Catamarans - Current Market Situation

[Kiwi.]

Originally Posted by Palarran

This beauty is perfect for you. Won't set you back too much and loads of fun in the water.

Yeah, it's hard to find a photo of a sunken catamaran.

[cat man do]

Originally Posted by Palarran

I forgot, your probably looking for a catamaran. Here's one and it really should be cheap.

Richard Woods Eclipse

Interesting story Multihull pages

And also interesting to see the picture with rig on when in this article it says it was minus rig Richard Woods' cat towed to Panama | Sailing news | Yachting Monthly

Six months at sea by herself, says a lot .

[dave777]

Originally Posted by Curmudgeon

I expect the market for large cats to remain strong. As someone once said, even when times are bad the rich have money. At least here in the U.S., what's happening is that wealth is being redistributed upwards. Pretty soon 1% of the population will control 95%+ of the wealth, while everyone else will be living hand to mouth. The middle class is evaporating faster than the polar ice caps.

LOL!

The reality is that a huge portion of the wealth that we thought we had was really just a house of cards. All of the "appreciation" of housing, and much of the rise in stock portfolios, was just a house of cards, or carboard, paper. All of the consumer spending done with housing ATMs, or based upon inflated confidence on housing values, was foolish though it helped prop up the economy.

We are still suffering a housing bubble. Biggest factor is that the banks are keep their "shadow inventory" of houses off the market, as the U.S. bails out these same institutions. I remember when there was sooo much talk about affordable housing, but Washington does everything it can to help sustain the charade.

Back to the original post - the boat market. Well, it is really just an extension of the housing market. And as we all recall, we've read wonderful news and hear fantastic stats about the housing market "recovery". Reality is that we have about 8 times more shadow inventory than has already hit the fan just waiting in our subsidized banks' coffers to quell any genuine housing recovery. So much for every retiree being a millionaire and buying a boat. Which leads to the next big issue, demographics. The baby bubble (baby boomers) is passing and there are just fewer people around and with money to buy boats in the next generation, which is more into media and electronics than the outdoors. Plus, they have student loans eating a larger portion of their income like baby boomers have never seen.

Long story short: Whatever the market looks like now (housing and boat market) it's getting worse for the foreseable future. Unfortunately, costs like maintenance, storage, dockage, fuel, insurance and depreciation won't be falling with boat prices. Well, maybe dockage will get cheaper.

[xymotic]

Originally Posted by mtnsapo

so, in line with what is said above, I am wondering how to go about putting in offers on the boats I am looking at. I can write the check, but how do i throw out a lowball offer and not offend sombody and also, at the same time, let them know i am dead serious and have the resources to back up my offer for a clean transaction? Do I put an offer on every boat in my short list, then follow with survey?

Brian

IMO, you can't lowball, and expect contingencies and not to offend. It just doesn't work.

I just went through this with my house.

Guy sent me a offer that was basically 5k LESS than what I paid for it 10 years ago, along with a SEVENTEEN page contract.

My 'counter offer' was very, VERY short

If you want it to work; you offer should be $xx Cash, today. period.

[Tropic Cat]

Originally Posted by dave777

...Long story short: Whatever the market looks like now (housing and boat market) it's getting worse for the foreseable future. Unfortunately, costs like maintenance, storage, dockage, fuel, insurance and depreciation won't be falling with boat prices. Well, maybe dockage will get cheaper.

I agree completely. A large part of the boat market was financed by home equity loans. When they disappeared, prices began to drop. They're still dropping.

[timbenner]

dave777,

You're right on target. 76 million homeowners in the US, 18 million are upside down (owe more than the house worth), almost 5 million are 120 days behind on their mortgage or in foreclosure and the banks already own roughly 1.3 million foreclosed homes. We're not near bottom yet, but that's speaking about the overall US, there are always markets immune to all of this. Money goes to money and quality survives.

Only one thing that will turn housing around and that's jobs. Can't buy a house without a job, except for cash of course. 90% of all new jobs created in the past couple of years are PART TIME JOBS! Can't buy a house with that either.

Back to boats. Make the low ball offer, subject to survey, who cares if you offend, it's business, not personal. There are two kinds of sellers; those that want to make money and those that have to sell. You want the latter and might have to do some fishing to find them.

A new perspective on sailboats though. Neil Bortz (radio host) said last Friday that it's time to develop an exit strategy. First on his list was gold and silver, second on his list was some money offshore, and third on his list was BY A SAILBOAT!! I've been saying that for over 10 years. Listen up yacht brokers, there's now another reason to buy a sailboat -- EXIT STRATEGY!!

[timbenner]

TROPIC CAT,

You are right about marina rents. They have fallen in N. Florida by 25 to 30% and vacancies have doubled.

Funny though, I bought my boat and house at roughly the same time, in early 2006. The house has dropped 30 to 40% and still falling. The boat has held over 95% of it's value. Who would have guessed that in 2006??

[dave777]

Originally Posted by timbenner

TROPIC CAT,

You are right about marina rents. They have fallen in N. Florida by 25 to 30% and vacancies have doubled.

Funny though, I bought my boat and house at roughly the same time, in early 2006. The house has dropped 30 to 40% and still falling. The boat has held over 95% of it's value. Who would have guessed that in 2006??

Are you sure that your 2006 purchase has only depreciated 5%? Maybe you bought a fixer and put lots of money in it, Or maybe you are only looking at Asking prices, or BuC value or a dealer valuation. The only way to know what your boat is worth is watch and hope for the check to clear - after selling it. Everything else is just bubble talk.

TimBenner - Yeah, the exit strategy that you can sail away on! I half joking was talking with a friend, that I'd wait out some future food riots on my cruiser as I fished. And he said it won't work, there'd be pirates to ruin that strategy. But seriously, a problem with a sailboat as an asset is the 'cost of carry'.

Every financial position has a financing cost, and as far as a hard asset a sailboat is worse than something like gold. With gold, you only have your 'opportunity cost', what the funds could be doing elsewhere. With a boat, you've got additional non-finance costs: storage, insurance, maintenance etc. even if not used. I'd have to disagree, a boat is not an asset, it is a liability.

[timbenner]

dave777,

A boat is definitely a liability from the standpoint that you owe money monthly (cost to carry), but by definition it's still an asset, although a depreciating one. At least by accounting definition.

Regarding pirates, you have them on land as well. In fact, in the catastrophic situation you describe, there will be many more pirates or criminals on land than at sea. There's more criminals with cars, than boats.

The benefit of being at sea, is that you can escape to better surroundings. Like the uninhabited islands in the Abacos or Exumas, Bahamas or San Juan Islands off Panama. The remoter and more primitive the location, the less it will be affected by economic ca lapse.

The Bahamas welcomes your guns, just declare them and keep them on board. The chances of someone hijacking or robbing me while in my car, would be much easier than trying the same while I'm on my boat. I'm more isolated and would have more time to see them coming.

I use 4 Driveway Alarms, at $15 each (bow, transom, port and starboard sides) that ding dong me in my stateroom, when you get within 100', while at anchor. I don't have that kind of warning in my car.

With the increasing probability of economic ca lapse, this is a subject relevant to all of us. Brain storming our strategies and alternatives can only benefit us all. Personally, I like the boat idea, but then I'm always looking for an excuse to spend more time on the boat.

[dirkdig]

It i think would be fair to say the boat builders will be making a lot less boats per year since 2009 so the available stock of reasonable non charter and even ex charter boats will be a lot less in the coming years thus helping boat values stay stronger in a supply and demand situation?
When you have Australia leading the sales of Fountaine Pajot cats with a population of 22 million it show the rest of the world is not buying new boats.

[D&D]

Originally Posted by timbenner

I use 4 Driveway Alarms, at $15 each (bow, transom, port and starboard sides) that ding dong me in my stateroom, when you get within 100', while at anchor.

Tim, we're considering installing a security system and wd like to hear a bit more about yours, albeit a bit off topic. What's the name and age of your system?

[D&D]

Originally Posted by dirkdig

Australia leading the sales of Fountaine Pajot cats

Interesting...although not sure about the "boat builders will be making a lot less boats per year since 2009". From current activity we observe between Ancasta and Lagoon, it seems the latter are still churning out new vessels pretty smartly. We hasten to add, however, that our observation is entirely anecdotal and not a bit empircal! Where do the FP sales figures come from?

[dirkdig]

FP aust/nz dealer told me they are no 1 last 2 years for sales of FP

[AllezCat]

Australia's economy has been booming, currency is extraordinarily strong.
It is affordable for them to buy up US/euro boats.
A broker often said the market is strong/improving. But invariably the buyers were Aussies.
The Aussie housing market cannot rise perpetually - it surely is a bubble.
A friend bought a house in Florida west coast - doubled in value in 5 years when he sold in 2005. All his friends advised to rinse and repeat as they were doing. He realized it was wrong/fake/ bubble /house of cards. So he bought a boat and is still cruising...
His friends lost everything when the music stopped in 2008.
My west marine man in Miami has a fishing boat stored in one of those covered racks. There was a long waiting list to get a spot . Now there are more than 20 empty spots. However, west marine is very busy - mostly foreigners (mostly brazilians)- they would be similar boom economy as the Aussie.
Great idea about "bug out boat" - not a single "expert" agrees... Prefer solitude on the water than joining food riots...

[dirkdig]

Well the aussie economy is slowing down now and house prices have been falling for the last 12 months, there is increased unemployment and interest rates are expected to come down.
The boat market is also slowing to nothing, so the US brokers/ sellers might want to grab offrs from Aussies while thy are still there.