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Old 16-05-2018, 07:03   #1141
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
And to think that Newhaul has also been so polite & patient towards you . . . .

This was an interesting comment from the "BEST" surface temp data source, according to our resident non-expert Jack:

"Many of the changes in land-surface temperature can be explained by a combination of volcanoes and a proxy for human greenhouse gas emissions. Solar variation does not seem to impact the temperature trend.

As best I can gather, "proxy" means "approximated." So does the study itself define this further or provide a margin for error? If warming due to GHG is approximate, what accounts for the rest of the warming? As for solar variation, this "BEST" study doesn't sound as dismissive as some on this thread would suggest.
BEST = Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature.

Here is their first paper - http://static.berkeleyearth.org/pape...eley-Earth.pdf

Their comments about the role of solar activity are stronger.
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Old 16-05-2018, 07:03   #1142
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Is there a particular reason why you consistently fail to give links/references to what you post? Are you lazy, or incompetent, or ???
here is a source for the maunder reconstruction
https://www.semanticscholar.org/pape...d2d4b4a3157d42
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Old 16-05-2018, 08:12   #1143
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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here is a source for the maunder reconstruction
https://www.semanticscholar.org/pape...d2d4b4a3157d42
The third author is interesting.
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Old 16-05-2018, 08:47   #1144
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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The third author is interesting.
so you approve then I take it , Your messiah is listed.
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Old 16-05-2018, 09:22   #1145
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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so you approve then I take it , Your messiah is listed.
Actually, as an agnostic, I have no messiah. In your little Cult of Ra. Mann is your Satan.

The fact that you never bothered to check is the source in an indication of your inability use a CRAAP Test.
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Old 16-05-2018, 09:37   #1146
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Actually, as an agnostic, I have no messiah. In your little Cult of Ra. Mann is your Satan.

The fact that you never bothered to check is the source in an indication of your inability use a CRAAP Test.
actually I posted that particular link intentionally due to mann being one of the authors.
So your craap test fails again.
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Old 16-05-2018, 09:54   #1147
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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actually I posted that particular link intentionally due to mann being one of the authors.
So your craap test fails again.
Methinks you are fibbing.

That image does not come from the study. The text below the image was added later.
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Old 16-05-2018, 09:59   #1148
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Actually, as an agnostic, I have no messiah. In your little Cult of Ra. Mann is your Satan.

The fact that you never bothered to check is the source in an indication of your inability use a CRAAP Test.
I haven't heard much Mann or Hansen bashing in awhile, even though their overt political bias, not unlike yours, is more than enough to give a reasonably objective person pause to swallow their science whole without further inquiry.

It's ironic that you keep citing the CRAAP test when you seem to consistently fail to meet the final requirement. I guess it depends on who's grading the test, right?

Purpose: The reason the information exists.
 What is the purpose of the information? Is it to inform, teach, sell, entertain or persuade?
 Do the authors/sponsors make their intentions or purpose clear?
 Is the information fact, opinion or propaganda?
 Does the point of view appear objective and impartial?
 Are there political, ideological, cultural, religious, institutional or personal biases?
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Old 16-05-2018, 10:23   #1149
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Methinks you are fibbing.

That image does not come from the study. The text below the image was added later.
me thinks you don't actually read the reports
This is from page 2150 of the report
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Old 16-05-2018, 11:19   #1150
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
C'mon now, I can't keep spoon-feeding you guys on how to debate this stuff.
Though.......... What is the *debate*?

There's seems to be a fair amount of debate in science as to just how sensitive the temperature of the atmosphere is with increases in greenhouse gasses, but that's pretty much it. You really won't find anyone credible saying nothing is happening or that humans don't have a significant part in it - what are you debating?

Reading the science reporting in the media it wouldn't be difficult to come up with a very different view either way...
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Old 16-05-2018, 16:59   #1151
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Though.......... What is the *debate*?

There's seems to be a fair amount of debate in science as to just how sensitive the temperature of the atmosphere is with increases in greenhouse gasses, but that's pretty much it. You really won't find anyone credible saying nothing is happening or that humans don't have a significant part in it - what are you debating?

Reading the science reporting in the media it wouldn't be difficult to come up with a very different view either way...
Your last sentence is absolutely correct. All you can do is recognize the bias in whatever sources you're reading and question them as you deem appropriate. Then go and read other, perhaps contrarian sources and do the same thing. Maybe only then can you reach an indpt. conclusion for yourself, whether it's totally one or the other, or somewhere in between.

My view is that the actual debate within the science is very different than what the majority of the media is reporting. I think you're probably right that a large majority of climate scientists believe with certainty that AGW exists and that humans are having an impact. Prominent skeptics like Curry, Spencer & Christy are in that camp. Perhaps a majority also believe that this impact is "significant." There are also an undetermined number that believe the earth is in a natural warming cycle as opposed to Jack's oft-cited Milakovitch-generated cooling phase. If the former are correct, then there is further division as to how much human vs. natural forces are impacting the warming and the consequences that follow (like sea ice & glacier melt). And finally there is a camp who believe, quite realistically imho, that to the extent our impact is significant that there isn't much we can do about it beyond what we're already doing (and China, India and other parts of the developing are not doing and unlikely to do).

So not quite as simple as some around here like to portray it. But then simple has always been one of the seductions of more ideological minds.
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Old 16-05-2018, 17:31   #1152
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Your last sentence is absolutely correct. All you can do is recognize the bias in whatever sources you're reading and question them as you deem appropriate....

Allow me to present the Curious Case of the Adelie Penguins....

Case 1: They're doomed!...

Goodbye Penguins? Antarctica Could Lose Its Adélie Penguins Due To Climate Change

Penguin disaster as only two chicks survive from colony of 40,000

Antarctica Could Lose Most of Its Penguins to Climate Change

Climate change may shrink Adélie penguin range by end of century

Case 2: They're Saved!...

Climate change winners: Adélie penguin population expands as ice fields recede

Retreating Antarctic ice may benefit Adelie penguins of the East Antarctic

Shrinking Antarctic glaciers could make Adélie penguins unlikely winners of climate change

Breeding failure of nearly 20,000 Adélie penguins

Yep, nuttin' to debate.
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Old 16-05-2018, 17:58   #1153
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Yup, and no uncertainties neither. Yet the unreasoned & illogical analogies persist.

I wonder how many credible and respected scientists and/or doctors believe that smoking is not a health hazard. Or that the earth is flat, the sun orbits around the earth, or whatever other BS is foisted upon us for questioning the science of "climate change?" Nope, climate science is "not settled," yet if you don't believe it's "settled enough" then you must be [insert favorite political, religious, or other slight here].

Any predictions from our gang of non-expert, expert science gurus on the Hawaii volcano blowing it's top? I say all those aerosols will lower temps for awhile, but the ash that settles on the ice will increase temps and cause further melting, but then temps will be lowered because the ash will diminish the intensity of the sun, but then temps will increase because not enough of us are buying electric cars.

Reminds me of . . . I know . . . the Adelie Penguins!
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Old 16-05-2018, 20:40   #1154
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Yup, and no uncertainties neither. Yet the unreasoned & illogical analogies persist.

I wonder how many credible and respected scientists and/or doctors believe that smoking is not a health hazard. Or that the earth is flat, the sun orbits around the earth, or whatever other BS is foisted upon us for questioning the science of "climate change?" Nope, climate science is "not settled," yet if you don't believe it's "settled enough" then you must be [insert favorite political, religious, or other slight here].

Any predictions from our gang of non-expert, expert science gurus on the Hawaii volcano blowing it's top? I say all those aerosols will lower temps for awhile, but the ash that settles on the ice will increase temps and cause further melting, but then temps will be lowered because the ash will diminish the intensity of the sun, but then temps will increase because not enough of us are buying electric cars.

Reminds me of . . . I know . . . the Adelie Penguins!
as to Hawaii's Mt Kilauea the ash is moving southwest and settling into the open ocean the plumes are only going up about to fl090 so only localized cooling effects.
Now other silica rich volcanoes that will be erupting due to increased cosmic rays will cool the planet even more. The increase in cosmic rays is due to the decrease in sun spots. And solar winds .
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Old 17-05-2018, 00:10   #1155
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Your last sentence is absolutely correct. All you can do is recognize the bias in whatever sources you're reading and question them as you deem appropriate. Then go and read other, perhaps contrarian sources and do the same thing. Maybe only then can you reach an indpt. conclusion for yourself, whether it's totally one or the other, or somewhere in between.
If it's science you're interested in then in the likes of science daily & Nature etc there are always links to the actual papers, sometimes behind paywalls but often enough of a summary to hopefully get the gist of the paper.
- is there any "contrarian" science for the overall view that the planet is warming quickly beyond what has been "business as usual" & greenhouse gasses fit the bill as a significant factor?



Quote:
My view is that the actual debate within the science is very different than what the majority of the media is reporting. I think you're probably right that a large majority of climate scientists believe with certainty that AGW exists and that humans are having an impact. Prominent skeptics like Curry, Spencer & Christy are in that camp. Perhaps a majority also believe that this impact is "significant."
So the media can't be trusted.... no great surprise there



Quote:
There are also an undetermined number that believe the earth is in a natural warming cycle as opposed to Jack's oft-cited Milakovitch-generated cooling phase.
Any links to published papers?


Quote:
And finally there is a camp who believe, quite realistically imho, that to the extent our impact is significant that there isn't much we can do about it beyond what we're already doing (and China, India and other parts of the developing are not doing and unlikely to do).
Tending more towards philosophy/anthropology? And it AFAICS a very likely outcome, not through any kind of political viewpoints but more a lack of evidence that the big brained apes called homo sapiens are actually in any way capable of any kind of large scale/long term conscious control over the way the species as whole behaves & goes forward. Seems little different to bacteria in a petri dish or a few rabbits let loose in Australia. Our brains just didn't evolve to worry about years into the future, look after the tribe today programmed deep into the subconscious has been exceptionally successful over the past couple of hundred thousand years. Maybe not now though.......
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