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Old 15-05-2018, 14:04   #1111
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
jack the same old tired graphs?
Where is your data showing the actual last month or even the last 3 months?
Ta da



1.5 SD below the mean.
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Old 15-05-2018, 14:06   #1112
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I have never claimed that potholer54 is a climate scientist. I seldom quote Peter Hadfield.

That being said here is an interesting "debate" between two non-climate scientists Hadfield and Ben Davidson of Suspicious Observers.

https://youtu.be/ttmQbCeSQAg

So it seems that Hadfield is prepared to debate.

BTW That is his accent; he is English.
just to clarify
Ben Davidson is a climate scientist.

Degree in Meteorology from Penn state.
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Old 15-05-2018, 14:07   #1113
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Should I post the record back to 1953. Do you have anything longer?

Please tell me what the ice volume was during the MWP. Or are you just JAQing off. (https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Just_asking_questions)
Posting ice graphs that only go back to 1979 (when the sat data began) is one thing. Implying that this is dispositive evidence of MMGW is amateurish at best and misleading at worst.
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Old 15-05-2018, 14:09   #1114
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Ta da



1.5 SD below the mean.
it also shows the flat line of current ice volume no appreciable melt in the last ( looks to be and I'm estimating here ) between 2 and 3 weeks of your chart which looks to be a month behind the dmi charts.
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Old 15-05-2018, 14:14   #1115
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Posting ice graphs that only go back to 1979 (when the sat data began) is one thing. Implying that this is dispositive evidence of MMGW is amateurish at best and misleading at worst.
there is sat data that goes further back but they don't want you to see it ( its counter to their meme )
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Old 15-05-2018, 14:17   #1116
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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hard to say there are so many variables ( ice breakers in the region)
I am going to forecast a moderate melt season and we should see a minimum this summer in the general neighborhood between 7 and 8 thousand km3 at the end of the melt season .

So lets see I have forecast a drop in global temp to the 0 point of the 81 to 2010 average,
And now I say 7.5 k km3 ice volume
Lets see how it plays out.
And just for the record a 75% or higher sun spotless year as well .
Ice area is to variable to say with any degree of certainty.
7.5 km3 is still pretty low (~1 SD below the mean, on the PIOMAS chart), considering how much you've been pushing the low sunspot idea.

If you don't mind putting your neck further in the noose, how low would ice volume need to drop for you to say that your sunspot idea was wrong?
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Old 15-05-2018, 14:35   #1117
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
7.5 km3 is still pretty low (~1 SD below the mean, on the PIOMAS chart), considering how much you've been pushing the low sunspot idea.

If you don't mind putting your neck further in the noose, how low would ice volume need to drop for you to say that your sunspot idea was wrong?
I prefer using the dmi for my readings. ( the canes have been at it a lot longer than the USA has even been a country)
sunspots have a 6 to 12 month lag time but considering this period of low sunspots I expect the full effects to actually start showing next year
In answer to your query I would have to say below 5.5 k km3 would be quite unexpected.
Does that answer you?
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Old 15-05-2018, 14:48   #1118
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
I prefer using the dmi for my readings. ( the canes have been at it a lot longer than the USA has even been a country)
sunspots have a 6 to 12 month lag time but considering this period of low sunspots I expect the full effects to actually start showing next year
In answer to your query I would have to say below 5.5 k km3 would be quite unexpected.
Does that answer you?
Yes.
5.5 km3 on the DMI chart.

The DMI chart that's been posted is smallish and rather hard to read. I suppose that somewhere online there are actual dates and volumes? Anyone know where?

PS
Watch out for those "canes". They'll blow you away if you don't hang on.
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Old 15-05-2018, 14:52   #1119
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
Yes.
5.5 km3 on the DMI chart.

The DMI chart that's been posted is smallish and rather hard to read. I suppose that somewhere online there are actual dates and volumes? Anyone know where?

PS
Watch out for those "canes". They'll blow you away if you don't hang on.
what canes ?
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Old 15-05-2018, 15:08   #1120
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post

there is sat data that goes further back but they don't want you to see it ( its counter to their meme )
Prove it!
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Old 15-05-2018, 15:09   #1121
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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)
sunspots have a 6 to 12 month lag time but considering this period of low sunspots I expect the full effects to actually start showing next year
Citation please.
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Old 15-05-2018, 15:14   #1122
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
just to clarify
Ben Davidson is a climate scientist.

Degree in Meteorology from Penn state.
He is a lawyer.

Quote:

Abbreviated CV:

Education

Juris Doctorate – Capital University Law School 2011

Summer Clerkship, Justice Pfeiffer, The Supreme Court of Ohio

BA Economics – Denison University 2006-2008
Golf Team, 2007 All-Conference Team

Economics/Meteorology – Penn State University (Schreyers’ Honors) 2003-2005
https://www.suspicious0bservers.org/about-faq/

He studied economics and meteorology for two years. He has a degree in economics.

I get the suspicion that you are still using his disinformation.
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Old 15-05-2018, 15:21   #1123
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

More Danish ice data with larger graphs and maps

Sea Ice Extent: Polar Portal
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Old 15-05-2018, 15:26   #1124
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Prove it!
I posted the links previously and not using anyone's ideas in using NOAA satellite data and my own research .
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Old 15-05-2018, 15:27   #1125
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Decline of old ice in the Arctic



Figurw 2. The figure shows the distribution of different ages of ice. More than 25% of the ice in the early 1980s was more than 4 years old. Today such old ice can hardly be measured. Credit: NSIDC courtesy J. Maslanik and M. Tschudi, University of Colorado

Understanding the Arctic sea ice: Polar Portal

From the same page

Quote:
The records of sea ice thickness are not as precise and reliable as the information gathered on sea ice extent. The reason for this is primarily that it is difficult to obtain good data. DMI has developed a model, which can calculate the sea ice thickness using data from a weather forecast model from the European weather centre ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).
And

Quote:
The sheer size of the sea ice and the magnitude of the changes mean that effects will be – and already are – noticeable, in the Arctic and beyond. In the future, climate models indicate that we should expect even further melting of the sea ice. In the SWIPA-report from the Arctic Council, it is stated that we can expect a nearly ice-free summer within a few decades.
Those Danes are pretty good; they have been at it for a long time.
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