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Old 30-09-2009, 14:42   #16
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I seriously doubt the numbers are exactly .000001 and .000002. Single digit precision is not very accurate. This could simply be rounding error. The monohull number could really be .00000149 and the cat number .00000150 and the rounding error would give you the numbers stated. Without knowing the confidence interval of the statistic stating they are different simply means that someone does not know anything about statistics.
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Old 30-09-2009, 17:00   #17
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... For example, I don't have the figures handy, but I looked into the actual numbers of lighting claims on cats versus monos versus trawlers. Cats have more, followed by monos, and then by trawlers . . . just as one might imagine . . .

BUT, NONE of the numbers are so far apart that it would cause one to worry about lightning, let alone have it dictate which boat to buy, etc. For example, I don't remember the actual numbers, but if the chance of a cat getting hit is .000002 percent and a monohull is .000001 percent, is that something to really jump up and down about? The chances for both are still very small...
The following statistics are based on all of the BoatUS Marine Insurance claims for lightning damage over a five-year period. The percentages suggest the chances of the various types of boats being struck in any given year (not over a lifetime)
Auxiliary Sail 0.006 (0.6%) Sixty out of 10,000
Multi-hull sail 0.005 (0.5%) Fifty out of 10,000
Trawlers 0.003 (0.3%) Thirty out of 10,000
Sail Only 0.002 (0.2%) Twenty out of 10,000
Cruisers 0.001 (0.1%) Ten out of 10,000
Runabouts 0.0002 (0.02%) Two out of 10,000
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Old 30-09-2009, 17:35   #18
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Capt. Bill . . .

No! I'm sorry. I must not have been clear enough.

Like I wrote, those are NOT the alleged numbers . . . I said I could not remember the actual numbers so I was just using those as an example of how a "twice as likely" statistical warning can sometimes be WAY less scary than it sounds if in fact the whole universe of the compared probabilities is extremely remote.

Anyway, I went looking for some "real" numbers for ya and lookie here what I found:

BoatUS.com - Seaworthy Magazine

According to these allegedly accurate numbers for Boat U.S. lightning damage claims over a five year period . . .

"The percentages suggest the chances of the various types of boats being struck in any given year."

Per year, there was a 6 out of 1,000 chance for auxiliary saiboats and ONLY a 5 out of 1,000 thousand chance for multihull sailboats to get hit . . . .

monohulls: 6 divided by 1000 = .006 chance

cats: 5 divided by 1000 = .005 chance

I'm not a math junkie or numbers jockey, but even a poor rube like me can pretty much see that according to Boat U.S. claims, not only do cats NOT get hit twice as often according to those numbers but that over a five year period monohulls had a better chance of getting whacked.

Hmmm . . . I guess the old Mark Twain quote is a good one, you know, "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics!"

There seems to be a big disconnect somewhere????

Regardless, the point is that I have never seen any set of actual lightning statistics that legitimately place catamarans in some statistically-significantly truly-troubling higher danger zone for lighting strikes.

And hey! I HATE lightning on ANY boat. I don't care how encouraging the stats are.

Of all the perils we have braved over the last 15,000 miles, far and away it is lightning that gets me into a panic the quickest, that's for sure! I just hate it way more than any other wind/wave/weather threat out there! Everybody had their phobias and fears and lighting is mine!

All the best and don't touch anything metal,

Buddy
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Old 30-09-2009, 17:36   #19
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You beat me to it, Gord!

But our numbers still don't match, or do they?! :-)
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Old 01-10-2009, 08:00   #20
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If there was a significant difference in the insurance claims by cats then it would show up in the premium. Unless insurers have become more charitable of late....
Well, that surely brought a smile to my lips... insurance companies being charitable with their rates. I think that comes under the "when pigs fly" category.

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Old 01-10-2009, 08:25   #21
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When we were looking for our first boat, we were in love with the traditional Tahiti Ketch design and were pre-disposed to buy one. They were gorgeous. After a lot of research we kept coming back to the benefits of multihulls, specifically, catamarans. Safety, speed (for getting out of harms way), livability were a few of the benefits. At that time 'multihull' was as good as a four letter word. We heard so many negatives about them that we began to think our research and conclusions were faulty. We were seriously considering forgoing a cat and buying a monohull. Then we were introduced to a well known marine architect, who told us that our research and conclusions were 'right on the money.' He said we should to go back and 're-interview' all those people who pooh-poohed multis. He said we might be surprised to find out that they had no (or very limited) experience with multis but "knew someone who knew someone who had sailed one once." We found that he was 'right on the money." As a result, our first boat was a 31 foot Gemini Cat. By the time we bought her, we already knew how to sail, but we still spent a year learning how to handle all of her little eccentricities. Then we set out on a 5 year sabbatical.

Although our Gemini is a memory, we're again getting ready to head out on a bigger, blue water catamaran. I just don't understand why anyone would want to sail a monohull. They're slow, dark, heel unmercifully and they have a gajillion lbs of lead trying to pull them to the bottom of the ocean.
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Old 01-10-2009, 09:42   #22
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Sea Wolf, can we just agree that monos and cats are great because they're sailboats? (don't mean to leave out the tri's - I love them too). It appears that you are just as guilty as the mono hull owners you mention as it appears you have limited monohull experience but are comfortable expressing negative opinions about them. I've owned both. New boat is mono. Next boat? Too soon to say.

It's also fine to only drink white wine, but that doesn't make red wine bad. Someday you might even have a meal that goes better with red.

As for lightening. I'm with "lies, damned lies and statistics". I doubt the number of hulls is in the top six factors. Probably a lot more important whether the hull(s) is/are floating in fresh or salt water - or worse, on the hard. In my experience, insurance companies show no curiosity about whether their statistics are correct.

There was a piece in the newspaper about a breakthough statistical paper just published about why babies born in winter on average do less well in school. Everyone had assumed that it was something about the cold or the school year. Turns out there's a strong correlation that less financially well off mothers have more births in February and babies of less well off mothers don't do as well in school. Why do they have more babies in January/February? The statisticians are still trying to figure that out (like lightening) but one theory they labeled "the prom effect".

Carl

PS - the quote is probably "damned" lies. (it's also unclear who said it first). More fun to say that way.
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Old 01-10-2009, 12:55   #23
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Sea Wolf, can we just agree that monos and cats are great because they're sailboats? (don't mean to leave out the tri's - I love them too). It appears that you are just as guilty as the mono hull owners you mention as it appears you have limited monohull experience but are comfortable expressing negative opinions about them.
Carl,
You're right to say what you did because I left out that I've been on monos from lasers to a 65 foot Irwin while we were looking and also since buying our first multi. We never turn down the opportunity to look at or go sailing on other boats, whether mono or multi hulls, although I must admit that the older I tet, the less inclined I am to go out on monohulls... just don't like the heeling. While I much prefer the looks of a monohull... some are absolutely gorgeous, I didn't like sailing on any of them... except for the lasers, which were a hoot! Most of the earlier cats, and some today, look like clorox bottles, but I'd still rather be on a cat than anything else... a personal preference for sure, but nonetheless one I decided on based on my own experience.

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Old 01-10-2009, 13:00   #24
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I’d be absolutely fascinated to learn what everybody’s favourite colour is, why it's the "best" colour, and why anyone choosing differently is wrong (and perhaps evil).
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Old 01-10-2009, 14:26   #25
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I remember that article. At the time, I thought he was joking around. What was a weak attempt a humor brought outrage from the multihull community. I believe he published an apology.
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Old 01-10-2009, 14:33   #26
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GordMay,
I would assume you're talking about boat colors. I love dark colors on the hulls of monohulls (forest green, navy blue, black, anything really dark dark dark). To me the dark colors make them look incredibly classy. However... and it's a BIG however, those beautiful dark colors attract the sun (at least in the tropics) and make the hulls hot, hot, hot on the inside as well as the outside. It was also pointed out to us that dark colors make a boat difficult to see at sunrise, sunset and after dark... which can be a plus or a minus depending on the circumstances. We got rid of our blue cabin band because the heat was incredible on the inside walls.

On our deck we have white with the absolute palest grey we could find for the non-skid. We wanted a contrast for aesthetics. What a mistake! The deck non-skid is horrendously hot on bare feet! We painted the non-skid in the cockpit and on the aft deck white. It's not a problem. Ironically, the white on the non-skid looks pale gray (Go Figure!). Had we known about that little benefit, we would have painted the entire deck white and will certainly do so when we need a repaint... when and if we ever have the gumption to undertake the task!

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Old 01-10-2009, 14:38   #27
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I’d be absolutely fascinated to learn what everybody’s favourite colour is, why it's the "best" colour, and why anyone choosing differently is wrong (and perhaps evil).
Astute as always
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Old 01-10-2009, 14:41   #28
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The following statistics are based on all of the BoatUS Marine Insurance claims for lightning damage over a five-year period. The percentages suggest the chances of the various types of boats being struck in any given year (not over a lifetime)
Auxiliary Sail 0.006 (0.6%) Sixty out of 10,000
Multi-hull sail 0.005 (0.5%) Fifty out of 10,000
Trawlers 0.003 (0.3%) Thirty out of 10,000
Sail Only 0.002 (0.2%) Twenty out of 10,000
Cruisers 0.001 (0.1%) Ten out of 10,000
Runabouts 0.0002 (0.02%) Two out of 10,000

It appears that "Cats Have More Insurance Claims" has about as much basis in fact as "Cats Are Twice As Likely To Be Struck By Lightning".

That being pretty much zero.

So what motivates people to make these statements?
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