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Old 22-02-2012, 13:32   #1
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Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

Hi all,

First post... Been lurking for awhile, and am in the early stages of researching my ultimate boat.

The forum is full of threads comparing Pros & Cons of each boat, but I wanted to do an analysis of which boats hold their value better, and what the cost of depreciation is at various points over the lifecycle of the boat.

Some questions I'm hoping to answer are:
  • What does it cost, per year, in depreciation alone?
  • Is the price premium for a higher-quality used boat worth it if I plan to own for 3-5 years?
  • How old of a boat should I look at for the most "bang-for-buck"?

So... I went to NADA and grabbed some data on Gemini 105Mc, PDQ 36, and Lagoon 380. (I wanted to compare Fountaine Pajot Mahe 36 as well, but there's no data)

Here's what I came up with:

First, is a chart showing the Average Retail Price as a percentage of the MSRP for various model years:

Click image for larger version

Name:	Depreciation_As_Pct_of_MSRP.png
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ID:	37779

Here's what I'm reading in to this:
  • Lagoon's may retain more value as a percentage of their initial price
  • PDQ's drop much more quickly (they are a much higher initial cost), with Gemini's in the middle
  • For example, after 6 years (looking at 2005 models) the Lagoon sells for 74% of it's MSRP, the Gemini for 65%, and the PDQ for 52%. Pretty big difference.


Next up... looking at actual dollar-cost of depreciation after X number of years (by simply comparing each consecutive year's average retail value):

Click image for larger version

Name:	YearlyDepreciationCost.png
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ID:	37781

Here's what I'm reading in to this one:
  • PDQ's may actually be cheapest to own if buying used and selling after a few years (they seem to take a big hit from new, but between years 5 - 10 aren't dropping that fast)
  • Looking at boats between 7 - 10 years old, the Lagoons take the biggest depreciation hit for that time period.
  • Gemini's flatten out in terms of year-over-year depreciation after about a 6 year old boat (i.e. model year 2006's may represent the best value to own for 3 - 5 years)


Interested to hear opinions! I can poke a million holes in my own analysis, but curious if some of these observations hold up.
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Old 22-02-2012, 14:00   #2
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

MostlyHarmless,

Welcome to CF, and I too am interested in your research as it pertains to a boat on my short list, the PDQ 36. On your second graph it looks like only the PDQ reflects the average refit performed at 10~12 years.

My interest in the PDQ is not typical, so won't bore you with my personal reasons, but I hope for both of us, you get some educated responses.
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Old 22-02-2012, 14:14   #3
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

MostlyHarmless,

Does your data take into account that the Lagoon 380 have a lot of charter boats in those numbers and the Gemini and PDQ are typically owners boats. Charter boats price very different from owners boats
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Old 22-02-2012, 14:37   #4
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

Quote:
Originally Posted by deckofficer View Post
On your second graph it looks like only the PDQ reflects the average refit performed at 10~12 years.
Thanks.. The PDQ's seem to be the hardest to find used... That spike actually shows a larger drop in value (not increase in price) because it's the cost of depreciation each year. in other words, a 2000 model averages $6000 less than a 2001, but a 2001 only averages $3000 less than a 2002
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Old 22-02-2012, 14:42   #5
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cotemar View Post
MostlyHarmless,

Does your data take into account that the Lagoon 380 have a lot of charter boats in those numbers and the Gemini and PDQ are typically owners boats. Charter boats price very different from owners boats
On nadaguides.com, they do separate the Lagoon 380 owners model (3 cabin) from the typical charter (4 cabin), and the data I used was for the owners. Here's an example of where I grabbed the numbers:

2005 Lagoon 380 S2 OWNER'S VERSION-IB - 38' Standard Equipment, Prices & Specs - NADAguides
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Old 22-02-2012, 15:14   #6
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

Your analytical methods are sound, but the data are crap. NADA and BUC are notoriously bad data for actual boat prices and sale prices. Not associated with reality in any way. Unfortunately, the data you need for your analysis are difficult to get. The only thing that comes close is soldboats.com, and even that is full of error.

Pick the boat that speaks to you and fits your need. Never do a financial analysis on a boat unless it also includes a psychoanalysis. Boats do not make financial sense. Ever. They also do not make psychological sense. They are a treatment for a disease and they will cost whatever it takes to treat that disease and you will pay it until you are cured, if ever. Get used to that and you will be OK.

I'm guessing the name of your boat will be Heart of Gold?

Mark
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Old 22-02-2012, 15:45   #7
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

^ Funny and true!
BTW, Nice boat there! A Manta could help with my disease!
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Old 22-02-2012, 16:21   #8
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Talking Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

Quote:
Originally Posted by colemj View Post
Pick the boat that speaks to you and fits your need. Never do a financial analysis on a boat unless it also includes a psychoanalysis.
Mark
Hahaha! Good points! I understand that the data may be of very poor quality, and I won't be making any real decisions based on it. But, since there aren't many boats to look at in Chicago during the winter, I'm not in a position yet to see what speaks to me. (I'll be making a trip to Florida in a month and hope to actually start seeing some)

I started off mostly considering a Gemini. What got me down this path of analysis was to see if I could justify looking at one of the more premium/blue-water capable brands.

I plan on cruising and living-aboard for a couple years (mainly ICW and Caribbean) after which I'll probably sell. It occurred to me that the actual price-point of the boat may not be the most important factor to start narrowing the field. It's possible that it could actually be *cheaper* to buy a more expensive boat and sell in a couple years if it holds it's value better. (just the holding costs would be higher, but if you could recoup that money when you sell, it may be worth it)

In any case... the psychoanalysis is probably in order... I'm just trying to convince myself it's okay to buy a bigger boat.
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Old 23-02-2012, 10:03   #9
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

Disclaimer: I own a PDQ 36 and a Chris White Atlantic 42.
You are evaluating used sandwiches based on the selling price of bread.
You can completely rid your mind of anything you see from a used car pricing guide. Any tangential contact with reality is by pure, fickle chance.
As a recovering Yacht Broker I can assure you that only Gemini has sold enough boats (1,000+) to have a reliable trend in depreciation. Selling prices for Lagoon, FP, PDQ and others fit no curve whatsoever. You would be making a big mistake to draw ANY conclusion about a boat purchase based on a few other purchases.

Any boat is worth exactly what a buyer and seller agree upon. No two boats are alike. You can add up what the boat cost new plus all the additional equipment added plus the cost to add it and the cost to maintain it and you will arrive at a useless number. No matter how stone-cold objective and market savvy a seller is, his price is emotional, and so is yours.

There is a solution: Sail everything you can get yourself invited on, save your money, and at some auspicious point in time what you think you want and what you think you can afford will meet a seller at some acceptable price.

And remember; nobody buys his last boat first.

see also http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...3&postcount=14
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Old 23-02-2012, 10:41   #10
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

I tried to post the url for a recent response in another forum, but could not do so, so I've posted it's entirety here.

Re: How long did it take you to find the right boat?
39 years and counting! Why? because there is no perfectly right boat. But that hasn't kept me from looking, owning, sailing and trading up something like 30 different boats, mostly cats.

Why couldn't I just wait, saving my money, for the best boat?
1. Sailing experience changes your requirements.
2. Getting older changes your requirements.
3. Life changes your requirements.

When I was working for a living I moved a lot. A boat on a trailer was good. Not perfect, it took a lot of a weekend to launch and recover it, and it took a special parking space during the week. But I was sailing, and learning what I could do and what I didn't want to do.

When I settled down to finish my career in one place (and while other people my age were raising and educating kids) I owned bigger boats, that wouldn't go on a trailer but would provide fairly nice accommodations for long weekends and cruises, where I learned more about what I did and did not want to do. I chartered in far away places with congenial sailing friends, and saw all the parts of the world I wanted to see.

Now I'm retired, but still active, and capable of owning and maintaining a larger catamaran. It's horizons exceed mine.

In a few years I will still want a boat, but it won't require as much upkeep, and will be less physically demanding. Then there will be that last vessel, with no upkeep at all.

That's why I say "nobody buys their last boat first!"
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Old 23-02-2012, 10:51   #11
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

+++++ 1


Quote:
Originally Posted by sandy daugherty View Post
I tried to post the url for a recent response in another forum, but could not do so, so I've posted it's entirety here.

Re: How long did it take you to find the right boat?
39 years and counting! Why? because there is no perfectly right boat. But that hasn't kept me from looking, owning, sailing and trading up something like 30 different boats, mostly cats.

Why couldn't I just wait, saving my money, for the best boat?
1. Sailing experience changes your requirements.
2. Getting older changes your requirements.
3. Life changes your requirements.

When I was working for a living I moved a lot. A boat on a trailer was good. Not perfect, it took a lot of a weekend to launch and recover it, and it took a special parking space during the week. But I was sailing, and learning what I could do and what I didn't want to do.

When I settled down to finish my career in one place (and while other people my age were raising and educating kids) I owned bigger boats, that wouldn't go on a trailer but would provide fairly nice accommodations for long weekends and cruises, where I learned more about what I did and did not want to do. I chartered in far away places with congenial sailing friends, and saw all the parts of the world I wanted to see.

Now I'm retired, but still active, and capable of owning and maintaining a larger catamaran. It's horizons exceed mine.

In a few years I will still want a boat, but it won't require as much upkeep, and will be less physically demanding. Then there will be that last vessel, with no upkeep at all.

That's why I say "nobody buys their last boat first!"
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Old 23-02-2012, 11:46   #12
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

I want to know how you like your PDQ 36?
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Old 23-02-2012, 12:30   #13
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

I have heard that Catanas and Privileges hold their value better than most. I suspect Maine Cats and Mantas might fit that category. I do believe that overanalyzing will drive you crazy. Just buy the one that floats your boat.
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Old 23-02-2012, 12:53   #14
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

I hope the next boat we buy is our last one !! But I would not bet on it !! LOL and Im 73 yrs old LOL I know it mite be, but ya never know !! Heck maybe the Cats will come down in price in a couple of years. Then I might try one, but for now we are looking at Monos, as thats what we know! Hope to find the right one soon, Connies off for 5 days coming up and we are off again to FL to look at a motorsailer! Keep lookin and havin fun Bob and Connie
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Old 23-02-2012, 20:06   #15
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Re: Better Value - Used Gemini, PDQ, Lagoon?

per Sandy D. post #9
Disclaimer: I own a PDQ 36 and a Chris White Atlantic 42.
You are evaluating used sandwiches based on the selling price of bread.
You can completely rid your mind of anything you see from a used car pricing guide. Any tangential contact with reality is by pure, fickle chance. Agreed.
As a recovering Yacht Broker I can assure you that only Gemini has sold enough boats (1,000+) to have a reliable trend in depreciation. Visited Lagoon factory in Belleville sur Viein Jan, Bourdeaux in Dec and the Lagoon lit shows 1,400 boats built and Gemini is 4 yrs older in cats. And saw them being built @ the Hunter factory in Nov. Gemini 105Mc what is that going to do for your numbers having a reliable trend with their switch to subcontracting via Hunter?? Just looked up # for sale on Yacht World and there were 69 Lagoons and 30 Gemini and on Yacht Council 502 Lagoons and 117 Gemini.

Selling prices for Lagoon, FP, PDQ and others fit no curve whatsoever. DISAGREE! IMHO is non factual statement! (Details 2 para below) Banks use numbers/curves/%’s for valuation & loans

You would be making a big mistake to draw ANY conclusion about a boat purchase based on a few other purchases. Agree

Any boat is worth exactly what a buyer and seller agree upon. No two boats are alike. You can add up what the boat cost new plus all the additional equipment added plus the cost to add it and the cost to maintain it and you will arrive at a useless number. Some half truths IMHO in your statement but IMHO THIS IS WHAT the salesman wants you to believe hence all these “guides” and gimmicks and games to distort the facts and confuse you to pick your pockets while lining their pockets. Refuse to play their game and deal only in cold hard unemotional facts. Know the USA and the Caymans have banking rules that governs the most money that they can lend on objects like cars, houses, planes and boats. Called my bank in Dallas and in the Caymans (where my ILOC was issued and asked them what is the max amount that they would lend on a boat with these specs. Both called back within 30 min and on a multi-million dollar boat they both gave me the exact same number to the penny. This is the amount the banks rules say is the max they can loan within their guidelines. No emotion involved but they usu want you to pay 10-20% more to cover the brokers comm. And a few months payments so you have some of your own money invested into it also reducing risk of repo.
Rather than waste my time anymore chasing down comps (comparable sales) I simply call 2 banks I deal with and sometimes a reference library that I work closely with. Long story short no broker involved (another yacht broker story for later) and they accepted my offer which to the penny was exactly what they came up with also. Not the number the yacht broker had listed which was 60% higher than I paid. Take it or leave it offer and no emotions involved. I do not play the car haggling game. Closed Feb 10 2012.

No matter how stone-cold objective and market savvy a seller is, his price is emotional, and so is yours. Way most people poorly play “the buying game” but not the savvy purchaser/biz person who only deals with unemotional numbers within safe guidelines. Never forget it is your money or their money can’t be both.

There is a solution: Sail everything you can get yourself invited on, save your money, and at some auspicious point in time what you think you want and what you think you can afford will meet a seller at some acceptable price. Sage advice.

And remember; nobody buys his last boat first. Excellent article posted for URL. Thanks.
Sorry long but hope this helps some others out there save some of their hard earned money or get a much larger boat for less. Not attempting to pick on you Sandy merely trying to point out the other side of the coin via another viewpoint. You did offer some excellent advice on many points of your post and have many other excellent posts I have read here on CF.
Cheers,
John
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