West Palm to West End crossing next Wednesday

[Bifrost7]

I subscribed to Chris Parker's forecast and had a nice window to cross on Sunday, the day after my impeller exploded and traveled from the water pump">raw water pump into the tube stack of the heat exchanger while simultaneously the thermostat on the fresh water side died. Timing is everything, right? Additionally, the new house batteries were depleted. The purchase of a new portable generator brought the charge back in the range of 12.5v but I fear the capacity of all 6 batteries will never get back in the 13.4v range (not sure whether to add it to my BoatUS claim and buck for new batteries or run them as is).

My down time for repairs took place on the hook out back of The Old Key Lime House in Lantana, Florida. This ideal location afforded me (as a musician) to meet some talented musicians and be invited to play harmonica with 6 different house bands over the ensuing week or so...fun times!

So, I am once again waiting for a south wind to begin my crossing. I am grateful to have engine failures when I did. "Bloom where you are planted," right?

[skipgundlach]

Congratulations on good decisions all around. Though, while I don't know the BoatUS issue, if you had a claim which could include the batteries, by all means go for it as well. It sounds like a lightning strike; problems, in our conversations with several cruising buddies who have had strikes has it that problems show up later, beyond the initially obvious stuff.

If your top charge is 12.5, you're already under what should be a rested (not less than 24 hours without in or out amps) battery's 12.6 minimum (my 2-year-old Trojan monsters showed in the 12.7 range after two weeks at rest, e.g., and their size has nothing to do with that; they're still FLAs)...

[Suijin]

I’d go on Tuesday. Better wind although the seastate should be a bit more settled on Wed.

[skipgundlach]

Originally Posted by Suijin

I’d go on Tuesday. Better wind although the seastate should be a bit more settled on Wed.

Like this, truncated, from Chris?

"Larger vessels could consider going today but expect to be motoring into wind mostly around 10k. Significant E Trades are expected Sat9-Sun10. Conditions are too rough for any travel Sat9-Sun10 Still no E Bound Mon11.

OUTLOOK: We will see adverse ESE trades veer closer to S by Tue12. There may be a window of opportunity or two for travel around Wed13 as a weak RIDGE is pushed ahead of the next FRONT, but the window will likely be quite small, if any. "

[mjscottinnc]

You will be able to find a number of interpretations and predictions, in reality they are all working off the same raw data.

Look at a number of predictions, find commonality, and lastly take a look at the NOAA WPC and surface analysis charts before making a decision. When I have internet access in the US the websites I used all year round are www.spaghettimodels.com (Mike's Weather Page) and www.passageweather.com in the Abacos - www.barometerbob.com

Enjoy your trip.

Mike Scott
Aine

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by skipgundlach

Like this, truncated, from Chris?



"Larger vessels could consider going today but expect to be motoring into wind mostly around 10k. Significant E Trades are expected Sat9-Sun10. Conditions are too rough for any travel Sat9-Sun10 Still no E Bound Mon11.



OUTLOOK: We will see adverse ESE trades veer closer to S by Tue12. There may be a window of opportunity or two for travel around Wed13 as a weak RIDGE is pushed ahead of the next FRONT, but the window will likely be quite small, if any. "

Yeah I’d rather have more wind on the front end than test the accuracy of the back end.

It’s a mistake that a fair number of cruisers make. They wait until conditions are perfect, then regret it because the window closes on them at the back end of the passage.

[mjscottinnc]

Originally Posted by Suijin

Yeah I’d rather have more wind on the front end than test the accuracy of the back end.

It’s a mistake that a fair number of cruisers make. They wait until conditions are perfect, then regret it because the window closes on them at the back end of the passage.

I can second that. A very wise cruiser taught me his method.

1. Look for a 2 - 3 day window.
2. If the first day matches the forecast, drive to the beach and look for elephants in the stream.
3. If there aren't any and the forecast hasn't changed, cross over.


Coming back can be a bit different due to less current information. But the pattern still holds true.

[rlg]

As has been said, most weather sites are using the same info. I like magicseaweed.com, I find it easier to "see" what is going on than passage weather for example.

[Suijin]

Mon/Tues is now looking better. Daytime crossing on Wed is out as the wind is going to clock to the north.

Right now my plan would be to leave early Mon morn to get in Tues afternoon. Issue is out of West Palm you’re going to have some serious southeasting to do once you’re through the stream. If the wind does not start to clock that’s going to be a nasty slog into a headwind.

[Bifrost7]

I agree! Thank you.

[jewt]

Fair winds and calm seas and watch out for dragons.


jewt S/V Bifrost (8)

New Bern, NC

[Bifrost7]

I plan to initially skirt the coastline south for 20 miles beating directly into the wind but remaining in less than 200' before turning due east at a right angle to the gulf stream. I will still have some S-Easting but plan to arrive at daybreak on Wednesday prior to the wind changing to W-NW.

[Bifrost7]

Got to have all new batteries...argh. so, I'll get over to the islands this weekend instead of Tuesday-Wednesday...few more days...no biggie...but ahhhhhh, fresh batteries!