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Old 27-12-2017, 18:27   #16
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
actually it does state the date of the article and it is less than 18 hours old
ByJeff ParsonsTech/Science Reporter
12:28, 27 DEC 2017UPDATED12:29, 27 DEC 2017
Here is a link to the paper referenced
https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/ar...2/2.17/3074082
Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 58, Issue 2, 1 April 2017, Pages 2.17–2.23,
Thank you newhaul. I've made a correction to my previous post.
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Old 27-12-2017, 18:43   #17
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
actually it does state the date of the article and it is less than 18 hours old
ByJeff ParsonsTech/Science Reporter
12:28, 27 DEC 2017UPDATED12:29, 27 DEC 2017
Here is a link to the paper referenced
https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/ar...2/2.17/3074082
Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 58, Issue 2, 1 April 2017, Pages 2.17–2.23,
The article to which you linked is

Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age
Mike Lockwood Mat Owens Ed Hawkins Gareth S Jones Ilya Usoskin

It is not by Valentina Zharkova


Read it. It does not support the article's headline.



Quote:
Where spin doctors, politicians and newspaper editors understand well that a name alters how something is perceived, scientists know that a name does not change the reality one iota. By virtue of the name awarded to it, the “Little Ice Age” has been associated with full ice ages. The name Little Ice Age has also become almost synonymous with the Maunder minimum in solar activity in the minds of many people. Hence it has even become possible to build semantic arguments that imply there is some sort of link between solar activity and ice ages – and evidence for major control of climate by solar activity is often offered in the form of the occurrence of frost fairs on the Thames in London (figure 1). This paper discusses the true relationships, or lack of them, between these different events.
Quote:
The association of the solar Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age is also not supported by proper inspection and ignores the role of other factors such as volcanoes.
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Old 27-12-2017, 19:00   #18
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
The article to which you linked is

Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age
Mike Lockwood Mat Owens Ed Hawkins Gareth S Jones Ilya Usoskin

It is not by Valentina Zharkova


Read it. It does not support the article's headline.
read the entire paper not just the intro paragraph jack .
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Old 27-12-2017, 19:04   #19
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
read the entire paper not just the intro paragraph jack .
I did.

The second quote is from the second last paragraph.
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Old 27-12-2017, 19:06   #20
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Jack the reference to Dr zharkova is in the primary article I linked to the one you seem to want to pick apart is just a reference for the works done.
Here is a quote from the first paper.

Valentina Zharkova, a maths professor at Northumbria University built on previous work done in Moscow to make the predictions.

Although she says that the mathematical prediction can't be used as total proof, she does suggest a 97% accuracy level for her model which lines up with previous ice ages, including the Maunder Minimum period from 1645 to 1715, when Londoners first skated across the Thames.


You really should read all the datum presented prior to making an incorrect post.

But then again all together it doesn't fit with the MMGWC meme.
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Old 27-12-2017, 19:11   #21
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Here is the original paper.

http://computing.unn.ac.uk/staff/slm...al_jastp17.pdf

This is published version.

On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles - ScienceDirect

Here is a critique of that paper:

Quote:
Comment on the paper by Popova et al. “On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles”
Ilya G.Usoskin

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.09.018


Highlights

The method of solar activity prediction by Popova et al. contains fundamental flaws.


It is unreliable from the point of view of signal processing and lacks quality control.


The post-diction result contradicts the observational data.


The results of prediction cannot be trusted.


Abstract
The paper by Popova et al. presents an oversimplified mathematical model of solar activity with a claim of predicting/postdicting it for several millennia ahead/backwards. The work contains several flaws devaluating the results: (1) the method is unreliable from the point of view of signal processing (it is impossible to make harmonic predictions for thousands of years based on only 35 years of data) and lacks quality control; (2) the result of post-diction apparently contradicts the observational data. (3) theoretical speculations make little sense. To summarize, a multi-harmonic mathematical model, hardly related to full solar dynamo theory, is presented, which is not applicable to realistic solar conditions because of the significant chaotic/stochastic intrinsic component and strong non-stationarity of solar activity. The obtained result is apparently inconsistent with the data in the past and thus cannot be trusted for the future predictions.
Comment on the paper by Popova etÂ*al. “On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles” - ScienceDirect
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Old 27-12-2017, 19:13   #22
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

The article to which you linked is based on another report:


Quote:
Professor Zharkova claims 97% accuracy for the model which dovetails with previous mini ice ages, including the Maunder Minimum period from 1645 to 1715 when frost fairs were held on the frozen Thames.

But she cautions that her mathematical research cannot be used as proof that there will be a mini ice age this time around, not least because of global warming.
https://news.sky.com/story/scientist...-2030-11186098
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Old 28-12-2017, 09:50   #23
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Here are a few interesting reads.
https://principia-scientific.org/sci...global-cooling
https://principia-scientific.org/dro...lobal-cooling/
https://principia-scientific.org/mod...ooling-coming/
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Old 28-12-2017, 10:39   #24
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Using PSI as an authority is laughable.

So much credibility does PSI and the Sky Dragon Slayers have amongst the skeptical community?

Lord Monckton thinks its founder John O'Sullivan is scientifically illiterate.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Spencer, Curry and Watts dismiss them as cranks.

Time for the Slayers to Put Up or Shut Up
May 10th, 2013 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
I have allowed the Sky Dragon Slayers to post hundreds of comments here containing their views of how the climate system works (or maybe I should say how they think it doesn’t work).
As far as I can tell, their central non-traditional view seems to be that the atmosphere does not have so-called “greenhouse gases” that emit thermal infrared radiation downward. A variation on this theme is that even if those gases exist, they emit energy at the same rate they absorb, and so have no net effect on temperature.
I have repeatedly addressed these views and why they are false.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Judith Curry
JC comment. Grant was unaware of the previous skydragon threads at Climate Etc. The skydragons continue to expect me to debate them, their preferred forum is a radio debate. While I will never shut the door on skeptical challenges to the science and encourage contributions from those from different areas of expertise, this group beggars belief. I will continue to (barely) follow Claes Johnson’s work to see if he is able to come with anything interesting or publishable. IMO, this group has damaged the credibility of skepticism about climate change and provides a convenient target when people want to refer to “deniers” and crackpots.
Curry also published a two part discussion of their theories.

++++++++++++++++++++++++

A misinterpreted claim about a NASA press release, CO2, solar flares, and the thermosphere is making the rounds
Anthony Watts / March 28, 2013
I loathe having to write this story because I truly dislike giving any attention to the people who are known as the “slayers” from the “Slaying the Sky Dragon” book. They now operate under the moniker of “Principia Scientific”.
But, somebody has to do it because some really bad mangling of the intent of a NASA press release by the “slayers” group is getting some traction. They have completely misread the NASA study and reinterpreted it for their purpose, claiming in a story titled “New Discovery: NASA Study Proves Carbon Dioxide Cools Atmosphere”
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Old 28-12-2017, 11:11   #25
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

I find little reason to use CF as a platform on a debate about climate change, a harsh topic.

Yet, let me say:
Those who advocate for global warming might be right. For sure, they did grant themselves a solid economic, Political and mass-opinionated support.

They may be right, but maritime and aviation trade came almost unscathed, as too big to change industries...and we keep burning fossil fuel by necessity.

Sorry, I didn't want to comment, but take these 2c or toss them away :-) ....
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Old 28-12-2017, 11:16   #26
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheThunderbird View Post
I find little reason to use CF as a platform on a debate about climate change, a harsh topic.

Yet, let me say:
Those who advocate for global warming might be right. For sure, they did grant themselves a solid economic, Political and mass-opinionated support.

They may be right, but maritime and aviation trade came almost unscathed, as too big to change industries...and we keep burning fossil fuel by necessity.

Sorry, I didn't want to comment, but take these 2c or toss them away :-) ....
t bird thank you for your post and you hit the nail on the head as far as alternative energy. Many things depend on fossil fuel. ( which by the way are just stored solar energy) .
( hope the tesla semi actually does what they claim it will. )
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Old 28-12-2017, 11:20   #27
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Using PSI as an authority is laughable.

So much credibility does PSI and the Sky Dragon Slayers have amongst the skeptical community?

Lord Monckton thinks its founder John O'Sullivan is scientifically illiterate.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Spencer, Curry and Watts dismiss them as cranks.

Time for the Slayers to Put Up or Shut Up
May 10th, 2013 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
I have allowed the Sky Dragon Slayers to post hundreds of comments here containing their views of how the climate system works (or maybe I should say how they think it doesn’t work).
As far as I can tell, their central non-traditional view seems to be that the atmosphere does not have so-called “greenhouse gases” that emit thermal infrared radiation downward. A variation on this theme is that even if those gases exist, they emit energy at the same rate they absorb, and so have no net effect on temperature.
I have repeatedly addressed these views and why they are false.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Judith Curry
JC comment. Grant was unaware of the previous skydragon threads at Climate Etc. The skydragons continue to expect me to debate them, their preferred forum is a radio debate. While I will never shut the door on skeptical challenges to the science and encourage contributions from those from different areas of expertise, this group beggars belief. I will continue to (barely) follow Claes Johnson’s work to see if he is able to come with anything interesting or publishable. IMO, this group has damaged the credibility of skepticism about climate change and provides a convenient target when people want to refer to “deniers” and crackpots.
Curry also published a two part discussion of their theories.

++++++++++++++++++++++++

A misinterpreted claim about a NASA press release, CO2, solar flares, and the thermosphere is making the rounds
Anthony Watts / March 28, 2013
I loathe having to write this story because I truly dislike giving any attention to the people who are known as the “slayers” from the “Slaying the Sky Dragon” book. They now operate under the moniker of “Principia Scientific”.
But, somebody has to do it because some really bad mangling of the intent of a NASA press release by the “slayers” group is getting some traction. They have completely misread the NASA study and reinterpreted it for their purpose, claiming in a story titled “New Discovery: NASA Study Proves Carbon Dioxide Cools Atmosphere”
here is a quote from the last link to show you.
Is zharkova a crack pot?

Zharkova Et Al., 2015 “The Longest Direct Ervation Of Solar Activity Is The 400-Year Sunspot-Number Series, Which Depicts A Dramatic Contrast Between The Almost Spotless Maunder And Dalton Minima, And The Period Of Very High Activity In The Most Recent 5 Cycles [1950s – 2000s], Prior To Cycle 24. … The Records Show That Solar Activity In The Current Cycle 24 Is Much Lower Than In The Previous Three Cycles 21–23 Revealing More Than A Two-Year Minimum Period Between Cycles 23 And 24. This Reduced Activity In Cycle 24 Was Very Surprising Because The Previous Five Cycles Were Extremely Active And Sunspot Productive Forming The Modern Maximum
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Old 28-12-2017, 13:08   #28
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
here is a quote from the last link to show you.
Is zharkova a crack pot?

Zharkova Et Al., 2015 “The Longest Direct Ervation Of Solar Activity Is The 400-Year Sunspot-Number Series, Which Depicts A Dramatic Contrast Between The Almost Spotless Maunder And Dalton Minima, And The Period Of Very High Activity In The Most Recent 5 Cycles [1950s – 2000s], Prior To Cycle 24. … The Records Show That Solar Activity In The Current Cycle 24 Is Much Lower Than In The Previous Three Cycles 21–23 Revealing More Than A Two-Year Minimum Period Between Cycles 23 And 24. This Reduced Activity In Cycle 24 Was Very Surprising Because The Previous Five Cycles Were Extremely Active And Sunspot Productive Forming The Modern Maximum
No, I do not have any evidence that she is a crackpot. The last link is from notrickszone which has long documented history of misrepresenting scientific research, including hers.

https://www.snopes.com/400-papers-pu...rming-is-myth/

http://redgreenandblue.org/2017/11/0...ally-surprise/

"Kenneth Richard" is the pseudonym of Rick Cina who is a children's entertainer. He is not any type of scientist, let alone a climate scientist.
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Old 28-12-2017, 13:22   #29
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

Ok jack I concede that there are many points of view here.
I just linked to the original article as stated it provided interesting reading and provoked thought . That's all didn't think it would start a war .
Happy new year to you and yours hope all is well and recovered from the fires last summer.
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Old 28-12-2017, 14:17   #30
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Re: Time for Northwest - Passage 2018

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Ok jack I concede that there are many points of view here.
I just linked to the original article as stated it provided interesting reading and provoked thought . That's all didn't think it would start a war .
Happy new year to you and yours hope all is well and recovered from the fires last summer.
I wish you and your family well this next year.
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