Passage planning Artic adventures

[hpeer]

You are quite right that climate change should not influence you next year planning.

However the long term trends are clear, and if you are involved in long term planning, then it is something to be considered.

At least the USCG seems to think so.

With Sea Ice Melting, Coast Guard Proposing New Shipping Lanes To The Arctic « CBS Seattle

WASHINGTON (AP) — With global warming leading to increased traffic to a vulnerable Arctic, the U.S. Coast Guard is proposing a 4.6-mile wide shipping route through the Bering Strait to try to protect the region.

[rognvald]

Here's an excellent video detailing the melting Arctic ice, increased commercial traffic and NOAA'S attempt to chart areas that were previously covered with ice. Challenges for sailors, businesses when Arctic ice melts - YouTube

[highseas]

Due to massive potential/ongoing methane release in the arctic,grand plans are being schemed to cool the arctic as fast as possible,possibly with salt brine.The Arctic Methane Emergency Group is sounding the alarm.Recent data shows things to be much more dire than models predict.Check out the latest UN climate meeting held in Lima.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by highseas

Due to massive potential/ongoing methane release in the arctic,grand plans are being schemed to cool the arctic as fast as possible,possibly with salt brine.The Arctic Methane Emergency Group is sounding the alarm.Recent data shows things to be much more dire than models predict.Check out the latest UN climate meeting held in Lima.

I've been following this for a few years. I hear arguments for and against. There seems no clear consensus.

Yet the prospect of even a slim opportunity for this to happen, which seems to be acceptable by many if not most, is so horriffic to consider that you must wonder what the heck we are thinking by not pulling out all stops.

I have come to the conclusion, after far too many disagreeable discussions, that a portion of the public is simply incapable of holding the idea of self extinction in their head. Just can't do it.

I did an informal poll of sorts. It seems the folks that can hold an accurate mental picture of the consequences of climate change and over population (not even discussing the methane bomb) have all been under 20 when they first realized Earth was in trouble. If you haven't "got it" by then the chances of coming to understand it later in life are about nil.

[malaka11]

Surely if the facts change you change your mind? That's what being a sceptic entails. Being dogmatic however means your worldview is fixed in stone. Definitely in different parts of the world the climate has changed within my lifetime of 47 years. Here in SW Australia rainfall has declined noticeably since 1975. Seems the same kind of noticeable change in conditions is happening at the poles as well.




Sent from my iPhone using Cruisers Sailing Forum

[Dauntlessny]

Originally Posted by StuM

Since 4:00 am, the linear trend in temperature has seen a rapid increase. In another few days we are all going to die.

Here in the Southern Hemisphere, the linear trend since July has seen a rapid increase. In another few months we are all going to die.





Climate trends are NOT linear over any reasonably long period and using them to extrapolate future conditions is completely unjustifiable.

I don't get what you're trying to say, since the graph you posted shows the opposite of your point.

The key point is that while there is less ice on average, there is still a lot of ice.

Richard on Dauntless now in Ireland
Kadey Krogen 42'

[bosun1967]

I am actually very. Interested in this thread. Spending several years sailing the arctic myself. Please keep it going. Know matter what topic someone with negative responces will give there 2 cents worth. Please keep the thread going.


Bosun

[hpeer]

Then you might like this.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycom...st_anim30d.gif

[hpeer]

I don't know enough to be sure, and maybe someone here can correct me, but I don't think it is normal to have that kind of flow through the Nares Strait, especially this time of year.

[hpeer]

Interesting blog on Nares Strait

http://icyseas.org

[captain58sailin]

Can't speak for farther north, but we are having the mildest winter in the last 40 years, in Homer. However 2 years ago we saw record snowfalls. Right now our temperatures run from the 20s F at night to 30s~40s F during the day. I recognize that 40 years is a tiny amount of time in the geologic perspective, just throwing my bit in for perspective.

[rognvald]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Then you might like this.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycom...st_anim30d.gif

Very interesting chart!

[GG2015]

Having read the entire thread up to today, it demonstrates selective opinions on various subject none the less is about what was to much for a custom boat owner which did not stop other yachts with better preparations and definitely better skills to succeed in their Northwest Passage... why? Because they asked the right questions from mariners who had gone before them... rather than showing up weeks early in a new boat on its maiden voyage and depleting resources after becoming stuck in the ice by entering a high ice concentration on a cruising lark to get supplies... the obvious happened - beset in ice... all of his world acclaim didn't make a difference then - mother nature's rules dictate and you must obey else pay her price. So after such a frightful event with his family aboard I'm sure he had extreme nightmares... he made the decision to retreat - a good choice - he did not have the 'right stuff' to continue while other yachts did... Why? Because they had experienced shore support advise - routing recommendations of when to go and where to be to optimize their success... the Arctic is not a media blitz 'no ice' tropical Odyssey. What will the conditions be for a 2015 NW Passage? Much like the same of 2014 - drifting young ice flows greatly influenced by weather and currents. If you are seriously considering a NW Passage - be sure to secure experienced support advisers... you will need Iridium or Inmarsat and Delorme backup satcom communications - don't leave port without them.

See you outdoors... on the water!

[hpeer]

Thought you guys might like this site

Northwest Passage 2015 : Crew Looking for 2015 Northwest Passage Boat and a 55 foot Motor Vessel Yacht Looking for 2015 Expedition Partners

[GG2015]

Yes indeed... not many people posting comments nor looking for a Northwest Passage Expedition adventure... I think the economy plays a big part in people's dwindling cash flow... ?