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Old 17-05-2018, 04:37   #1156
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by conachair View Post
If it's science you're interested in then in the likes of science daily & Nature etc there are always links to the actual papers, sometimes behind paywalls but often enough of a summary to hopefully get the gist of the paper.
- is there any "contrarian" science for the overall view that the planet is warming quickly beyond what has been "business as usual" & greenhouse gasses fit the bill as a significant factor?

If I was the more "sensitive" type, I might just think you've had my posts on "Ignore." Probably the best way to find this stuff is to google Drs. Roy Spencer and/or John Christy. They're the ones who developed and continue to record the temperature data from NASA satellites, and that data has been consistently recording lower avg. temps over the past, almost 40 years since the program began. They believe that AGW is real and is likely having an impact, but believe the sat data is more reliable than the land/sea based data, and is more consistent with warming based on natural vs. man-made forces. You'll not only find the graph, but also interviews with both of them that explain their positions. And that same google search will also likely yield all sorts of critique from websites like skeptical science.com & desmogblog.com. So it'll be one stop shopping!

So the media can't be trusted.... no great surprise there

It's gotten exceptionally bad in recent years it seems, but one always has to remember that their primary interest is in selling copy (or ratings)! For better or worse, nothing sells better than CC, especially the doomsday stuff, whether it be about polar bears (now thriving) or penguins (thriving or not??).

Any links to published papers?

No, I'm not an expert nor do I play one on the internet. You'd again want to google the issue, perhaps using Dr. Judith Curry as one of the search terms.

Tending more towards philosophy/anthropology? And it AFAICS a very likely outcome, not through any kind of political viewpoints but more a lack of evidence that the big brained apes called homo sapiens are actually in any way capable of any kind of large scale/long term conscious control over the way the species as whole behaves & goes forward. Seems little different to bacteria in a petri dish or a few rabbits let loose in Australia. Our brains just didn't evolve to worry about years into the future, look after the tribe today programmed deep into the subconscious has been exceptionally successful over the past couple of hundred thousand years. Maybe not now though.......
All quite true imho and, as I said earlier, humans will either adapt or go extinct like every other species who has become too successful. It just seems like that's the way it's always worked so we would be no different. But it doesn't seem to me that it'll be CC that'll do us in. The climate has always been changing and man has always managed to adapt, albeit not without casualties.
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Old 17-05-2018, 05:42   #1157
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
-Roy Spence.....
Well aware og his work, this is a plot I created a while ago of (from memory) his satellite data -


Not a huge amount going on with published work showing it's down to natural variation though >
https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar...encer+climate+

One link jumps out >


Quote:
[BOOK] The great global warming blunder: how mother nature fooled the world's top climate scientists
RW Spencer - 2012 - books.google.com
The Great Global Warming Blunder unveils new evidence from major scientific findings that
explode the conventional wisdom on climate change and reshape the global warming
debate as we know it
Does this really bode to be a balanced scientific discussion on the subject? Yeah, righto...

Curry I used to have on RSS, least she seems to know what she's on about and have a bit of a desire to dig deep. The invariable biased comments hinted at her target audience ..

So back from a couple of outliers to the other vast ocean of published work pointing to human involvement...

Another question raises it head high with all this - if greenhouse gasses aren't involved then why not? The same quantum physics that makes everything in the world today work predicts greenhouse gasses slow the heat loss, if that isn't happening then why not?
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Old 17-05-2018, 06:06   #1158
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
here is a source for the maunder reconstruction
https://www.semanticscholar.org/pape...d2d4b4a3157d42
Thank you
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Old 17-05-2018, 06:17   #1159
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Reveals Major Shifts in Global Freshwater | Space Coast Daily

In a first-of-its-kind study, scientists have combined an array of NASA satellite observations of Earth with data on human activities to map locations where freshwater is changing around the globe and to determine why. The study, published in the journal Nature, finds that Earth’s wetland areas are getting wetter and dry areas are getting drier due to a variety of factors, including human water management, climate change and natural cycles...

“This is the first time that we’ve used observations from multiple satellites in a thorough assessment of how freshwater availability is changing, everywhere on Earth,” said Rodell. “A key goal was to distinguish shifts in terrestrial water storage caused by natural variability – wet periods and dry periods associated with El Niño and La Niña, for example – from trends related to climate change or human impacts, like pumping groundwater out of an aquifer faster than it is replenished...”

“What we are witnessing is major hydrologic change,” said co-author Jay Famiglietti of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. “We see a distinctive pattern of the wetland areas of the world getting wetter – those are the high latitudes and the tropics – and the dry areas in between getting dryer. Embedded within the dry areas we see multiple hotspots resulting from groundwater depletion...”

Famiglietti noted that while water loss in some regions, like the melting ice sheets and alpine glaciers, is clearly driven by warming climate, it will require more time and data to determine the driving forces behind other patterns of freshwater change...


This map depicts a time series of data collected by NASA’s Gravity Recovery
and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission from 2002 to 2016, showing where
freshwater storage was higher (blue) or lower (red) than the average for the
14-year study period. (NASA image)
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Old 17-05-2018, 09:01   #1160
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

The Sea is rising,but..... WSJ Article
Those of you that use “ The science is settled” argument like a hammer must realize when thoughtful minded people ( like myself). Read articles like this https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sea...nge-1526423254. Well, you look very closed minded.
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Old 17-05-2018, 09:22   #1161
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by conachair View Post
Well aware og his work, this is a plot I created a while ago of (from memory) his satellite data -


Not a huge amount going on with published work showing it's down to natural variation though >
https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar...encer+climate+

One link jumps out >




Does this really bode to be a balanced scientific discussion on the subject? Yeah, righto...

Curry I used to have on RSS, least she seems to know what she's on about and have a bit of a desire to dig deep. The invariable biased comments hinted at her target audience ..

So back from a couple of outliers to the other vast ocean of published work pointing to human involvement...

Another question raises it head high with all this - if greenhouse gasses aren't involved then why not? The same quantum physics that makes everything in the world today work predicts greenhouse gasses slow the heat loss, if that isn't happening then why not?
Tough to find a "balanced" discussion on just about any subject these days! Sorry, I didn't mean to post the obvious to you -- if you're plotting your own graphs then you're probably more schooled up than I am. And there's probably little doubt that the weight of scientific opinion believes that AGW is a significant factor in warming temps, but once you get past that question any sort of consensus seems to break down. And for good reason. Whether AGW is the dominant or only factor, what the consequences of any such man-made global warming may be, and whether it will on balance even be harmful, are all unsettled and thus hotly debated topics both within and without the scientific community. And then, of course, is the earth's capacity to absorb the add'l CO2, an issue that recently resulted in a study that significantly lowered the projections for warming over the next century. You were around for that one, right? I guess we'll have to see if it becomes the new accepted norm.

I think the disconnect amongst otherwise well-intended people may partly be on account of many believers having a strong opinion that the mere existence of any level of AGW is enough to warrant a strong response, regardless of its proportions or impact. This syncs with a hatred of fossil fuels, with all its adverse consequences. I can respect and appreciate that, but it's rather divorced from the reality of a world where almost all of its billions of inhabitants are dependent on the stuff in one form or another. It also ignores all the positive aspects of fossil fuels, namely lifting so many millions out of poverty. That's why I personally don't believe that potential answers lie with solutions based on ideology as opposed to practicality.
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Old 17-05-2018, 09:32   #1162
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Well the MMGW get a reprieve for cooling happening Kilauea just blew to fl300 ( 30,000 ft) about 30 min ago
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Old 17-05-2018, 11:04   #1163
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Tough to find a "balanced" discussion on just about any subject these days! Sorry, I didn't mean to post the obvious to you -- if you're plotting your own graphs then you're probably more schooled up than I am. And there's probably little doubt that the weight of scientific opinion believes that AGW is a significant factor in warming temps,
Maybe this is where we differ, beliefs or opinions don't actually count for that much really, IMHO. It's the sheer volume of science pointing towards humans having a big part to play in the recent warming which puts the probability firmly at our door. Plus the lack of any other explanation.

Plus if not, then why not? What's gone so wrong with physics that causes greenhouse gasses to somehow behave so differently than predicted when everything else works?


Quote:
This syncs with a hatred of fossil fuels, with all its adverse consequences. I can respect and appreciate that, but it's rather divorced from the reality of a world where almost all of its billions of inhabitants are dependent on the stuff in one form or another. It also ignores all the positive aspects of fossil fuels, namely lifting so many millions out of poverty. That's why I personally don't believe that potential answers lie with solutions based on ideology as opposed to practicality.
IMHO the complete reliance on setting fire to ancient fossilized plants as an energy source is about as stupid as a species could get. It will run out, it pollutes, it change the composition of the atmosphere. Not much different than chopping down trees on Easter Island.

But then no one is in charge, we're just a bunch of big brained apes with money and guns running rampant on the planet.

Might as well enjoy the good times while they last
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Old 17-05-2018, 11:11   #1164
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
me thinks you don't actually read the reports
This is from page 2150 of the report
That is not the image you posted.
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Old 17-05-2018, 11:18   #1165
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Well the MMGW get a reprieve for cooling happening Kilauea just blew to fl300 ( 30,000 ft) about 30 min ago
The cooling will be short lived just like Pinatubo, El Chichon, etc..
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Old 17-05-2018, 12:58   #1166
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by conachair View Post
Maybe this is where we differ, beliefs or opinions don't actually count for that much really, IMHO. It's the sheer volume of science pointing towards humans having a big part to play in the recent warming which puts the probability firmly at our door. Plus the lack of any other explanation.

You kinda lost me here. We're talking about expert scientific opinion from scientists in the field, right? Not sure which beliefs or opinions you're referring to.

The weight of the evidence is certainly relevant but not dispositive of course. Science has been wrong before after pronouncing equal levels of consensus & certainty. No other explanation? What about experts in the field who believe we've been in a warming cycle since the LIA? Do you know where the weight of expert opinion comes down on that one?


Plus if not, then why not? What's gone so wrong with physics that causes greenhouse gasses to somehow behave so differently than predicted when everything else works?

A large majority of expert opinion says the greenhouse effect is working as it should or they wouldn't also believe that AGW exists. But the ability of the earth to absorb CO2 is significant and apparently not well understood, and some recent evidence suggests it's more than previously thought. There are also natural forces that have been discussed at length which some experts believe simply overwhelm the GHG effect. What about the last few years of cooling temps, according to the UAH data anyway? You'd think if it was all about GHG/CO2 we'd be on a consistent upward trajectory year after year.

IMHO the complete reliance on setting fire to ancient fossilized plants as an energy source is about as stupid as a species could get. It will run out, it pollutes, it change the composition of the atmosphere. Not much different than chopping down trees on Easter Island.

Tell that to the people from the horse & buggy age who believed that horse poop covering the streets of their town was an intractable health hazard. To them fossil fuels and automobiles were a godsend. Or how about millions in the developing world who now have electricity, running water, and internet access? Your opinion can only be made with the benefit of hindsight, and from one who has already benefitted immeasurably from "setting fire to ancient fossilized plants." Given the current state of technology, what exactly is your alternative?

But then no one is in charge, we're just a bunch of big brained apes with money and guns running rampant on the planet.

I'd be inclined to trade a few degrees of extra warmth not to have to live in a society controlled by someone or some all-powerful institution who's "in charge."

Might as well enjoy the good times while they last
May the breeze be fresh and a fair one.

May your life be long and a good one.

May your death be easy and a quick one.

May your beer be cold,

Let's have another one.

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Old 17-05-2018, 13:14   #1167
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by conachair View Post

...

Another question raises it head high with all this - if greenhouse gasses aren't involved then why not? The same quantum physics that makes everything in the world today work predicts greenhouse gasses slow the heat loss, if that isn't happening then why not?
You might want to ask Al Gore and Bill Nye....

MiltonConservative: Al Gore and Bill Nye FAIL at doing a simple CO2 experiment

or the MythBusters...

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Old 17-05-2018, 14:05   #1168
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by brantleychuck View Post
The Sea is rising,but..... WSJ Article
Those of you that use “ The science is settled” argument like a hammer must realize when thoughtful minded people ( like myself). Read articles like this https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sea...nge-1526423254. Well, you look very closed minded.
For those of you who don't subscribe to the WSJ, and thus can't read the article, it is also posted on Watts Up With That:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/...limate-change/

After reading the article, what I noticed is that Singer provides very few scientific references to support his many controversial assertions. That raises a lot of red flags for me.

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Old 17-05-2018, 14:08   #1169
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
The cooling will be short lived just like Pinatubo, El Chichon, etc..
Jack actually it will be a very localized cooling event the blast only went approximately 4 miles into the air pinatubo blasted to 21miles. My statement was mentioned to be a semi joke and intentionally exaggerated.
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Old 17-05-2018, 14:37   #1170
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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...And finally there is a camp who believe, quite realistically imho, that to the extent our impact is significant that there isn't much we can do about it beyond what we're already doing (and China, India and other parts of the developing are not doing and unlikely to do).

So not quite as simple as some around here like to portray it. But then simple has always been one of the seductions of more ideological minds.
The greatest deception men suffer is their own opinions.
-Leonardo da Vinci

So actually China is doing quite a lot in the field of renewable energy. And while they've now become the country with the largest carbon emissions, they still are far less than the US in terms of CO2 emissions per capita.

China Is the New World Leader in Renewable Energy | Futurism
Quote:
A new report from the IEEFA is positioning China as a world leader in renewable energy investment. The country has put $44 billion in clean energy projects around the world.
China leads in global shift to renewable energy | DW
Quote:
Investment in renewable energy continues to grow at a record pace as countries look to move away from fossil fuel-based power production to eco-friendly generation. Over half of world's new solar capacity is in China.
Here are six of China’s ambitious, mind-boggling, renewable energy projects | CNBC
Quote:
When it comes to renewable energy, China is, in many ways, striking out on its own. According to the International Energy Agency, new solar photovoltaic capacity grew by 50 percent in 2016. China alone accounted for nearly half that expansion. In the wind energy sector, China installed a staggering 23.4 gigawatts of new capacity in 2016, according to the Global Wind Energy Council.
China's renewable energy revolution | McKinsey
Quote:
At the start of 2017, China announced that it would invest $360 billion in renewable energy by 2020 and scrap plans to build 85 coal-fired power plants. In March, Chinese authorities reported that the country was already exceeding official targets for energy efficiency, carbon intensity, and the share of clean energy sources. And just last month, China’s energy regulator, the National Energy Administration, rolled out new measures to reduce the country’s dependence on coal.
China on track to lead in renewables as US retreats, report says | The Guardian
(Ya gotta luv that tRump administration -- )
Quote:
China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and still invests in coal but in recent years it has become the largest investor in domestic renewable energy. The country is now on track to lead international investment in the sector, according to the report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

“As the global transition toward renewables gains pace and as battery storage and electric vehicles technologies pick up momentum, China is setting itself up to dominate these sectors globally over the next several decades of this century,” said IEEFA.
For every $1 the US put into adding renewable energy last year, China put in $3 | Quartz
Quote:
Last year nearly half of the world’s new renewable energy investment of $279.8 billion (pdf, p.11) came from China, according to a report published April 5 by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and the sustainable energy finance center run by the United Nations Environment Program and the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management. China’s investment in renewable energy—excluding large hydro projects—rose 30% compared with 2016, and was more than three times of that of the US, whose investment in the sector dropped 6% from 2016 to $40.5 billion last year.

China wants to dominate the world’s green energy markets – here’s why | The Conversation
Quote:
If there is to be an effective response to climate change, it will probably emanate from China. The geopolitical motivations are clear. Renewable energy is increasingly inevitable, and those that dominate the markets in these new technologies will likely have the most influence over the development patterns of the future. As other major powers find themselves in climate denial or atrophy, China may well boost its power and status by becoming the global energy leader of tomorrow...

But there are material benefits as well. China’s proactive response has impacted on global energy markets. Today, five of the world’s six top solar-module manufacturers, five of the largest wind turbine manufacturers, and six of the ten major car manufacturers committed to electrification are all Chinese-owned. Meanwhile, China is dominant in the lithium sector – think: batteries, electric vehicles and so on – and a global leader in smart grid investment and other renewable energy technologies...
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