True blue water boat extinction a fait accompli?

[Skipper434343]

Julie , call the guys in Manitowoc Marina and check the Delphia 40.3 , I think you will be impress , take somebody who's opinion you trust and go over every detail of it.I think she is on yacht world (dark blue hull).

[Polux]

Originally Posted by CHAZ

Ahoi Polux,
have a look again on the weather charts in El Pinguinos link and you will see an arrow on each front with speed and direction.

2 cents

Martin

Hi!

Yes you are right but regarding that big storm that sunk several boats with sustained winds of 60K and 90K gusts the speed of the weather system never reached 30K and even on the worst of it, on the "dangerous quadrant", system movement speed was only 12K (second picture), giving you a good chance to evade it (with a fast boat).




http://www.bethandevans.com/pdf/qbs.pdf

Just wanting to point out that a weather system moving at 30K is not that common, happens mostly on high latitudes and the wind speed has not a direct relation with the weather system speed.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by Don C L

Thank you for this info and link! This is excellent info and a perfect example of why CF can be great.

You are very welcome.

The Dashew's have done a great service to the cruising community by releasing their two books for free. I read their books first and then the Chesneu/Chen 500MB book. I think it would be best to read Chesneau and Chen book first and then read the Dashew books. The Dashew's use actual events to illustrate the effects of weather and it is very helpful to have some understanding of the weather to understand what the Dashew's illustrate in their books. The Dashews do try to educate the reader but the more you know about the weather, the better it is when reading their books. The Dashew's use the 500 MB charts as part of the weather discussion and the Chesneua/Chen book does a great job of explaining the use of the 500 MB charts.

Later,
Dan

[Jim Cate]

Originally Posted by Polux

Hi!

Yes you are right but regarding that big storm that sunk several boats with sustained winds of 60K and 90K gusts the speed of the weather system never reached 30K and even on the worst of it, on the "dangerous quadrant", system movement speed was only 12K (second picture), giving you a good chance to evade it (with a fast boat).




http://www.bethandevans.com/pdf/qbs.pdf

Just wanting to point out that a weather system moving at 30K is not that common, happens mostly on high latitudes and the wind speed has not a direct relation with the weather system speed.

It is true that the low centers often do not go all that fast, even in cyclones. But in the ~35-45 S latitudes where many of us sail, the fiercest winds are often associated with the frontal systems that extend northward from the deep depressions down in the 50s... and those fronts do indeed FREQUENTLY travel at 25-45 knots over the bottom. To be clear: that is NOT the wind speed, but the speed of advance of the front.

As example, today's MSL shows two frontal systems to the south of Australia. One is moving at 30 knots, the other at 50! And this is mid-summer. I would post the chart but don't know how to extract it from the BOM website.

Jim

[El Pinguino]

Here you go Jim...

What Pollux doesn't seem to be aware of is that all of Europe from about Naples north is above 40*N..... so I think you will find that systems thereabouts move just as fast as our ones in the south.

[El Pinguino]

I am also unsure how a fast boat will get you out of trouble if you are halfway across the Bight and a big system like that came along at 50 knots. In that case I think that seaworthiness would trump speed every time.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

...
As example, today's MSL shows two frontal systems to the south of Australia. One is moving at 30 knots, the other at 50! And this is mid-summer. I would post the chart but don't know how to extract it from the BOM website.

Jim

That's odd, a weather system travelling at 50k is a lot more than the maximum speed this meteorologist says it is possible...on the worst of conditions.

"If there is a jet stream and it is particularly strong, it can drag weather systems at fairly high speeds, up to no more than about 50 miles per hour perhaps. "

David R. Cook
Meteorologist
Climate Research Section
Environmental Science Division
Argonne National Laboratory

Probably he was not speaking of a front but of a full weather system.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Polux

That's odd, a weather system travelling at 50k is a lot more than the maximum speed this meteorologist says it is possible...on the worst of conditions.

[COLOR="Blue"]"If there is a jet stream and it is particularly strong, it can drag weather systems at fairly high speeds, up to no more than about 50 miles per hour perhaps.

50 knots is not 'a lot more than ' .... ' about 50 miles per hour perhaps'...

Best you take it up with the Australian BoM... tell them that you reckon they are wrong....

There are a few ifs, buts, and maybes in Mr Cook's statement...

[El Pinguino]

Here you go, pudding complete with proof...
lookee here Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis
then click on 'animate' .. its up top leftish...

[Polux]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

50 knots is not 'a lot more than ' .... ' about 50 miles per hour perhaps'...

Best you take it up with the Australian BoM... tell them that you reckon they are wrong....

There are a few ifs, buts, and maybes in Mr Cook's statement...

I was not contesting just trying to understand. As I said I guess he was meaning not a front but a complete weather system. Yes he said not more than 50 MPH that is about 44k more or less and since he was talking about a maximum it would not be common and the chances of happening on the summer very low.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Polux

Yes he said not more than 50 MPH that is about 44k more or less and since he was talking about a maximum it would not be common and the chances of happening on the summer very low.

No... he said 'he said not more than 50 mph PERHAPS' and they seem common enough just now.

Its summer here at present and they are still rolling on through.... they just get further north in winter is all.....

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by dannc

the Chesneua/Chen book does a great job of explaining the use of the 500 MB charts.

Later,
Dan

Thanks Dan, just ordered from Amazon.... hard cover plus $2.99 for ( my very first) kindle.

Don't think I will every warm to kindle.... call me old fashioned if you must.....

El Ping

[dannc]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Thanks Dan, just ordered from Amazon.... hard cover plus $2.99 for ( my very first) kindle.

Don't think I will every warm to kindle.... call me old fashioned if you must.....

El Ping

Welcome.

I was old fashioned about the Kindle... Until, I got one.

My first Kindle was bought because the cost savings of the digital version of the Wall Street Journal vs the paper version would pay for the Kindle within a year. The digital WSJ arrives on the Kindle over night and is ready to read where as the paper version is at the mail box, sometimes, and the mailbox is a mile round trip from the house.

We started talking about getting a boat 15 years ago. Two of the big problems we had were computers and books. I have a house hold full of books and I am constantly reading. How to do this on a boat? 15 years ago it really was not possible. Now, with a Kindle and a laptop, it is easy peasy.

I think my current Kindle could hold all of the books I own if they were digitized. I stopped almost all of my magazine subscriptions because they are not on the Kindle. I have a stack of magazines to read but they don't get read because they are not on the Kindle. At night, I can read in the dark with the Kindle, which I can't do with a physical book or magazine, and this is why the physical magazines are not being bought.

While I really like the Kindle, I still buy hard back books on boating subjects. Those books are for the boat one day and I want a physical book as well as Kindle versions. I guess that makes me sorta old fashioned.

Later,
Dan

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by Jon Eisberg

Hi Frank - that's an excerpt from one of Steve Dashew's books...

For those who may not be aware, both his MARINER'S WEATHER HANDBOOK, and SURVIVING THE STORM are now available as free downloads from SetSail...

Both are remarkable resources, roughly 1,200 pages in total, originally sold for about $70 each... Scroll down to the bottom of the linked page to click on the download for each:

SetSail » Blog Archive » Weather Forecasting, Storm Tactics & Successful Cruising – Plus An Offer You Can’t Refuse

I just have to second that it is just amazing that the Dashews offer these 2 great books for free.