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Old 08-11-2012, 14:47   #46
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

original poster is merely fishing for marlin.

he doesnt yet realize it is NOT the boat but the SAILOR that is the blue water and makes the boat to be seaworthy---

catalina 27 has gone round the world. beneteau has been rtw, many have gone rtw--is because the sailor was able to do it. not because of the rating or construction of the boat.
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Old 08-11-2012, 16:36   #47
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

Perhaps the OP is just wondering what boat YOU would choose for BW travel if YOU had a choice.......and WHY you would choose that boat! I think its clear that good seamanship can make a difference to any trip!! What about if you gave an answer along the lines of............¨my Sailing experience is as follows¨ blah, blah,,,,,,,,,I would be happy with the Catalina because.......or I would not be happy....because..........I would prefer this boat because.............sure, a great sailor can do lots, but given a CHOICE he would have his specific type of boat he would prefer, its seems the OP is talking of 2 people sailing??
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Old 08-11-2012, 17:22   #48
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

I'm happy with my little "lifeboat with a stick" because it really is overbuilt like the proverbial brick sh-t house!

From what I've read, when they built these old Westerlys, since they didn't have computer analysis for structural strength, they just picked up the prototype with a crane and dropped it from several feet up.
If it survived the drop test, they made the production run. If it didn't, they overbuilt another one and drop tested it too, until they passed the test!

I like old school testing methods!

They made it for the North Sea, and since it is so small, in a roll-over or pitch pole, I don't have much room to fly around!

Maybe my 22' Nomad isn't a perfect long-term live aboard, but it's strong enough to survive just about anything!

I feel very confident with it.

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Old 08-11-2012, 17:24   #49
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Buy the boat. Sail it. See if you are afraid of it (you won't be). With any boat, including heavy boats, be smart with weather and just do the trip you want to do. In my opinion it is far more important that a boat is maintained well than who built it.
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Old 08-11-2012, 17:25   #50
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Lucas View Post
I think it is time to stop talking about boats surviving the perfect storm (didn't a Bene already do that). We all know that unless the boat gets holed it is going to out survive the carbon based units on it.

It's time to talk about boats being able to survive something more likely to happen - a whale landing on it! This is at least as likely to happen to a "seasoned sailor" as being caught out in these extinction storm events!
Don are you joining the club and avoiding my question? Real simple, what steps have you taken before hand with your boat to prepare for the possibility of being caught in a life death situation like this Freedom 40 crew.

If you can't answer that question I guess your answer to the OP is that any boat will do as long as you watch the weather. But we all know that is folly...

RT
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Old 08-11-2012, 17:42   #51
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

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Originally Posted by vtcapo View Post
It never ceases to amaze me how seasoned sailors ignore ALL the possibilities.
These academic arguments always seem to occur among internet sailors.

If people didn't ignore the miniscule possibilities, no one would ever leave their house. Let's get real here! If you think your boat can withstand all unusual or extraordinary conditions, do your family a favor and make sure your life insurance premiums are up to date; that is, if you actually sail offshore
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Old 08-11-2012, 17:43   #52
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

...he doesnt yet realize it is NOT the boat but the SAILOR that is the blue water and makes the boat to be seaworthy---

Getting closer. So clear something up for me. Are you saying the Experienced Sailor makes any boat seaworthy by his mere presents on board? Or with his knowledge he alters his boat to make it more seaworthy?

Hopefully you are referring to the later. If that is the case what have YOU done before hand to prepare YOUR boat in case you get caught out in a situation like the one which claimed all on board that Freedom 40?

RT
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Old 08-11-2012, 17:52   #53
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

I know there are many professional, expert, excellent sailors at the bottom of each of the earths oceans. We just don't hear much about them because they're not here to champion their story. Sometimes strong men and stout boats are overwhelmed by the sea no matter what.

IMHO you want a high quality well designed yacht with the best safety gear you can affort for cruising and crossing oceans. It increases your odds against having a life changing event.

If you think about it, getting into a major bind is a conditional probability game. Your probability of survival,

Ps = 1 - Pbs x Pbf x Pfw x Pnr

where

Pbs is the probabiltity of encountering a bad storm and high breaking seas while cruising,
Pbf is the probability of a boat failure given a bad storm,
Pfw is the probability of the boat filling with water give a failure, and
Pr is the probability of not surviving long enough to be rescued given the boat filled with water.

If the probability of any one of these events on the RHS is zero then your probability of survival is 100 percent. If I can lower the Pbf by purchasing a stouter better boat then my Ps increases. Better weather forcasting my Pbs can be reduced and Ps increases. An EPIRB forces the Pr down increasing my Ps.

Ask yourself, does crossing oceans in a low budget cruiser versus a Valiant for example change your probability of a catastrophic failure in a storm?

The bottom line is I want to work to drive all of the probabilities on the RHS as low as I can given my budget constraints and do it before I leave the dock.

Look at the current thread where one couple rolled their boat and then abandoned it for rescue when crossing from Tonga to New Zealand. I am sure there were times during the ordeal when they would have signed over everything they owned in order to be rescued.

Where was I going with all of this? Oh yea, when crossing oceans I want all good stuff, hull/boat, safety gear, communication, etc. just in case the weather doesn't follow the forecast and I end up in the sh&&t. At that time I want everything going for me.
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Old 08-11-2012, 18:18   #54
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

Quote:
Originally Posted by LakeSuperior View Post
I know there are many professional, expert, excellent sailors at the bottom of each of the earths oceans. We just don't hear much about them because they're not here to champion their story. Sometimes strong men and stout boats are overwhelmed by the sea no matter what.

IMHO you want a high quality well designed yacht with the best safety gear you can affort for cruising and crossing oceans. It increases your odds against having a life changing event.

If you think about it, getting into a major bind is a conditional probability game. Your probability of survival,

Ps = 1 - Pbs x Pbf x Pfw x Pnr

where

Pbs is the probabiltity of encountering a bad storm and high breaking seas while cruising,
Pbf is the probability of a boat failure given a bad storm,
Pfw is the probability of the boat filling with water give a failure, and
Pr is the probability of not surviving long enough to be rescued given the boat filled with water.

If the probability of any one of these events on the RHS is zero then your probability of survival is 100 percent. If I can lower the Pbf by purchasing a stouter better boat then my Ps increases. Better weather forcasting my Pbs can be reduced and Ps increases. An EPIRB forces the Pr down increasing my Ps.

Ask yourself, does crossing oceans in a low budget cruiser versus a Valiant for example change your probability of a catastrophic failure in a storm?



Look at the current thread where one couple rolled their boat and then abandoned it for rescue when crossing from Tonga to New Zealand. I am sure there were times during the ordeal when they would have signed over everything they owned in order to be rescued.

Where was I going with all of this? Oh yea, when crossing oceans I want all good stuff, hull/boat, safety gear, communication, etc. just in case the weather doesn't follow the forecast and I end up in the sh&&t. At that time I want everything going for me.
Having been a math teacher for 22 years I appreciate your analysis. And your statement that "The bottom line is I want to work to drive all of the probabilities on the RHS as low as I can given my budget constraints and do it before I leave the dock", should be a wake up call to those who think experience trumps preparation. They work hand and hand.

Finally someone with insight.

RT
PS "before I leave the dock" is key and what a "seasoned sailor would do.
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Old 08-11-2012, 19:25   #55
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

Internet here in Mexico sucks at the moment so haven't trawled through to see if anyone else posted this link... but here is my mate's blog who just single handed a Catalina 30 from Ecuador to French Poly and is now in Tonga. He's in his 20's and sailed down to Mexico last year from SD. I me him in La Paz. Boat has done him just fine (though I wouldn't have personally set off with my family in one).

Sail Panache | Strutting across the Pacific Ocean

Just my (or his?) 2 centavos.
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Old 09-11-2012, 07:05   #56
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

Quote:
Originally Posted by vtcapo View Post
Finally someone with insight.
Thanks for the kind words but I borrowed those concepts from a different discipline so I can't really take credit for them.
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Old 09-11-2012, 07:38   #57
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

Yep. I too think any boat will do. It is only up to the sailor, their attitude to 'safety', seaworthiness' and the level of stress and anxiety they are seeking or trying to avoid.

Having crossed oceans and having been knocked and bruised I will say our boat here is not safe enough and not seaworthy enough but given the voyages we take she is "marginally safe and seaworthy enough". Twisted? Yes.

Get the boat that matches your skills and your personality. Things can happen to anybody, anywhere, no boat gives a warranty of a safe voyage, much as some may be more safe than others, provided her skipper and crew know what they are doing.

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Old 09-11-2012, 07:47   #58
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

Quote:
Originally Posted by vtcapo View Post
Having been a math teacher for 22 years I appreciate your analysis. And your statement that "The bottom line is I want to work to drive all of the probabilities on the RHS as low as I can given my budget constraints and do it before I leave the dock", should be a wake up call to those who think experience trumps preparation. They work hand and hand.

Finally someone with insight.

RT
PS "before I leave the dock" is key and what a "seasoned sailor would do.
VT, No one in this thread ever, ever said or suggested in any way to not be prepared for ocean voyaging. Nor did anyone ever imply in any way that a well made boat was not a good thing nor recommend taking a piece of junk on an offshore cruise. The only point I ever tried to make is the world's strongest hull is not necessary to safely sail to the Bahamas or many other destinations.

Again, here is a easily understood analogy. You don't need a sledge hammer to drive in a carpet tack. A sledge hammer will certainly do the job, but so will a tack hammer, and the tack hammer will be more efficient and easier to use.

Since you relate to math I might suggest a slight modification to Lake Superiors formula. In addition to the factors for probability of storms, etc add 1/Sc where Sc is the skill of the captain.

I might add that using that formula, with even a modicum of attention to weather in sailing to the Bahamas and even all the way to the Antilles the factor Pbs will be extremely small, resulting in a value for Ps approaching 1, reducing the impact of Pbf. Doesn't mean to ignore Pbf but logic would dictate that over emphasis on that factor would yield minimal returns for the time and cost incurred.
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:30   #59
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

We experienced 4 fast moving lows on our route from Halifax to Ireland. With good weather forecasting we were able see these develop 3 to 4 days out and this foresight allowed us to sidestep each and stay in winds under 40 knots.

Good communications allowed us to manage our probability of boat failure given a bad storm encounter by moving to a less severe position in the storms. It is obvious that more moderate conditions eases the probability of a boat failure of some type.

A boat three days behind us was not in such a good position on one of these lows and ended up getting beat up for about 12 hours. I think a bent metal rail was the only issue for them fortunately.

It is clear that moving in the weather windows for shorter passages offers a great advantage.
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:41   #60
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Re: Bluewater Cruising Cabability

Quote:
Originally Posted by LakeSuperior View Post
We experienced 4 fast moving lows on our route from Halifax to Ireland. With good weather forecasting we were able see these develop 3 to 4 days out and this foresight allowed us to sidestep each and stay in winds under 40 knots.

Good communications allowed us to manage our probability of boat failure given a bad storm encounter by moving to a less severe position in the storms. It is obvious that more moderate conditions eases the probability of a boat failure of some type.

A boat three days behind us was not in such a good position on one of these lows and ended up getting beat up for about 12 hours. I think a bent metal rail was the only issue for them fortunately.

It is clear that moving in the weather windows for shorter passages offers a great advantage.
In this case the sailing you are doing is much more advanced than what most cruisers are doing and entails a good deal more risk that trade winds sailing. Once you reach 40-50 degrees north the weather systems move a lot faster, your windows are a lot smaller and even in the summer season you can run into some very nasty gales.

At this level I think Pbs is much higher requiring much greater attention to minimizing Pbf and Pfw. Due to the much lower water temp Pnr can be critical.
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