mexican taco and if I win you will still be so far in front on your boat it won't matter - what say you?😁



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[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by Barra

Were it true the worlds central banks had this kind of real power the world might be a financially safer place (or not depending on your point of view). They would certainly like us all to think they are in control but fact is they are all making it up as they go along right now. And the hole is getting ever deeper.

The Australian central bank (rba ) bitched and moaned about an overvalued currency for years but in reality could do very little about it. It was the expectation of rising us rates and falling commodity prices that led to the winding back of the carry trade ( interest rate differentials) that moved our currency.

Just take a look at the recent rate cuts we have had - each time after a quick dip the aud was back to the level before the cut within a day or two.

The same is happening in reverse in the us right now. The fed will try and talk the USD back down but in reality they will be s%&£ing themselves that this USD rally is already getting out of control and will decimate the fragile us recovery.

The euro has whacked QE into the middle of this bull run on the USD and that's why we have seen such large and quick moves on this cross. I agree it will probably overshoot also as thats what markets do but it is naive to roll out the current moves another couple times over .

What's our bet walkabout? Dinner on the loser when we meet up in the med next year? If you win it will cost me the equivalent of a Mexican taco and if I win you will still be so far in front on your boat it won't matter - what say you?😁



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I like your thinking. As far as a bet goes a good Australian wouldn't miss an opportunity of betting on two flies crawling up the wall.

Dinner in the Med next year on me anyway it goes now. I've already made more than enough no this.

Planning for next year but all hinging on business plans in being able to get the time off.

[Barra]

Originally Posted by Going Walkabout

I like your thinking. As far as a bet goes a good Australian wouldn't miss an opportunity of betting on two flies crawling up the wall.

Dinner in the Med next year on me anyway it goes now. I've already made more than enough no this.

Planning for next year but all hinging on business plans in being able to get the time off.

Good stuff. We are 3 seasons into what was supposed to be 1 season in the med and now wont be leaving for the atlantic till 2016 so we will be around.

[Magic1st]

Excellent thread. As a $ buyer with a 5 year timeline, it makes me think that i should move my timeline up sooner, as to get out of the office and the grind at a better buying time. Maybe buy an FP that i have been wanting (new) and put into charter for 5 years now, as opposed to waiting. Then, get the added benefit of using my vaca the way i want.... And, more (cough) economically.

Thoughts?

[eyecapt]

I recently purchased a L450 and expect delivery in Sept. The company was reluctant to lower the price but eventually did (but not 20%.) i felt better buying from a US Dealer (better communication) and they will be dealing with the warranty issues (inevitable). Also new was still cheaper than what Im seeing used . I think it would be a great time to buy a German Car as well

[Gpolar]

Is the boat price in eur zone dropped too? Anyone in the eur zone now? What do they see?

The Internet price is only the listing price,so it does not tell much.



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[RKsailsolo]

Originally Posted by Gpolar

Is the boat price in eur zone dropped too? Anyone in the eur zone now? What do they see?

The Internet price is only the listing price,so it does not tell much.



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Is it not as simple as input the EURO sales price into your favorite currency converter with the latest exchange rates and find the USD equivalent?