Irma survivor.. yay or nay?

[crankysailor]

So I just came across a boat that was in Nanny Cay during Irma but came thru reportedly unharmed except for a couple of minor things (a solar panel and an anemometer)... I guess anything is possible even after seeing the pictures of the devastation etc... but "get it surveyed" aside (of course).. would there be anything that would be of concern?

The same boat was in an unrelated event also hit by lightning.. perhaps a non direct hit.. some things got fried like the VHF and SSB but word is everything else checks out. Would there be anything that might spring up later down the road for example? what should one check after such an occurrence? thx!

ps: I am seeing the lightning thing as a plus.. what are the odds for the same boat to get hit twice? [emoji16]

[valhalla360]

Lightning is more concerning. Could be lots of electronic gremlins and they may not show up for a while.

Assuming you do a good look over and get her surveyed and discount a bit for possible electronic work, I wouldn't rule her out.

Probably best to ask for a video review first. Ask them to go to the boat with skype (or similar video calling) and give you a tour of the boat. This allows you to ask for a close up look at anything dodgy before taking the time to go look. If they refuse, it's a big red flag.

[GordMay]

The Empire State Building in New York and the Sears Tower in Chicago are each hit thousands of times per year by lightning bolts.
So it's totally and completely wrong to say 'lightning never strikes twice in the same place'. In fact, the opposite is true. Lightning is more likely to strike the same structure twice, given that the same weather patterns are likely to repeat themselves in the same geographical landscape.

[SailsWithFists]

It is possible for lightning to splinter and put thousands of microscopic holes in a hull below the waterline as it seeks ground (rare, but I have seen a couple of cases.) The holes are impossible to see, and cannot be detected. The only way to know is to splash the boat and see if water weeps in. It will look as if the hull is sweating below the waterline.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The Empire State Building in New York and the Sears Tower in Chicago are each hit thousands of times per year by lightning bolts.
So it's totally and completely wrong to say 'lightning never strikes twice in the same place'. In fact, the opposite is true. Lightning is more likely to strike the same structure twice, given that the same weather patterns are likely to repeat themselves in the same geographical landscape.

Exactly. Had a friend with a 26' boat that was hit twice about 12 months apart. Different marinas each time and he was one of the smallest boats in the marina. Guess his boat just had some kind of magnetic attraction.

[Gary Mc]

My understanding is that the Charter Companies in the BVIs are looking for good used boats to replace the ones that were severely damages in the "cane". I would wonder why, if this is a good boat, that it has not been picked up by one of them?

[uncle stinkybob]

There are thousands of boats that survived and just because some charter company has not bought this one yet means nothing. It's a boat, survey, use your best judgment, then buy or don't buy.

[contrail]

With regard to there being "thousands of boats that survived", in the BVI that is simply not the case. Our normal charter fleet total size is about 900 boats. Of these, about 40% belonged to Moorings/Sunsail, who have not been able to share their data, as yet, but who look to have been hit about the same as the others. Of the 60% of the fleet that has been tallied, about 60% of that number has been destroyed or declared a loss. If that number can be extrapolated to include Moorings/Sunsail, that means that about 360 vessels were spared. About 7 % were damaged so lightly as to be easily gotten ready for charters. This would include things like cosmetic damage or missing stanchions and pulpits, things like that. Actually untouched? Almost none. The rest are in widely varied states of repair.

Enough have been repaired, and enough new boats have arrived, that almost all of the charter companies are now functional, and guests are almost universally having a great time. The companies are getting things back together much more rapidly than one might suppose, and will probably be going full-bore, at their previous strength, by the end of 2019

With regard to private boats, it's much harder to get statistics, but it seems that more of them, by %, were not lost. This is likely because most of them were ashore, and if they were damaged, it was probably a case of them being knocked over; they are predominately monohulls. The total number of these boats that were actually in the BVI, at the time, is harder to determine, but a reasonable guess might be around 400. There are, of course, lots of smaller boats like dinghys and small power boats, etc, etc, that are not the subject of our interest.

It is also the case that a mast is a considerable part of the value of a boat, and finding a "used" one is a real challenge. So, there are small boats, particularly older ones, which have been declared a CTL (Constructive Total Loss), with very little damage other than having lost their mast, which many did when they fell over. I think we calculated that there were somewhere around 700 - 800 masts lost in the hurricanes! So, if you get one of those boats, start thinking about where you are going to find a mast, or how much a new one might cost and how long it might take to have it made.

Questions for the OP: 1) when you say you have located this boat, does that mean you are physically here, or have you simply heard or read about it? I am actually IN Nanny Cay, so could give it a quick eyeball from the outside. If you are not here, you really need to get pictures, especially from the inside, from the seller or the broker. All is not always what it is made out to be! IF the boat has been surveyed, you might be able to get your hands on the damage survey. That's just a starting point.

There have definitely been good deals, here. There are also people running around who will rue the day they ever thought of buyng and fixing up any number of boats. Particularly if they don't have the background to do it.

With regard to the comment about charter companies picking up all the good used boats, that is ill-informed. First of all, many companies only operate a particular brand or brands. Voyage Charters only run Voyages. Moorings only runs Leopards, Beneteaus, and Jeanneaus. Some companies run all types, and these will definitely be looking around for appropriate boats. Think Conch or BVI Yacht Charters. But, they don't own their boats, so they will either be contacting the owner, or perhaps trying to find a prospective owner to buy the boat, in either case trying to get the boat to enter their fleet. It's actually somewhat complicated!

Bottom line is that there are definitely "good" buys, but they are far from universal, and what makes a buy a good one has a lot to do with the time, money, skills, and commitment that the new buyer is prepared to devote to the project.

[Cadence]

Originally Posted by crankysailor

So I just came across a boat that was in Nanny Cay during Irma but came thru reportedly unharmed except for a couple of minor things (a solar panel and an anemometer)... I guess anything is possible even after seeing the pictures of the devastation etc... but "get it surveyed" aside (of course).. would there be anything that would be of concern?

The same boat was in an unrelated event also hit by lightning.. perhaps a non direct hit.. some things got fried like the VHF and SSB but word is everything else checks out. Would there be anything that might spring up later down the road for example? what should one check after such an occurrence? thx!

ps: I am seeing the lightning thing as a plus.. what are the odds for the same boat to get hit twice? [emoji16]

I'm not sure about the hit twice theory? Hipot shorts can be a hard thing to find in wiring bundles.

[uncle stinkybob]

[QUOTE=contrail;2595567]With regard to there being "thousands of boats that survived", in the BVI that is simply not the case. Our normal charter fleet total size is about 900 boats. Of these, about 40% belonged to Moorings/Sunsail, who have not been able to share their data, as yet, but who look to have been hit about the same as the others. Of the 60% of the fleet that has been tallied, about 60% of that number has been destroyed or declared a loss. If that number can be extrapolated to include Moorings/Sunsail, that means that about 360 vessels were spared. About 7 % were damaged so lightly as to be easily gotten ready for charters. This would include things like cosmetic damage or missing stanchions and pulpits, things like that. Actually untouched? Almost none. The rest are in widely varied states of repair.

The reference of thousands refers to survivors of Irma, not nanny cay survivors, or bvi survivors, but Irma. and also not to indicate the numbers which you don't have by the way, of two charter companys fleets. So I think thousands of irmas survivors may be very general, it's most likely closer to fact than your 7% of all boats affected from irma survived. strange extrapolation by the way, is that what those math guys call fuzz math?

[alansmith]

Bottom line is that there are definitely "good" buys, but they are far from universal, and what makes a buy a good one has a lot to do with the time, money, skills, and commitment that the new buyer is prepared to devote to the project.[/QUOTE]

Contrail, heh, I want to thank you for one of the most informative and balanced posts I've read in like... forever! How refreshing it is when someone takes the time to explain things in a calm and professional manner like u just did. Because of your post I have a much deeper understanding of the situation the charter fleets face. I understand the business model better. It helps me also to understand what the people face trying to find a bargain.

Your post was factual and not based in emotion. Although I'm sure it was gut shot emotions after the "wrecker" had just left. Man, I just love posts like this from professionals who tell it like it is. Good job, Contrail!

[contrail]

[QUOTE=uncle stinkybob;2595670]

Originally Posted by contrail

With regard to there being "thousands of boats that survived", in the BVI that is simply not the case. Our normal charter fleet total size is about 900 boats. Of these, about 40% belonged to Moorings/Sunsail, who have not been able to share their data, as yet, but who look to have been hit about the same as the others. Of the 60% of the fleet that has been tallied, about 60% of that number has been destroyed or declared a loss. If that number can be extrapolated to include Moorings/Sunsail, that means that about 360 vessels were spared. About 7 % were damaged so lightly as to be easily gotten ready for charters. This would include things like cosmetic damage or missing stanchions and pulpits, things like that. Actually untouched? Almost none. The rest are in widely varied states of repair.

The reference of thousands refers to survivors of Irma, not nanny cay survivors, or bvi survivors, but Irma. and also not to indicate the numbers which you don't have by the way, of two charter companys fleets. So I think thousands of irmas survivors may be very general, it's most likely closer to fact than your 7% of all boats affected from irma survived. strange extrapolation by the way, is that what those math guys call fuzz math?

I am sorry not to have made it more clear that I was talking about Irma survivors, specifically in the BVI, although I stated it, in the first sentence. The OP had asked about a boat that experienced Irma in Nanny Cay, which is on Tortola. The thread had carried on in that vein, and even your post talked about the "charter companies", snapping up good boats, by which I think it was reasonable to think you were talking about the BVI.

Since I am not fond of making generalities about things of which I have no knowledge, I didn't speculate about ALL Irma survivors, or even those in St. Maarten or the USVI or Puerto Rico, about which my knowledge may be no greater than yours. When I post, I usually do so on a narrow range of subjects on which I may have some direct knowledge of value. I did so, in this case, which I thought was clear to anyone who had carefully followed the thread. I was trying to clear up a few statements that, as they pertained to the BVI, were incorrect.

If you are curious where my numbers originated, I happen to have been one of two people who were asked by Government officials to tally the losses, as it was felt that previous tallies were way off, and something reliable was needed. Our numbers were based on detailed direct enquiries of almost every charter company in the BVI (of which there are way more than two, more like a dozen), with the exception of a couple that each have maybe a half dozen boats. We also talked with marinas and surveyors and boat management companies. It was relatively easy to get hard facts from the charter industry. Private boats, many with absentee owners and dispersed all over the Territory, were much more difficult, as I noted. I would not call our numbers for private boats more than an extremely educated estimate. But, for the charter boats, I was the person who did the math, and I can assure you it wasn't fuzzy. Addition, subtraction, division, and multiplication are actually fairly straightforward! 325 odd total losses, out of 540 odd boats is 60%.

If you re-read my post, you will see that the number of "survivors" was 40%, not 7%. The 7% were the lightly damaged ones, which we generously called undamaged. But 33 % others survived, my own included, in various states of repair or disrepair. We had hard results for 60% of the entire fleet. Moorings/Sunsail represent the other 40%. Some of their boat owners are still having boats surveyed, and they did not choose to furnish final numbers, probably because they really could not. However, having walked their docks, personally, and having talked to a number of key people, some of whom are friends, I see no reason to think that their numbers will be much different than anyone else's. If anything, some of their earlier, unofficial numbers were worse, but I think those were unduly pessimistic.

With regard to the truly undamaged boats, that number is very, very low. Many charter companies reported zero boats completely undamaged. In the early post Irma days, when people said things like 10% or 20% were undamaged, I simply asked where they were, because they simply weren't there. But those were estimates. The numbers I have submitted are not.

I do hope this gives you a better idea of the situation in the BVI. I have tried to lay it out as clearly as possible. As to other places, your extrapolations may well be more accurate than mine. Perhaps you can share.

[contrail]

As a postscript to the post I just wrote, BVI damage reports were way off in both directions. Early on, someone said 2000 boats were lost in the BVI. I am not sure if we even had 2000 boats, even counting the smallest motor vessels and console boats, but that number made its way into print. I saw it repeated a number of times.

At the other extreme, ECLAC, the UN body that relates to the Caribbean, estimated a total of 200 boats lost, including charter, private, and everything else. This was very obviously low, as were their numbers relating to buildings and other land structures.

Hence the desire for something more precise. In case anyone is wondering, none of these figures include inflatable dinghies and tenders, although they are, in fact, boats.

[alansmith]

Contrail, I'll tell u a fun story. After reading Uncle StinkyBobs post I was scratching where my hair used to grow. What was he reading versus what I had read? It was a complete disconnect.

We on CF appreciate front line people who are in the impacted area to give their insights, knowledge of impacted areas, and time to educate and inform. How a forum member can so badly misunderstand what was written....????....

So, I began to debate what he said versus what u said. I pretty much wrote a lot of what u wrote. In my iPhone it took me easily 20 minutes. Making sure I checked my math with boat numbers and percentages. In the middle of this my wife calls me. I lost everything. Bummer.

I hope forum members can appreciate professional front line people who contribute balanced and unbiased information to those of us who want to know the skinny. To make disparaging remarks at these contributors is not only unwarranted but really counter productive. When facts are clearly stated by a poster and then completely misunderstood is one thing. But to accuse someone of fuZZy math and strange extrapolations when he clearly states he is only speaking for BVI and the losses there. That he was hired by the gov't to access damages speaks volumes to me that he is respected for his job knowledge.

As a further note.... when we debate something on the forum can we leave out the anger or the need to demean another person? We have lost some very good people over the two years I have been here due to nasty comments and atracks in people's reputations. If it were me running this 'yar ship... u'd be keelhauled for sure.

[lifeofreilly57]

OK, things went in a completely different direction here, but that's OK, a lot of good information was shared. Getting back to the original question, yes, a lightning strike would concern me.
Anything bonded to the mast and electrical system can be damaged, sometimes that damage is not exactly obvious, it requires a much more in depth inspection.
The few insurance salvage boats I've seen that were hit by lightning had widely varying damage, one had some wire bundles fused, some obvious damage to the mast at several connection points in the rigging and fried electronics.
Another had about 100 "blisters" in the bottom paint on the hull, actually it appeared the hull had some moisture in the laminate prior to the hit, it just provided an easy ground to the path of least resistance, the ultimate damage was a badly blistered hull with a fair amount of compromise to the laminate layup. Not worth repairing.
If it were me, I'd inspect all the mast hardware and rigging connection points, bonding and grounding points, do a moisture test on the hull, and go over every electronic/electrical device on the boat. Hey, how about the starter and alternator?
Without being there, it's impossible to know what the severity of the hit was. I've seen boats that took hits and had little to no damage, and also seen boats totaled from it.
Get a surveyor with an extremely critical eye.