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Old 28-09-2009, 14:53   #136
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We are currently buying and selling a boat. I believe it's supply and demand. Boats like Lagoons, fp, Leopards etc. are a dime a dozen where other boats such as PDQ 44 Freydis 46 etc. are rarely found on the market and will probably hold their value.
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Old 28-09-2009, 15:03   #137
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smj, I agree it's supply and demand, but disagree with the coorelation to PDQ and Freydis. How many of them where built? They may hold their value and not sell at all as buyers are not comfortable with a low production boat.
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Old 28-09-2009, 16:19   #138
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Augusto,

Good point. I've got two sailboats. One is for sale. The other is brand new - just launched. A fool and his money are soon parted...

While I may have a bias towards predicting increasing boat prices, it isn't particularly emotional. If I'm wrong (and my wife will provide you a long list of other examples), the difference in eventual sale price is not going to change my life nor is it in the top 10 of my financial mis-steps . It's a purely financial calculation to balance the cost of carrying the boat (including currency and inflation risk) against the probability that we're at the bottom now rather than on a ledge.

Sure it's hard to believe cruising sailboat prices could come back (and I don't see any such hope for powerboats which are a glut). But I would have found it much harder to believe that the Garmin stock I bought in May would be up 75% (more than paying for my new boat's Garmin electronics).

You win some and you lose some.


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Old 28-09-2009, 16:38   #139
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Talus, thanks for the explanation, and adding to your argument I would like to say that such decisions are not only taken within asset classes (various catamaran offers) but also between various asset classes. Each of us will be asking ourselves if we should buy a Cat, or a house or stocks etc. and weighing all aspects of the purchases. A USD 350000+ purchase is not a impulsive purchase.
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Old 28-09-2009, 17:16   #140
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Augusto - a $350K purchase in definitely not an impulse buy for me. However, I'm sure for many past buyers it was easier to justify when your house had appreciated in the double digits and there was no apparent end to it's use as a cash machine.

--------

I ran into this Retrospective of the Canadian Sailboat Market (it's a bit dated). It is Canadian-centric and deals with "leaners" under 45 feet but the history is interesting.

Written in 2001, the section on the 1990's seem eerily similar to today. For example, on the west coast we are seeing a increase in the number of slips available as they did in the 1990's. Of course this could be due to any number of factors.

Noticeably, we are also seeing an increase in the number of boat shows and brokerage open houses. IMO this indicates the brokers have the time/incentive/need to get the boats out and shown, rather than sitting back and letting the buyers come to them.

I have not seen a "dramatic drop" in boat prices but there has been a definite slide. The author quotes the 1990's as being characterized by 15%-30% price reductions to sell. I don't think we are there...yet.
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Old 28-09-2009, 18:05   #141
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Rigamarole, Some may not be comfortable with a low production boat but there are enough people out there that appreciate high quality designed and built boats that they maintain their value and usually don't remain on the market long.
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Old 28-09-2009, 19:28   #142
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IMO- those low production boats are sitting the best. They do not have 40+ other PDQ's ever on the market at one time. You are lucky to find 3 at any given time. You just are not going to get the selling war that you are going to with the high production boats. If I want a PDQ I have the 3, Lagoon, I would go with a 42 or 44 and that opens me up to over 75 Boats.
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Old 29-09-2009, 06:41   #143
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New figures just released show real estate foreclosures continuing to break records. When you look inside the real estate releases, you discover that 2/3's of all home sales are repos which is the reason why sales are 'up' but prices are down. If the market were actually bottoming, prices would have stabilized. They have not, and can not.

Bloomberg recently ran an article which stated that up to 7 million repo homes have yet to find their way to the market. The banks are sitting on them, waiting for their local real estate market to stabilize. It's inevitable, housing prices will continue to fall.

One last comment. The Fed releases two graphs that track what they call leading indicators. Each measuring a different sector of the economy. The one based on Wall St. numbers is going up. This is the one most often cited in newspaper reports that the recession has ended. However, the 2nd report which is based on the 'real' economy and is what folks on Main St. USA experience, is not rising.

There is a distinct disconnect between the financial markets and the real economy. Be very careful about predicting the 'bottom'.

How will all of this effect boat prices? Hard to say. If I was pressed to make a prediction this morning, I would say prices will continue to fall.
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Old 29-09-2009, 14:44   #144
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One last comment.
LOL!

No offense Rick.

I always like reading your insights.
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Old 29-09-2009, 14:47   #145
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LOL!

No offense Rick.

I always like reading your insights.
Sigh.... well, you know me, I couldn't resist...
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Old 08-10-2009, 11:42   #146
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I just got back on this forum and have enjoyed this thread - lot of good thoughts.

Yes, there are a LOT of cats out there, but each brand is quite different, and each buyer has his own needs. We spent years looking, first at monos, then cats, chartered and traveled to some great parts of the world (Carib, Greece, South Africa, Malaysia) to try out boats. We finally decided the best boat for a cruising couple like us (in our 50s) was a Manta and bought one in 2006. Manta produced about 8 boats a year since 1994, and even the early ones are in very good condition because they've always been designed for owners, never for charter. They're loaded with cruising goodies and comforts you'd never see in a 4-cabin, 4-head ex charter boat. Like the PDQs, Atlantics, Catanas, Broadblues and other low-production, owner-focused boats, they are high-end, but seem to be holding values, or at least losing them at a slower rate. I have been tracking prices and have a list on our website that shows asking prices for the past 8 months or so, though I do not often get final sold prices. (If you're interested in Mantas you can checkout MantaCatamaransForSale.com.)

Whether you buy new or used, the 'extras' can add $100,000 or more very quickly - watermaker, generator, solar panels, good dinghy+engine, good electronics, spinnaker, ssb........ You are more likely to find these goodies on an owner-version boat, though some Robertson-Cane, Lagoon and FPs do have them.

Also, location is a key factor in purchase of a boat. Even if you can save $30,000 do you really want to buy a boat in Curacao, if you want to use it in the US or even the Bahamas? (Our Manta list is broken down by location - USEC, USWC, Caribbean.)

Brokers take 10% of the sale price, so buying direct certainly has a financial impact on both buyer and seller.

Good luck to everyone reading this - both buyers and sellers.....
Cheers!
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Old 08-10-2009, 13:15   #147
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.

Good luck to everyone reading this - both buyers and sellers.....
Cheers!
Which is the one that started splitting apart? More than one?
Was it a Mark IV?
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Old 08-10-2009, 14:25   #148
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Old 08-10-2009, 15:07   #149
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If you have something to tell, Therapy, then Tell us.
I don't tell things that are unsubstantiated.

I heard one (1) "story".

That ain't enough.

I am pretty sure the private Manta site would have some info, don't you think?
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Old 08-10-2009, 15:41   #150
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No one gets into the Manta site unless they are owners (I tried), but they will provide an email list of names to pose your question to.
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