Originally Posted by schoonerdog
using John Shuttleworths static wind capsize
formula our boat would start to lift
in 24.2 knots of wind
Sorry to call your math into question, but that doesn't sound right at all. An F41 (lighter, with bigger sails
than a St Francis 44) has a static capsize
windspeed of 36 knots. An F25C (very fast race
boat) has a static capsize windspeed of 28 knots. Real lunatic fringe race
boats are somewhere down in the low twenties.
Since wind speed is reported as seventieth prercentile and gust as ninetieth, sailing a boat at 80% of its static capsize windspeed is playing with fire. Guaranteed to piss the admiral off. While it is true that the force exerted on the boat is much less than the 80% would imply (because force exerted by the wind rises as the square of the velocity) the concern is the probability that the force exerted will exceed 100% and the fate of the martinis immediately thereafter.
FWIW, I usually reef Endless Summer (my F41) at half the static capsize windspeed and have never regretted it. As the wind comes over 15 knots we start to get overpressed and just pump energy back into the ocean. Reefing is much easier on the boat and crew and barely slows us down.