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Old 25-10-2014, 14:31   #16
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Re: Outremer 45

Where would that put the new 45 in 6 years? What's the asking today?

How much is this over a Lagoonelia 45?

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Old 25-10-2014, 15:31   #17
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Re: Outremer 45

The O49s cost around $865K new and with the final commissioning, delivery, and average options would be over $1 mill. There are 2009 and 2011 ones on YW now in the $650K to $670K range and I imagine the selling price would be a bit less. So that's around a 35% price drop in 3 to 5 years. I expect the O45 would be similar.
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Old 25-10-2014, 17:34   #18
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Re: Outremer 45

This is in line with my once observed that it is some 50% over 6 to 7 years.

So maybe it is another 6 to 7 years' waiting for us ;-)

Maybe more!

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Old 25-10-2014, 19:05   #19
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Re: Outremer 45

No one wants the 49 really.

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Old 26-10-2014, 02:50   #20
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Re: Outremer 45

Ok a couple of points on future pricing, but you can look at past pricing if you want to do your homework as well to confirm...
Inflation...things get more expensive...labour, materials cost of business etc at a rate of around 7% per annum. So in 7 years something 100k today will cost 200k to replace. This isn't always the case with items such as TV,s etc, but basics..cars, real estate, food and boats that's about how it works...don't worry though because your wages will increase at a similar rate to be able to afford all that stuff ( unless you live somewhere like America)
I've heard if a hundred times before, wow we paid 100k for our house and sold it 15yrs later for $400 k..score !! , well not really, they just kept up with inflation and replacement cost is still the same..
Over the past few years I've noticed new yacht prices following the same trend, averaging 5-10% increase each year. This is where you can do your homework.. See if you can get price data for the past years, maybe ask brokers or owners. It may be a bit misleading as all will have different options and tax rates, delivery rates and brokers fees, but if you can manage to find the basic price list you can start from there.
Someone will chime in and say, yeah but X cat didn't get more expensive last year..
I'm talking about the overall market. Occasionally something will hold off price increases, such as moving manufacturing base or company pricing structures and policies to stay competitive.
So it's good you have zoned in on a helia 44, really nice boat. Your thinking of a 4-5 yr old one so you have a good reference point. So now check what the new price of a H44 was 4-5 yrs ago and I think you will find it's pretty close to the asking price of the ones currently on the market. Actually I don't think they made the helia then so you may have to do this exercise with the orana or similar model but you will get the idea.
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Old 26-10-2014, 09:05   #21
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Re: Outremer 45

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Originally Posted by SVNeko View Post
No one wants the 49 really.

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Why? It looks really similar to the other Outies.
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Old 26-10-2014, 09:46   #22
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Re: Outremer 45

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Why? It looks really similar to the other Outies.
Goofy windows and overloaded. That's why the 51 came so quickly, which is basically the 49 +2 ft.
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Old 26-10-2014, 11:04   #23
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Re: Outremer 45

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Goofy windows and overloaded. That's why the 51 came so quickly, which is basically the 49 +2 ft.
I had made the same weight limit observation in another thread but I was corrected. I always thought it was a load sensitive design but not a bad one. It is sexy. So great minds think alike!

I suspect the O45 might have similar attributes.
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Old 26-10-2014, 13:01   #24
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Re: Outremer 45

The extra 600 mm on the 49-51 came about as a result of a saloon/galley redesign primarily.
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Old 26-10-2014, 17:41   #25
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Re: Outremer 45

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The extra 600 mm on the 49-51 came about as a result of a saloon/galley redesign primarily.
Maybe, but I've heard differently. And look at the transoms.
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Old 27-10-2014, 19:21   #26
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Re: Outremer 45

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I wouldn't expect any cats to become closer to a price range. In 3 years the new models of these will be 30% more expensive and the current models close to the current price. That's my experience from the past few years of being involved in the market. So if you are budgeting on 400K in 2 years, look at boats priced at 400k now, new and used because they're the ones that will be in that budget in 2 years time
I don't buy this. Inflation is currently less than 2% a year. Why would boat prices go up 10% a year?

Also, I compared prices on FP Helia 44 and other models 2013-2014. The Helia went up < 4%. Other FP models < 2%. Which makes sense as the Helia has turned out to be a very popular boat, and FP likely took the opportunity to increase the price a bit mire as a result.

The 2008-2011 period may be a bit if an anomaly as prices likely were depressed a bit due to the financial crisis. But I would be very surprised if new boat prices go up 10%, or even 7% a year, going forward.

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Old 28-10-2014, 07:10   #27
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Re: Outremer 45

monte, there was a time in the late 70's early 80's when sailboats held their value very well - indeed, I actually made some money on the resale of a couple of my boats. Circumstances were different then, as:
1. The supply of good used fiberglass sailboats was relatively small. FRP construction of cruising boats did not begin on a large scale until the 1960's and, as a consequence, anyone looking to buy a used fiberglass sailboat had to purchase one that was built in the last 10 to 20 years. In addition, the bareboat charter market was in its relative infancy and the companies ordered only a fraction of the boats that they do today. As the boats they purchase go off charter, they flood the market for used cruising boats.
2. Even though the supply for used cruising boats has increased, demand for the same has remained relatively constant; indeed, with the downturn in the economy, it has probably dropped.
3. Interest rates/inflation are much lower today than in the late 70's and 80's.
4. The huge increase in the cost of oil during the first oil embargo had a dramatic effect on the cost of resin, dacron, etc.

Real estate is a very different matter than boats or cars as:

1. The land itself does not deteriorate with the passage of time.
2. The land for new construction is typically less desireable than many older homes as it will be further and further away from town centers.
3. Typically, designs of homes do not become obsolete; indeed, many prefer designs from previous generations.
4. The quality of materials/workmanship in some older homes is much better than in many newer homes and, those areas which are not (windows, electrical, plumbing) can be upgraded relatively easily.
5. Demand for housing is relatively inelastic - even in a bad economy, people still need a place to live. People do not need a cruising boat.
6. It is easier to get a mortgage for a reasonable rate on a house than on a boat.

So, unless in the next several years we move into hyper inflation and yet simultaneously, also have more people with more disposable income, a boat that costs 400K now will not cost 400K when Scarlet is in the market for a used boat in the next 5 or 6 years!

Scarlet, your basic thinking is IMO correct. Howver, as has been pointed out, your mileage may vary depending upon the boat. Some cats, particularly those that are well designed, well built and not intended primarily for the charter market, will typically depreciate less. Think of it this way - the demand for new Lagoons, Leopards etc. is fueled by not only the demand for new cruising cats, but more significantly, by the charter market. Once those boats are off charter, the demand for the used examples will only be from those in the market for used cruising boats.

Brad
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Old 28-10-2014, 07:28   #28
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Re: Outremer 45

Umm, Upgrading old electric or plumbing systems in an old house is not relatively easy (or cheap). You get to rip open the walls for these. Ask me how I know?
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Old 28-10-2014, 08:13   #29
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Re: Outremer 45

I hear you Sandcrab - been there, done that. Nevertheless, as boats age, every part of them deteriorates and not just the systems. Upgrade the wiring/plumbing on an old boat and what you have is an old boat with upgraded wiring/plumbing. It will never have a value comparable to a new boat of similar size, whereas the upgraded older home can and will.

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Old 28-10-2014, 08:38   #30
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Re: Outremer 45

Quote:
Originally Posted by fabgo View Post
I don't buy this. Inflation is currently less than 2% a year. Why would boat prices go up 10% a year?

Also, I compared prices on FP Helia 44 and other models 2013-2014. The Helia went up < 4%. Other FP models < 2%. Which makes sense as the Helia has turned out to be a very popular boat, and FP likely took the opportunity to increase the price a bit mire as a result.

The 2008-2011 period may be a bit if an anomaly as prices likely were depressed a bit due to the financial crisis. But I would be very surprised if new boat prices go up 10%, or even 7% a year, going forward.

Regards
- Fabian
Fabian, my issue was with this statement:

"So if you are budgeting on 400K in 2 years, look at boats priced at 400k now, new and used because they're the ones that will be in that budget in 2 years time"

There is no way that is correct because boats depreciate. I do not believe that a boat that is $400,000 right now (new OR used).. is going to be $400,000 in a few years.
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