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Old 02-02-2018, 09:43   #1
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Northwest Passage - 2018

2017 Yachtsmen Routing Guide to Northwest Passage for safe/unsafe anchorage/shelter, 4th Edition

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"In those Northwest voyages where navigation must be executed in most Exquisite Sort" (John Davis, 1594)

This Yacht Routing Guide to the Northwest Passage, by Victor Wejer, is a compilation of further port and anchorage information which will be updated annually. The RCC Pilotage Foundation is very pleased to be able to make this guide available to you via a download from the RCCPF website. However, the RCCPF has had no part in the production of this guide and accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained within.

CAUTION
This guide contains selected information and thus is not definitive. It does not contain all known information on the subject in hand and should not be relied on alone for navigational use; it should only be used in conjunction with official hydrographical data. This is particularly relevant to the plans, which should not be used for navigation. The information provided in this guide may be out of date and may be changed or updated without notice. The RCC Pilotage Foundation cannot accept any liability for any error, omission or failure to update such information. To the extent permitted by law, the RCC Pilotage Foundation does not accept liability for any loss and/or damage.
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Old 03-02-2018, 12:06   #2
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Extremely Warm Cyclone Predicted to Drive 50-60 F Above Average Temperatures Across North Pole | Robert Scribbler

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Our lexicon of what’s considered to be normal weather does not include February days in which temperatures at a North Pole, shrouded in 24-hour darkness, cross into above freezing ranges. But that’s exactly what some of our more accurate weather models are predicting will happen over the next five days...

These warm winds are predicted to bring above freezing temperatures to areas that typically see -20 to -30 F readings in February. They are expected to rage over a sea ice pack that is at record low levels. And if the storm emerges, it will hammer that same dwindling ice pack with 20 to 25 foot or higher surf...

Arctic sea ice extent is presently at around 13 million square kilometers [bottom red line] — a new record low for this time of year. It should be around 15 million square kilometers and would be if the world hadn’t warmed considerably since the 1980s. Image source: JAXA.

https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/...tion_hires.png
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Old 03-02-2018, 13:17   #3
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

sorry but it looks to me to be still below 0°f
https://www.weather-forecast.com/map...one&type=lapse
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Old 03-02-2018, 13:20   #4
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

looks to me more like 14m sq^2
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Old 03-02-2018, 13:22   #5
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Area means little without volume context
DMI Modelled ice thickness
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Old 03-02-2018, 15:04   #6
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Sorry, but I can't resist this one. I promise I'll go back to lurking after this and won't get involved here again

>It should be around 15 million square kilometers

Why should it?Who has defined the perfect February Sea Ice Extent? On what basis?
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Old 03-02-2018, 16:13   #7
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
Sorry, but I can't resist this one. I promise I'll go back to lurking after this and won't get involved here again

>It should be around 15 million square kilometers

Why should it?Who has defined the perfect February Sea Ice Extent? On what basis?
kinda my point in posting the volume .
The winds have been blowing the ice towards the pole from both pacific and Atlantic side for most of Dec and January which would hinder area growth while actually helping the volume to grow more.
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Old 03-02-2018, 16:15   #8
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
Sorry, but I can't resist this one. I promise I'll go back to lurking after this and won't get involved here again

>It should be around 15 million square kilometers

Why should it?Who has defined the perfect February Sea Ice Extent? On what basis?
bet the "who " is either Al Gore or Michael Mann. Both of which predicted an ice free arctic summer by about 5 years ago.
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Old 03-02-2018, 18:46   #9
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Area means little without volume context
DMI Modelled ice thickness
Extent, as well as volume, are both useful metrics. Thanks for posting the volume chart.
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Old 03-02-2018, 19:12   #10
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
Sorry, but I can't resist this one. I promise I'll go back to lurking after this and won't get involved here again

>It should be around 15 million square kilometers

Why should it?Who has defined the perfect February Sea Ice Extent? On what basis?
"Perfect"???

"Should"???

Those are your words, not the author's.

As a WAG I'll guess that the author of the article used the 1981-2010 median value for this time of year as what the ice extant "would be if the world hadn’t warmed considerably since the 1980s."

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Old 03-02-2018, 19:28   #11
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Extent, as well as volume, are both useful metrics. Thanks for posting the volume chart.
I have a prediction for you .
I predict that the extent in the bearing sea will basically explode in growing size over the next 5 to 10 days due to a changing weather pattern of winds blowing from NNW to SSE in the bearing sea region.
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Old 03-02-2018, 20:30   #12
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
"Perfect"???

"Should"???

Those are your words, not the author's.

As a WAG I'll guess that the author of the article used the 1981-2010 median value for this time of year as what the ice extant "would be if the world hadn’t warmed considerably since the 1980s."
"Should" is a direct quote from the article and from the quote you posted.
He didn't say "would be". That's completely different to "should be"

"I admit to using the word "perfect", but surely that is implied by the original "should".

Why would anyone say that the 1981-2010 median is what ice estent should be? (Unless they've swallowed the "hockey stick Koolaid").
Maybe it "should" be what it was during the Holocene Climate Optimum or Medieval Warm Period.
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Old 04-02-2018, 04:33   #13
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post
...
>It should be around 15 million square kilometers

Why should it?Who has defined the perfect February Sea Ice Extent? On what basis?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
"Perfect"???

"Should"???

Those are your words, not the author's....
It appears neither of us can read. Scribbler, in fact, used both the words "would" and "should".

Quote:
It should be around 15 million square kilometers and would be if the world hadn’t warmed considerably since the 1980s..
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post
"Should" is a direct quote from the article and from the quote you posted.
He didn't say "would be". That's completely different to "should be"

"I admit to using the word "perfect", but surely that is implied by the original "should".

Why would anyone say that the 1981-2010 median is what ice estent should be? (Unless they've swallowed the "hockey stick Koolaid").
Maybe it "should" be what it was during the Holocene Climate Optimum or Medieval Warm Period.
No, I don't agree that "'perfect'... is implied by the original 'should'."

Quote:
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... I promise I'll go back to lurking after this and won't get involved here again ...
Given the nature of your contributions to this thread, I'll be happy to take you up on your offer.
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Old 04-02-2018, 05:11   #14
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

China Issues Its Arctic Policy | The Diplomat
Quote:
On January 26, China for the first time issued a white paper on its Arctic Policy, vowing to actively participating in Arctic affairs as a “near-Arctic State” and a major stakeholder in the Arctic. (The English full text can be found here.)...

Specifically, China will mainly focus its attention on four aspects.

First, China will participate in the development of Arctic shipping routes which are composed of the Northeast Passage, Northwest Passage, and the Central Passage....

Second, China aims to participate “in the exploration for and exploitation of oil, gas, mineral and other non-living resources” in the Arctic....

Third, China will start to utilize fisheries and other living resources and participate in conservation....

Fourth, China will develop Arctic tourism....
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Old 04-02-2018, 06:04   #15
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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that really bothers me with respect to the fact that China doesn't actually have any part of its country bordering the arctic. No wonder the Russians have actual military armed vessels that are icebreakers and the US is planning on the ability of arming its icebreakers with anti missile defensive weapon systems as well as anti ship missile launcher capability.
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