Running From Weather

[SecondBase]

Originally Posted by danielamartindm

At the time a hurricane rears its head and takes aim at where we are, how many boat owners have a bluewater-capable crew and boat that has been safety inspected, rigged, and stocked for a circumnavigation? To me, heading for blue water to escape a hurricane would seem to demand the same level of preparation and safety considerations as at least an oceanic crossing. And even given that level of preparedness, is your vessel really worth risking your life in a major way?

There are distinct options to escape vs move to a safer hidey hole. Both involve movement. For us an overnight costal run opened up a set of much better options.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

If you were in Miami or the Keys is on thing, however me being in Brunswick Ga, where is my escape route?
Until recently this thing was supposed to run up the East coast and I would be running from a well protected Marina into the unknown.
Now if I know then what is known now, I would have headed for Charleston or maybe further North.
However when it's predicted path changed to the West coast of Fl, it seemed the thing to do would be to hunker down.

Your escape route was north then a left turn up a river, next year.... be someplace else. Meanwhile, strip down the outside of your boat, maybe even the solar panels if wind is expected to exceed 50 knots for a length of time, and do the best you can. When we leave our boat for the winter, the decks are stripped clean of gear, halyards all separated and secured and sails packed away. Absolutely nothing to catch some wind, and the boat is left in a shipyard well away from an area prone to high winds.

It looks like your getting the worst of the winds now and Irma will dissipate inland. Good luck.

[SecondBase]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Why is it that most desktop sailors believe that getting away from bad weather looks like the Hollyweird movie "The Perfect Storm" with 200ft waves? When one leaves early enough, it's nothing more than smooth sailing as pictured in the video.... as most experienced cruisers will concur.

.

That was my experience on Tuesday's overnight run. Dead flat, lake water, in the morning calm. You can see the sea state photos in the "miami - sailboat" thread. But "early" means leaving well before everyday Americans begin to take it seriously.

If the time to reef is the first time you think about it then the time to run is the 3rd time someone mentions the storm to you or you see other boaters taking ANY preparation step.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by danielamartindm

At the time a hurricane rears its head and takes aim at where we are, how many boat owners have a bluewater-capable crew and boat that has been safety inspected, rigged, and stocked for a circumnavigation? To me, heading for blue water to escape a hurricane would seem to demand the same level of preparation and safety considerations as at least an oceanic crossing. And even given that level of preparedness, is your vessel really worth risking your life in a major way?

Not the case at all. Raid your kitchen cabinets at home, fuel up early (don't wait until everyone else has the same idea), turn the key and go.

Originally Posted by danielamartindm

In THIS case, the forecast track was fairly stable. That is not always the case, and the storm could have made the same decision to track further south that your hypothetical sailor did. Everyone has a personal comfort factor when it comes to risking their lives.

And by that time you would be hundreds of miles out of harms way if action had begun early enough. Watch my video.... smooth sailing before the storm, no lives at risk. Stop watching Hollyweird movies.

Originally Posted by Inexorable

I can't say what someone should or shouldn't do, I can only comment on what my wife and I have done. We live aboard is St. Pete and have dealt with many hurricanes over the years. Some were nothing to worry about, many greatly overhyped by the media, none that have hit us directly.
Seeing the track about a week ago and knowing the uncertainty in prediction models we decided to wait and see. When the track was shifted east there was some relief and it felt like we could be in the clear. We both have full time jobs so getting out of town isn't an easy maneuver. It would mean I'd have to reschedule many patients and my wife would be leaving her company unexpectedly for at least a week.
I decided it wasn't worth the risk to stay in St Pete despite it being tracked on the eastern side of the state. I wanted to leave Wednesday, but the wife's schedule wouldn't allow until Thursday afternoon. I figured I had enough time to get west far enough to avoid the hurricane, going all the way to Houston if necessary. We left and kept an eye on the weather seeing the track push west which kept us pushing a little farther west.
In hindsight it was the right move as the storm is tracking right over Tampa. For me it wasn't a decision about saving the boat, but saving us, we are fully insured. There is a much better chance the storm hits Jacksonville than New Orleans, so I'll sail to NOLA rather than drive north to a hotel. I can't think of any logistical obstacles that would have made me not pick up and run. I wish more had done the same and I pray they all make it through this unscathed.

Do this, above and below.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ_givDWIGY

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Your escape route was north then a left turn up a river, next year.... be someplace else. Meanwhile, strip down the outside of your boat, maybe even the solar panels if wind is expected to exceed 50 knots for a length of time, and do the best you can. When we leave our boat for the winter, the decks are stripped clean of gear, halyards all separated and secured and sails packed away. Absolutely nothing to catch some wind, and the boat is left in a shipyard well away from an area prone to high winds.



It looks like your getting the worst of the winds now and Irma will dissipate inland. Good luck.

Where I am I believe is extremely well protected from wind, but possibly vulnerable to storm surge. I stripped the boat down two days ago in beautiful, calm weather. In Ga we have an astronomically high tide now (8 ft) and at high tide there is only about 6 or maybe 7 feet of piling left for the floating docks, low tide of course that number is 15 feet or so, so timing of the surge is very important.
I had considered either anchoring out here, but is very exposed and a mud bottom, or running for Savannah and going up river, which ought to be a good place to go.
However what is the plan when you get way up river and see bunches of locals anchored with their Danforths and nylon rode?

Months ago I had picked this Marina for its reputation as a Hurricane Hole, and was very nervous being where I was in Stuart Fl.

However it's not just boats, when we were in Stuart we rented this very nice little house in a development of hundreds of tiny homes, trailers etc. it was on a barrier island and about 5' higher than sea level based on the water level. If the storm had tracked as originally predicted, that whole development wouldn't exist tomorrow.

There is going to be a lot of pain and grief from this storm, there already is.

[belizesailor]

A64, where is your boat now?

[a64pilot]

Brunswick Landings Marina

[SecondBase]

A64 -

I had the experience of Sandy on floating docks. In your marina I see the channel running north-south and 14 docks running east to west.

Any chance you are on an end dock?

Are you in a north or south facing slip?

Where is your slip along your dock? shore, middle or along channel?


Can anyone figure out time of surge for A64's location & also wind direction at that surge time?

[SV Windrush II]

Originally Posted by SecondBase

A64 -

I had the experience of Sandy on floating docks. In your marina I see the channel running north-south and 14 docks running east to west.

Any chance you are on an end dock?

Are you in a north or south facing slip?

Where is your slip along your dock? shore, middle or along channel?


Can anyone figure out time of surge for A64's location & also wind direction at that surge time?

Looks like the hight of the storm surge in A64's location will be about noon on monday and that is also high tide, winds will be in the 70-80 knot range. But water levels should start rising in a few hours.

Please feel free to confirm this!

[a64pilot]

Too soon I think to predict time, it has slowed from what I can tell, where it was supposed to be by 8 PM tonight, they are now saying 2 AM tomorrow.
I hope the winds won't be that bad, if it follows predicted course.

My daughter said it best, she thinks these storms are like lightning, they do what they want to, they don't necessarily follow the rules.

[jholder]

Originally Posted by jserge

I would guess the same - if the hurricane catches them at the sea they are dead. Not worth the risk. You cannot be absolutely sure that the hurricane wont change its direction the moment you cast off.

All of the models I saw predicted Irma tracking across the Leeward Islands towards the Florida Keys, or turning north. St Maarten to Grenada is only about 300nm. They had time to get out of the way of this one if they had been motivated to do so.

[JPA Cate]

One problem with rivers is the flooding. It is prudent to think of hurricanes as being stuffed full of water, so that debris will be coming down the rivers. That debris can gather on your chain, and the time it happened to us, this meant a whole mess of water hyacinth, and the odd log. The boat hook was the tool to use, but a long handled pruning saw would have helped. And yes, eventually the burden of trash on the chain did cause us to drag. There were also the odd dead cow--glad she didn't get caught!--and a buoy also came by.

You really have to pick hidey holes carefully, they tend to look different with flood surge and cocoa colored water.

Second Base getting up the locks may turn out to be the major factor in saving his boat. Well done, SB. .....and thank you for the kind words.

Ann

[SaltyMetals]

Ken,
I had F6-7 yesterday going from Cavtat to Korcula. Max shown on my instruments was 55 Kn. A fantastic day's sail with wind mostly from astern. Not a risky situation like in the Caribbean but I wonder why you felt it necessary to take shelter when there was a wonderful sailing opportunity. Orders from the admiral?

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by SaltyMetals

Ken,
I had F6-7 yesterday going from Cavtat to Korcula. Max shown on my instruments was 55 Kn. A fantastic day's sail with wind mostly from astern. Not a risky situation like in the Caribbean but I wonder why you felt it necessary to take shelter when there was a wonderful sailing opportunity. Orders from the admiral?

You're in a completely different part of the country 280 miles away. We made the decision to head north when 35-55 knots was predicted for Sibenik and areas north. You should know about the Bora and micro climates caused by the terrain here in Croatia, that a 35-55 knot forecast can easily turn into 50-70 knots without warning and can diminish in surrounding areas down to a "wonderful sailing opportunity" just as easily (depending on which direction you're heading).

If you haven't discovered this by now, you will soon find out. The weather can change just as fast in the wrong direction, so we took the initiative seven days ago to head north sooner than later, and it's worked out well.

You need to look at least 2-3 days ahead at the weather around here and a week ahead to get the BIG picture, because here's an example of what can go wrong if you watch day by day, wait too long and cut your escape too close:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=roLIEIjsd18

[mikereed100]

I think the answer to the OP's original question is that a lot of boats DO head south to get out of the way of hurricanes in the Caribbean. I was living in Dominica when Georges came through in '98. There was a pretty much constant stream of boats going by, headed south to get out of the hurricane zone. All of these boats appeared to be privately owned. Most of the time there is several days warning before a hurricane makes landfall in the Caribbean. I would certainly make a run south if I were in the Northern Caribbean if a hurricane threatened. To be honest, it's really a moot point as I would never want to be anywhere near a tropical cyclone zone out of season.