Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Ha … silly me.

I just dropping into this thread to learn something about doing the Northwest Passage. Despite my generally cautious attitude toward cruising, it is now a remote possibility in my future.

Sad to see this thread has become yet another pissing match between people who believe in science and those who don’t.

Carry on...

That's what I did.. then could not resist 'The Straw Man'..
Still looking in just in case things go 'On Topic'

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by boatman61

That's what I did.. then could not resist 'The Straw Man'..
Still looking in just in case things go 'On Topic'

hey, I'm for that too. But someone tossed a fuzzy mouse and I ran after it [cat metaphor because we're breaking in a new cat. One of the few pluses of living ashore]

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

doesn't need to be a science site to post relevant data and links to relevant scientific papers.

I prefer to to read the relevant scientific papers in their entirety, not some contextomized version.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

new data suggests that the 16 year old data may be incorrect.
This study couldn't have been done 16 years ago.
https://phys.org/news/2017-12-sun-re...tness.html#jCp
remember science is constantly evolving.

I live on Earth, you may live up Uranus

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

I live on Earth, you may live up Uranus

jack be nice
Study of climate on Uranus gives new insight into the climate on this planet.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

I am not anti or pro agw I literally will feel no long term effects. I don't expect to live much over 40 more years. And I have no living children . Personally my life has no effect on the climate. My power is primarily from solar and wind with occasional dyno juice ( diesel mains.) and I am soon to install diesel forced air furnace. ( I do these things for pure financial reasons)
I have actually read many of the actual scientific papers.
Yes jack has posted links to many many papers supporting his view however as I said nowadays while valid ( for the most part) lots of the views have been shown to be lacking due to information that was not available to the scientific community at the time they were written. I am wanting some newer datasets supporting the assertion that the sun ( which provides all of our energy ) and changes in solar output has little effect on the planetary climate.

New enough

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Sarah Ineson, Amanda C. Maycock, Lesley J. Gray, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone, Jerald W. Harder, Jeff R. Knight, Mike Lockwood, James C. Manners & Richard A. Wood

Nature Communications 6, Article number: 7535 (2015)
doi:10.1038/ncomms8535
Download Citation
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impactsSolar physics
Received:
23 May 2014
Accepted:
14 May 2015
Published online:
23 June 2015

Abstract

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Here is a meta-analysis from the solar scientists at the Stanford Solar Center

During the initial discovery period of global climate change, the magnitude of the influence of the Sun on Earth's climate was not well understood. Since the early 1990s, however, extensive research was put into determining what role, if any, the Sun has in global warming or climate change.

A recent review paper, put together by both solar and climate scientists, details these studies: Solar Influences on Climate. Their bottom line: though the Sun may play some small role, "it is nevertheless much smaller than the estimated radiative forcing due to anthropogenic changes." That is, human activities are the primary factor in global climate change.

http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun...09RG000282.pdf

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

jack be nice
Study of climate on Uranus gives new insight into the climate on this planet.

How? Do tell.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

How? Do tell.

you said you read the article so you should have an understanding as to the scope of the study concerning cosmic rays and the formation of clouds. Which increase the albedo effect causing cooling in the LTUS . Which would be an indirect result of lower solar output from Sol.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

you said you read the article so you should have an understanding as to the scope of the study concerning cosmic rays and the formation of clouds. Which increase the albedo effect causing cooling in the LTUS . Which would be an indirect result of lower solar output from Sol.

The CLOUD experiment at CERN has already discounted the role of cosmic rays in cloud formation on Earth.

The results also show that ionisation of the atmosphere by cosmic rays accounts for nearly one-third of all particles formed, although small changes in cosmic rays over the solar cycle do not affect aerosols enough to influence today’s polluted climate significantly.

https://home.cern/about/updates/2016...te-predictions

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

The CLOUD experiment at CERN has already discounted the role of cosmic rays in cloud formation on Earth.



https://home.cern/about/updates/2016...te-predictions

thank you I will take a couple days to read all of the data.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

thank you I will take a couple days to read all of the data.

Check here:

https://home.cern/about/experiments/cloud

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Check here:

https://home.cern/about/experiments/cloud

already downloaded for offline read.

[jackdale]

It seems that the NWP transits by pleasure craft will become difficult

Because of the irresponsible behaviour of a sailor who transited the Northwest Passage in 2017 on a small racing catamaran entirely unsuited for Arctic conditions, the Canadian Government plans to impose drastic measures for anyone planning to transit this challenging waterway in future.

Among the new regulations, there will be compulsory registration of any vessel planning a transit, a thorough technical and safety survey, and specific insurance requirements.

https://cornellsailing.com/2017/11/n...em-to-be-over/

I will attempt to found out more details.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by jackdale

It seems that the NWP transits by pleasure craft will become difficult



https://cornellsailing.com/2017/11/n...em-to-be-over/

I will attempt to found out more details.

Yet another example of people leaving a "dirty wake' and screwing things up for everyone else?

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by StuM

Yet another example of people leaving a "dirty wake' and screwing things up for everyone else?

bingo!
that's the problem with allowing people to just go into such a fragile ecosystem.