Is the Market Really this Bad ?

[boatman61]

Yeah... enough of this... lets get back to knocking HR's and W32's....
Just kiddin guys...
PS... and Hunters... just for Don... gets his cheeks all rosey...

[Rhapsody-NS27]

About the market... It is interesting to watch some boats over time listed on Yacht World and notice the price go down, go down some more and a little more.... A couple times, I've seen listings go up, only to go down again. Unless actively watching the listings, can't really tell the history of the listing from price changes or how long they've been listed.
Plenty to go see.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by Dan_78

About the market... It is interesting to watch some boats over time listed on Yacht World and notice the price go down, go down some more and a little more.... A couple times, I've seen listings go up, only to go down again. Unless actively watching the listings, can't really tell the history of the listing from price changes or how long they've been listed.
Plenty to go see.

I've noticed the same thing. Is there a way to estimate how long a listing has existed? It seem like the YW# is code as 12345-1234256 with the first numbers indicating broker, and the second when it was listed, the second in sequential order.

The question is, how to decipher the second set of numbers to an approximate date?

Regardless, it still amazes me that the HR I as OP discussed has not sold yet; I doubt there is much a new owner would need to do, with the exception of having a really good look at the motor, including an oil analysis.

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by avb3

I've noticed the same thing. Is there a way to estimate how long a listing has existed? It seem like the YW# is code as 12345-1234256 with the first numbers indicating broker, and the second when it was listed, the second in sequential order.

The question is, how to decipher the second set of numbers to an approximate date?

Regardless, it still amazes me that the HR I as OP discussed has not sold yet; I doubt there is much a new owner would need to do, with the exception of having a really good look at the motor, including an oil analysis.

Funny thing about oil analysis is that all the owner has to do is change the oil and the report comes back as clean.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

Funny thing about oil analysis is that all the owner has to do is change the oil and the report comes back as clean.

Yup, that's why you run the motor during the sailing test. Although testing newly changed oil does not give you as complete a picture as testing oil that has been use for some time, it will indicate things like coolant contamination, as well as possible fuel contamination. It will give less of an indication of metal wear, however, if it does, then you know you have a real problem.

Fresh oil analysis will only show problems, not eliminate others that older oil will indicate. In either case, it is something that needs to be done before purchase.

In addition, looking for signs of contamination on things like the drain plug or where the oil is poured in can indicate problem areas.

It doesn't eliminate other issues, but it can point out existing ones. It is one tool in evaluation of an engine.

[boatman61]

Damn.... and for years I've been relying on a dipstick, a screwdriver and the start button for diagnosis...

[Sand crab]

Originally Posted by avb3

I've noticed the same thing. Is there a way to estimate how long a listing has existed? It seem like the YW# is code as 12345-1234256 with the first numbers indicating broker, and the second when it was listed, the second in sequential order.

The question is, how to decipher the second set of numbers to an approximate date?

Regardless, it still amazes me that the HR I as OP discussed has not sold yet; I doubt there is much a new owner would need to do, with the exception of having a really good look at the motor, including an oil analysis.

I started a thread about this with no results
http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...des-56418.html
And there were others.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Damn.... and for years I've been relying on a dipstick, a screwdriver and the start button for diagnosis...

So how are you sure that clatter from the diesel is not pistons changing holes? lol

[TomandAnitas34]

This is another example of a well maintained boat, huge list of new equipment, and reasonable price, just sitting. 1981 Cheoy Lee ketch Sail Boat For Sale - keyharboryachtsales.com I would have thought this one would have been gone in a few weeks. Tim's Tayana, another nice boat. 1981 Tayana Vancouver 42 CC Sail Boat For Sale - www.yachtworld.com I thought this deal would be gone in a week also.

I don't have a crystal ball, I don't claim any kind of special insight and I don't have a tin-foil hat either. There is more going on in this market than just prices. I truly believe that fear is the single most significant aspect that has paralyzed the sailboat market. In the final analysis, in order to sell a boat, a new owner must be able to visualize his future on that boat. If someone cannot visualize the future, especially his financial future in how he will pay for living with/on the boat, there will be no sale. It is irrelevant if the motor is new, the decks are solid, the varnish is fresh and so forth. Even to some extent, the price becomes irrelevant.

Today, right now, very few people can visualize a safe financial path to the future. In the housing market, the standard is the 30 year mortgage. The average good paying job lasts 5 to 7 years. How can you take on a 30 year responsibility knowing that you will have to get 2 to 5 other jobs, that pay equally well, on your way to paying off that house ? It is a moot point in an inflating market, where you can always sell the house but today you cannot. So the wisdom becomes, " Be careful which boat you buy. You will be stuck with it forever ".

[Anzo]

Damn, that Tayana 42cc is a nice boat. If people are dragging feet over that one, at that price, even figuring for some (a lot) or refrib, I guess I'll be keeping Ol' 'Zerk forever.....and having a 2nd boat like the Tayana.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by avb3

So how are you sure that clatter from the diesel is not pistons changing holes? lol

Thats where the screwdriver stethoscope comes into play...

[Mexdon]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Thats where the screwdriver stethoscope comes into play...

I am too young to go deaf.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Thats where the screwdriver stethoscope comes into play...

Broom handle works just as well, and one doesn't have to go through all the gymnastic contortions... BTDT

And after all that, THEN get an oil analysis.

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by TomandAnitas34

This is another example of a well maintained boat, huge list of new equipment, and reasonable price, just sitting. 1981 Cheoy Lee ketch Sail Boat For Sale - keyharboryachtsales.com I would have thought this one would have been gone in a few weeks. Tim's Tayana, another nice boat. 1981 Tayana Vancouver 42 CC Sail Boat For Sale - www.yachtworld.com I thought this deal would be gone in a week also. I don't have a crystal ball, I don't claim any kind of special insight and I don't have a tin-foil hat either. There is more going on in this market than just prices. I truly believe that fear is the single most significant aspect that has paralyzed the sailboat market. In the final analysis, in order to sell a boat, a new owner must be able to visualize his future on that boat. If someone cannot visualize the future, especially his financial future in how he will pay for living with/on the boat, there will be no sale. It is irrelevant if the motor is new, the decks are solid, the varnish is fresh and so forth. Even to some extent, the price becomes irrelevant. Today, right now, very few people can visualize a safe financial path to the future. In the housing market, the standard is the 30 year mortgage. The average good paying job lasts 5 to 7 years. How can you take on a 30 year responsibility knowing that you will have to get 2 to 5 other jobs, that pay equally well, on your way to paying off that house ? It is a moot point in an inflating market, where you can always sell the house but today you cannot. So the wisdom becomes, " Be careful which boat you buy. You will be stuck with it forever ".

I have my own theory which I formulized while I dabbled in Real estate. I bought a home in Kona Hawaii. Everyone said I was silly for buying in a tourist market and that prices would never go up. That was 2001. Then when it tripled in value in 2004 1/2, I put it on the market with the thought that the GDP only goes up 3% a year and the house had gone up 300%. Those same people said I was crazy. The bottom fell out over the next 4 or so years. Then I bought here in Ca., cash, a forclosure for 1/2 the value it sold at in 2006. My point is. When I tell someone they should buy, the don't because (like you say) are in fear about it. When I tell them they should sell...same thing.
My point is...that it does not matter what the market is. When people operate from a place of fear they will always find an excuse why they shouldn't make a move. Just look at all the people on this site (and this thread) that grumbles at a good boat for 1/4 of the price. Chances are they will be here in 5 years saying they should have bought 5 years ago.
I've taken some risks over the years and some have bit me in the caboose. But in all, I have done ok and had a ball along the way.

[JanetGroene]

I have a friend who has bought and sold a lot of boats. I don't know how he makes out when selling but his first offer is always HALF the asking price. Ouch. Sad part is, it's often snapped up. Yes, the market is bad and yes, many sellers are desperate. Depends, of course on the boat and where she lies.