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26-02-2014, 13:55
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#256
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Boat: Teak Yawl, 37'
Posts: 2,980
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ann T. Cate
EB,
When you do that, understand the limitations of grib files: they are computer generated, no human weather forecaster has intervened. So what you get is a computer fantasy of what may happen. The maps are so concrete in appearance, one is tempted to believe it, and make decisions based on what you see, AND they have their limitations.
The devil is in the details. The shapes of weather systems are based on data, as are the wave height estimates, but when you project it into the future it is at best an educated guess.
And now, [I]sail on, Boatie ![I]
Ann
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Yes GRIBs are a FORECAST!! How is that a limitation? The computer fantasies use measured initial conditions and project into the future. It is the origin of all weather forecasts as far as I know.
Additionally, off shore the big picture provided by the GRIBs was more sufficient for navagation, local conditions were not of interest. You just want to know where the big lows are tracking two to three days out so you can manuver for better postion.
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26-02-2014, 14:08
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#257
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Home Port: West Palm Beach, Live: Seattle
Boat: Beneteau Oceanis 473
Posts: 315
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Quote:
Originally Posted by atoll
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Thank you.
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26-02-2014, 14:08
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#258
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 5,983
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
GRIBs are OK but usually not as good as when a human forecaster gets involved. Personally I prefer a good old fashion weather fax.
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26-02-2014, 14:08
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#259
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Varies - Currently Western Caribbean
Boat: IP 40
Posts: 386
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Thanks folks again don't want to derail the thread, I understand the limitations of forecasts, they're not even all that accurate 3-5 days out when forecasting for the local area, so offshore and away from direct observation has to be WAY more challenging.
The posts with boatie's position and what happening around him have been pretty cool from my perspective. As would an understanding of what info he actually has available to him on passage. Can't wait to hear what actually happened and the why's behind his route changes. So far this is one of my favorite CF threads.
Now back to our previously scheduled broadcast...
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26-02-2014, 14:14
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#260
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 5,983
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Well the more you sail offshore the more you realize that forecasts are often not accurate.
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26-02-2014, 14:19
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#261
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: gettin naughty on the beach in cornwall
Boat: 63 custom alloy sloop,macwester26,prout snowgoose 37 elite catamaran!
Posts: 10,594
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Quote:
Originally Posted by robert sailor
Well the more you sail offshore the more you realize that forecasts are often not accurate.
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good source here for planning,
Atlas of Pilot Charts for the Major Oceans of the World
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26-02-2014, 14:20
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#262
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Cruising the Gulf of Mexico.
Boat: 1980 Morgan 415
Posts: 1,452
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Quote:
Originally Posted by robert sailor
Well the more you sail offshore the more you realize that forecasts are often not accurate.
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Ask a farmer or anyone that ever planned a picnic.
__________________
Working on spending my children's inheritance.
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26-02-2014, 14:34
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#263
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cat herder, extreme blacksheep
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 18,967
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
weather is only one reason why it is why is bad to sail to a schedule or make plans.....
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26-02-2014, 14:50
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#264
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cruiser
Join Date: May 2010
Location: SF Bay Area; Former Annapolis and MA Liveaboard.
Boat: Looking and saving for my next...mid-atlantic coast
Posts: 6,197
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag
weather is only one reason why it is why is bad to sail to a schedule or make plans.....
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The other is $$$$
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26-02-2014, 14:59
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#265
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Australia
Boat: CT 54... for our sins!
Posts: 2,083
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Quote:
Originally Posted by atoll
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Thanks Alex. Very interesting
Vic
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26-02-2014, 15:11
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#266
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Eternal Member
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Australia
Boat: Lagoon 400
Posts: 3,650
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
my guess is boaty has no weather forecasting aboard. I don't think he would buy a spot if he had a satphone or HF radio. I think he would have downloaded a 9 day forecast and is doing his best to position himself with that information as well as witht he weather he is seeing., i.e., head to the edge of the Azores high and follow up the NE's
The new owner is a CF member, he may be able to shed some light if he is reading this thread
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26-02-2014, 15:14
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#267
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cruiser
Join Date: May 2010
Location: SF Bay Area; Former Annapolis and MA Liveaboard.
Boat: Looking and saving for my next...mid-atlantic coast
Posts: 6,197
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Perhaps the new owner had the equipment?
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26-02-2014, 15:29
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#269
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Nearly an old salt
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Lefkas Marina ,Greece
Boat: Bavaria 36
Posts: 22,801
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
Quote:
Originally Posted by monte
my guess is boaty has no weather forecasting aboard. I don't think he would buy a spot if he had a satphone or HF radio. I think he would have downloaded a 9 day forecast and is doing his best to position himself with that information as well as witht he weather he is seeing., i.e., head to the edge of the Azores high and follow up the NE's
The new owner is a CF member, he may be able to shed some light if he is reading this thread
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I'd be surprised. Few people would take such a dramatic course change without a clear perspective of what the purpose is. You don't go chasing around the Atlantic looking for the " right " wind by chance
Dave
__________________
Interested in smart boat technology, networking and all things tech
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26-02-2014, 15:40
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#270
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Eternal Member
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Australia
Boat: Lagoon 400
Posts: 3,650
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Re: Atlantic Delivery
well a spot probably cost Phil about $500, which is equivalent to 2000 cigarettes or 1000 cigarettes and 100 beers, so Im thinking unless it was essential equipment (for safety SOS or emergency SMS) theres no way in the world Phil would fork out just to keep us amused with his progress...
I may be wrong, he may be planning a Movie!
Its also possible a passing ship said 'where the hell do you think you're going' about 3 minutes before he turned South
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