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Old 15-05-2018, 15:29   #1126
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I prefer using the dmi for my readings. ( the canes have been at it a lot longer than the USA has even been a country)
sunspots have a 6 to 12 month lag time but considering this period of low sunspots I expect the full effects to actually start showing next year
In answer to your query I would have to say below 5.5 k km3 would be quite unexpected.
Does that answer you?
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what canes ?
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Old 15-05-2018, 15:59   #1127
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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SailOar
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Watch out for those "canes". They'll blow you away if you don't hang on.
ok autocorrect it was supposed to be Danes.
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Old 15-05-2018, 18:48   #1128
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I have never claimed that potholer54 is a climate scientist. I seldom quote Peter Hadfield.

That being said here is an interesting "debate" between two non-climate scientists Hadfield and Ben Davidson of Suspicious Observers.

https://youtu.be/ttmQbCeSQAg

So it seems that Hadfield is prepared to debate.
Then Tim Ball's qualifications are irrelevant then. It's of no relevance to declare yourself a "Climate change expert" if you don't have the paperwork to back it up.

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BTW That is his accent; he is English.
I'm sure our English members are chuffed that you consider their accents, as a whole, to be "overly pompous and demeaning".
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Old 16-05-2018, 05:20   #1129
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Melting of Arctic mountain glaciers unprecedented in the past 400 years | Science News

A study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, reports that glaciers in Alaska's Denali National Park are melting faster than at any time in the past four centuries because of rising summer temperatures.

Ice cores taken from the summit of Mt. Hunter in Denali National Park show summers there are least 1.2-2 degrees Celsius (2.2-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than summers were during the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries. The warming at Mt. Hunter is about double the amount of warming that has occurred during the summer at areas at sea level in Alaska over the same time period.

The warmer temperatures are melting 60 times more snow from Mt. Hunter today than the amount of snow that melted during the summer before the start of the industrial period 150 years ago, according to the study.

The study's authors conclude warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean has contributed to the unprecedented melting of Mt. Hunter's glaciers by altering how air moves from the tropics to the poles. They suspect melting of mountain glaciers may accelerate faster than melting of sea level glaciers as the Arctic continues to warm.
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Old 16-05-2018, 05:50   #1130
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Melting of Arctic mountain glaciers unprecedented in the past 400 years | Science News

A study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, reports that glaciers in Alaska's Denali National Park are melting faster than at any time in the past four centuries because of rising summer temperatures.

Ice cores taken from the summit of Mt. Hunter in Denali National Park show summers there are least 1.2-2 degrees Celsius (2.2-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than summers were during the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries. The warming at Mt. Hunter is about double the amount of warming that has occurred during the summer at areas at sea level in Alaska over the same time period.

The warmer temperatures are melting 60 times more snow from Mt. Hunter today than the amount of snow that melted during the summer before the start of the industrial period 150 years ago, according to the study.

The study's authors conclude warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean has contributed to the unprecedented melting of Mt. Hunter's glaciers by altering how air moves from the tropics to the poles. They suspect melting of mountain glaciers may accelerate faster than melting of sea level glaciers as the Arctic continues to warm.
Finally! Some evidence that goes back more than 30-40 years and purports to do a comparison with conditions prior to the era of fossil fuels. What a concept!

They attribute the Arctic warming to warmer waters in the Pacific, and in turn attribute all of that warmer water to AGW. We'll have to see what the experts in the skeptic camp have to say (or have already said) about those premises. That would be the objective approach anyway.
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Old 16-05-2018, 06:04   #1131
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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We'll have to see what the experts in the skeptic camp have to say
Are there any?

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Old 16-05-2018, 06:05   #1132
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Finally! Some evidence that goes back more than 30-40 years and purports to do a comparison with conditions prior to the era of fossil fuels. What a concept!

They attribute the Arctic warming to warmer waters in the Pacific, and in turn attribute all of that warmer water to AGW. We'll have to see what the experts in the skeptic camp have to say (or have already said) about those premises. That would be the objective approach anyway.
The BEST temperature set goes back to 1750.

Berkeley Earth
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Old 16-05-2018, 06:13   #1133
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Finally! Some evidence that goes back more than 30-40 years and purports to do a comparison with conditions prior to the era of fossil fuels. What a concept!

They attribute the Arctic warming to warmer waters in the Pacific, and in turn attribute all of that warmer water to AGW. We'll have to see what the experts in the skeptic camp have to say (or have already said) about those premises. That would be the objective approach anyway.
here ya go I posted this before but here it is again.
Also just to inform the maunder minimum was during the coldest part of the LIA
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Old 16-05-2018, 06:15   #1134
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Are there any?

for some reason this didn't upload with the other one.
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Old 16-05-2018, 06:27   #1135
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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here ya go I posted this before but here it is again.
Also just to inform the maunder minimum was during the coldest part of the LIA
Is there a particular reason why you consistently fail to give links/references to what you post? Are you lazy, or incompetent, or ???
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Old 16-05-2018, 06:30   #1136
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by conachair View Post
Are there any?

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The BEST temperature set goes back to 1750.

Berkeley Earth
"Berkeley Earth has just released analysis of land-surface temperature records going back 250 years, about 100 years further than previous studies. The analysis shows that the rise in average world land temperature globe is approximately 1.5 degrees C in the past 250 years, and about 0.9 degrees in the past 50 years."

I didn't make it past the summary, but am already wondering if "land surface data" also includes sea temp data since we were discussing Pacific Ocean temps. If so, then how do they obtain sea temps from that far back?

And of course the 800-lb. gorilla that always seems to be in the room, namely the disparity between the surface data and the sat data, at least as far back as 1979 that is. Is this not the basis for experts like Spencer & Christy to theorize that increasing temps are more consistent with natural forces? YOU may not agree with their conclusions, but THEY are recognized experts in their fields, no?

C'mon now, I can't keep spoon-feeding you guys on how to debate this stuff.
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Old 16-05-2018, 06:36   #1137
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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for some reason this didn't upload with the other one.
More recent research does not support this 2002 paper.

Start with.

https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/ar...2/2.17/3074082
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Old 16-05-2018, 06:41   #1138
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Is there a particular reason why you consistently fail to give links/references to what you post? Are you lazy, or incompetent, or ???
And to think that Newhaul has also been so polite & patient towards you . . . .

This was an interesting comment from the "BEST" surface temp data source, according to our resident non-expert Jack:

"Many of the changes in land-surface temperature can be explained by a combination of volcanoes and a proxy for human greenhouse gas emissions. Solar variation does not seem to impact the temperature trend.

As best I can gather, "proxy" means "approximated." So does the study itself define this further or provide a margin for error? If warming due to GHG is approximate, what accounts for the rest of the warming? As for solar variation, this "BEST" study doesn't sound as dismissive as some on this thread would suggest.
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Old 16-05-2018, 06:48   #1139
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
"Berkeley Earth has just released analysis of land-surface temperature records going back 250 years, about 100 years further than previous studies. The analysis shows that the rise in average world land temperature globe is approximately 1.5 degrees C in the past 250 years, and about 0.9 degrees in the past 50 years."

I didn't make it past the summary, but am already wondering if "land surface data" also includes sea temp data since we were discussing Pacific Ocean temps. If so, then how do they obtain sea temps from that far back?

And of course the 800-lb. gorilla that always seems to be in the room, namely the disparity between the surface data and the sat data, at least as far back as 1979 that is. Is this not the basis for experts like Spencer & Christy to theorize that increasing temps are more consistent with natural forces? YOU may not agree with their conclusions, but THEY are recognized experts in their fields, no?

C'mon now, I can't keep spoon-feeding you guys on how to debate this stuff.
You asked about longer data sets. I spoon-fed you one. You regurgitated .

Maybe you should fed yourself and read the rest of the BEST studies, so that I do not have predigest it for you.
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Old 16-05-2018, 06:53   #1140
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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As best I can gather, "proxy" means "approximated."
Nope. https://www.nap.edu/read/5142/chapter/7#490
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