Running From Weather

[Mr B]

Tomorrows weather, 30 knots and snow down to 600 metres,
Cheers,

[malbert73]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I actually ran from this thing almost two weeks ago.
I was in Stuart Fl waiting for a weather window to head North to Brunswick Ga, which calls itself a "Hurricane Hole".
Now of course it was not much back then, but looked like it could become a storm and I was really, really nervous about being in S Fl this time of the year. I was nervous enough that we went offshore in one leg as opposed to meandering up here.

Moral of the story is that 24 hours ago, I was in ground zero, storm was forecasted to pass just offshore of Brunswick which would give us the worst storm surge possible, and I don't think this place could take much storm surge, it appeared that I had jumped from the frying pan into the fire.

However, hopefully if the new track is what actually happens, we may survive.

Oftentimes when it becomes apparent that you need to run, it's too late, most of us don't travel any faster than a quick walk.

How did it go? hopefully your boat is fine after all the work you have done on it.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I actually ran from this thing almost two weeks ago.
I was in Stuart Fl waiting for a weather window to head North to Brunswick Ga, which calls itself a "Hurricane Hole".
Now of course it was not much back then, but looked like it could become a storm and I was really, really nervous about being in S Fl this time of the year. I was nervous enough that we went offshore in one leg as opposed to meandering up here.

Moral of the story is that 24 hours ago, I was in ground zero, storm was forecasted to pass just offshore of Brunswick which would give us the worst storm surge possible, and I don't think this place could take much storm surge, it appeared that I had jumped from the frying pan into the fire.

However, hopefully if the new track is what actually happens, we may survive.

Oftentimes when it becomes apparent that you need to run, it's too late, most of us don't travel any faster than a quick walk.

Yes, case in point, even with all the amazing forecasting technology we have, hurricanes are still hard to predict precisely...and thus you could just be jumping into the fire.

Running S or SW of predicticted track could be considered a high probability of success option, but not 100%...Fantome tried that...and many people died as a result.

The Risk-Reward metrics are pretty stark for a major hurricane. Get it right and you get to live. Get it wrong and you will likely die, badly.

My vote goes with prep very early (days in advance). That could include repositioning, depening on circumstances, if very low risk. And then get outta Dodge! Its just a boat.

[Hoosiersailor]

I'm sitting behind a computer in Indiana so my opinion doesn't matter much but it would seem that if you choose to be in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, South Florida or along the SE coast during August, September or October you better have a plan. If it were me I would know what that plan is well before the hurricane season and starts tracking towards me. I would be ready to implement that plan immediately. Maybe that plan is running before the storm or maybe it is tying off in the mangroves but I wouldn't be thinking, "OMG what do I do now" as something like IRMA was bearing down on me.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by SV Windrush II

Yes bro, better to not be here at all during hurricane season but....

I have been tracking Irma since it birthed in eastern Atlantic. At that time (aproximately 7-8 days ago) it was forcasted to hit BVI and Florida and low and behold, that is exactly what it did. Yes it altered course a tad, west florida coast instead of east florida coast. But if i was in BVI, the last direction i would ever think about escaping to would be anywhere near florida.

And 7 days sailing i could have almost been to Panama by now, not that i would have headed for Panama, i think a more southern passage would be better this time of year

By the way i am on a mooring near typhoon ally here in the Philippines but a 2 day sail to a typhoon free area so no probs for me

But stayig out of BVI during hurricane season is even better

Ran south in the Philippines twice upon hearing of a typhoon on its way. Head back up afterwards. Also the Philippines is abit different, some great typhoon holes.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

If you were in Miami or the Keys is on thing, however me being in Brunswick Ga, where is my escape route?
Until recently this thing was supposed to run up the East coast and I would be running from a well protected Marina into the unknown.
Now if I know then what is known now, I would have headed for Charleston or maybe further North.
However when it's predicted path changed to the West coast of Fl, it seemed the thing to do would be to hunker down.
In my case it's not just my life I would be playing with if I tried to run,but my Wife's as well.

What you may be doing is gambling your life to save a boat. Now my boat is my home, and I finally after three years have her just about the way I want her, and she is irreplaceable.
I doubt that if Irma takes her, I will try again.

However bad I'm going to feel if we lose our home, it is nothing to how I would feel losing my Wife

My mate was in the keys, decided to stay there as Irma was predicted to head more east, after making the decision and preparing the thing went west.

[Brazil]

Originally Posted by Just Another Sa

What about Ivan 2004 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan
Formed September 2, and hit Grenada September 7?
Or
Emily 2005 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_(2005) formed July 10 and hit Grenada July 14?

only 4...5 days from forming to being hit, not much of time to move elsewhere, and prediction of the path not what actual route for the hurricane was. Possible to avoid?
Maybe if reacting fast enough and making correct decisions, but avoiding certainly not guaranteed to be successful if done after it forms.

Yes, but Grenada is only 60 miles from Trinidad. An easy day sail. I would be comfortable spending cane season there and heading south every time a hurricane showed up in the screen.

[Lapincherry]

Another question if you are going to put your vessel up on the hard why do it in the BVI? Grenada points south seem a far better choice.

[zboss]

We kept our boat in our marina at Stock Island and evacuated by car after taking clothes and things of sentimental value. We stayed rather than ran because we were familiar with the marina and could not be sure if we would have found a better place to go. On top of that we are fully insured in case she did sink. So rather than make running from the storm our contingency plan we chose our contingency plan as our primary plan. A marina rated for a cat 3 and full insurance coverage. We were lucky to be spared but if we had not been it would have been an opportunity to start again with a bigger and better boat.

[neilpride]

Tight your belts , time to run from weather...

[poiu]

Originally Posted by neilpride

Tight your belts , time to run from weather...

Now it is.

[JPA Cate]

NOTICE:

According to Bob McDavitt, hurricane Harvey so stirred up the waters in the Gulf of Mexico that the average water temperature is lower than it was pre-Harvey, and that is going to affect the subsequent hurricane tracks.

Ann

[smj]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

NOTICE:



According to Bob McDavitt, hurricane Harvey so stirred up the waters in the Gulf of Mexico that the average water temperature is lower than it was pre-Harvey, and that is going to affect the subsequent hurricane tracks.



Ann

We live about 700 ft. from the Gulf of Mexico and yes the water temperature is unseasonably cool, but then again we've had a cool front come through since Harvey and the land temperatures also have appeared to be unseasonably cool. Can't say whether the Gulf is cool because of Harvey or the cold front.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Hoosiersailor

I'm sitting behind a computer in Indiana so my opinion doesn't matter much but it would seem that if you choose to be in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, South Florida or along the SE coast during August, September or October you better have a plan. If it were me I would know what that plan is well before the hurricane season and starts tracking towards me. I would be ready to implement that plan immediately. Maybe that plan is running before the storm or maybe it is tying off in the mangroves but I wouldn't be thinking, "OMG what do I do now" as something like IRMA was bearing down on me.

Interesting graphic, +/- Sept 10 looks like a good time not to be in the E Carib.

Good time to be sitting here in hurricane free (or at least highly unlikely) Panama.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by smj

We live about 700 ft. from the Gulf of Mexico and yes the water temperature is unseasonably cool, but then again we've had a cool front come through since Harvey and the land temperatures also have appeared to be unseasonably cool. Can't say whether the Gulf is cool because of Harvey or the cold front.

If you look at the seawater temps right now around Jose, you will see they are several degrees colder right where the storm is.
I believe it's because they churn up the water and pull deep water towards the surface.