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Old 11-05-2018, 13:45   #1006
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Perhaps you could present some science and stop with the personal attacks on me.

When you are prepared to that we can engage in an adult conversation.
You mistake a personal attack for one which simply calls you out for judging the merit of a scientific opinion based on the personal religious beliefs of the scientist who proffers it. How else can your comments possibly be explained? There is nothing "adult" about such a conversation unless you can demonstrate undue influence or bias resulting therefrom. Mere association with a particular religion, politician, interest group, or ideology, in the absence of evidence of unprofessional bias, doesn't suffice. Does this really have to be explained?

I'll await some credible evidence from you that shows a causal connection between Spencer's personal religious beliefs and the integrity of his scientific opinions. Otherwise I can only conclude that you are utterly intolerant and disrespectful of other people's views and beliefs to the extent they differ from your own, at least when it comes to climate science that is. You've repeatedly made the assertion; it's now time to show the evidence please.
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Old 11-05-2018, 14:31   #1007
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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You mistake a personal attack for one which simply calls you out for judging the merit of a scientific opinion based on the personal religious beliefs of the scientist who proffers it. How else can your comments possibly be explained? There is nothing "adult" about such a conversation unless you can demonstrate undue influence or bias resulting therefrom. Mere association with a particular religion, politician, interest group, or ideology, in the absence of evidence of unprofessional bias, doesn't suffice. Does this really have to be explained?

I'll await some credible evidence from you that shows a causal connection between Spencer's personal religious beliefs and the integrity of his scientific opinions. Otherwise I can only conclude that you are utterly intolerant and disrespectful of other people's views and beliefs to the extent they differ from your own, at least when it comes to climate science that is. You've repeatedly made the assertion; it's now time to show the evidence please.
I also called out Spencer and Christy for a documented history of mistakes.

I especially appreciate Spencer for these blogs
1) Time for the Slayers to Put Up or Shut Up « Roy Spencer, PhD
2) Skeptical Arguments that Don’t Hold Water « Roy Spencer, PhD

I am not sure that you have read the Cornwall Declaration. This is what it, and Spencer as a signatory, espouse:

Quote:
We believe Earth and its ecosystems—created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence —are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth’s climate system is no exception. Recent global warming is one of many natural cycles of warming and cooling in geologic history.
I recommend that you spend some time exploring the Cornwall site. Here is one of Spencer's contributions:

https://cornwallalliance.org/2016/11...dodgy-science/

Here some other takes on Spencer and Cornwall:

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpre...wall-alliance/


https://www.realskeptic.com/2014/01/...igion-science/
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Old 11-05-2018, 16:04   #1008
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Now you're just embarrassing yourself. Can the producers of your data, sourced from some random hosting site, which you believe is somehow more valid than mine - apparently for no other reason than because it supports you beliefs of the upcoming AGW apocalypse - land a probe on the planet Mars? The producers of my data can. And we're talking data collected by artificial satellites that are located in space, after all...


Oh yeah. FYI. Your data is 2015 era. That's like iPhone 5 times.
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Old 11-05-2018, 16:12   #1009
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Oh, I just noticed that "meanwhile" bit. Here's a heads up. If sea level is surprising rising at one particular location, it ain't because of global warming. You sea (sea what I did there) - sea level rise doesn't work like the tide. It can only be influenced by things like gravity variations and tectonic plate movement.

BTW. That retaining wall in the photograph tells me instantly that the property owners have been dudded by the property developer they purchased it from. That land was never going to be suitable for development.
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Old 11-05-2018, 16:23   #1010
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Now you're just embarrassing yourself. Can the producers of your data, sourced from some random hosting site, which you believe is somehow more valid than mine - apparently for no other reason than because it supports you beliefs of the upcoming AGW apocalypse - land a probe on the planet Mars? The producers of my data can. And we're talking data collected by artificial satellites that are located in space, after all...


Oh yeah. FYI. Your data is 2015 era. That's like iPhone 5 times.
Your graph (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/) and my graph both indicate a 3.2 mm /per year increase in sea level from 1993. Both measured by satellite.

What is your issue?
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Old 11-05-2018, 16:51   #1011
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Seawater expands as temperatures warm. The earth has been warming since the LIA according to some. Land masses rise and sink. The technology for measuring sea level rise & fall is not well developed. Yet we are inundated with doomsday posts which don't even attempt to explain cause & effect.

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I know - hence the adjustments to the non-satellite data.

WHAT???

I'm still waiting for an explanation why avg. temps have risen 0.21ºC over 30 years but MMGW is the cause of a recent 32º spike in Arctic temps on account of polar amplification.

Polar amplification explained - Polar Amplification « RealClimate

Got it. Went to skeptical science for the explanation this time just for fun. But I loved this one from your link ("Don't you read what you post?" ):

"This uncertainty in the evidence of polar amplification should not be confused with the evidence for significant warming in the Arctic. Arctic warming is both highly significant and substantial — it is just not possible to say with very high confidence yet that the Arctic has warmed more than the rest of the hemisphere or globe."

Funny, but I thought you & SailOar have been posting articles, charts & graphs which tell us that recent Arctic warming means we're all doomed?

But more to the question I asked about the 32º temperature spike, your link also gave me what I was looking for:

"Observations and models indicate that the equilibrium temperature change poleward of 70N or 70S can be a factor of two or more greater than the global average."

So again I ask, how do we get from a 0.21ºC avg global temperature increase (data you referred me to) to a 32º spike above "normal" that's attributable to polar amplification? If your answer is, as I highly suspect, that you simply don't know, then kindly stop posting nonsense doomsday information that explicitly or implicitly suggests it's all attributable to AGW. You're only making folks like conachair and others nervous.


The line between legitimate science and mere propaganda seems to be blurring.
Only to those dismissive of climate science that happens to comport with my own pre-determined opinions..
There now, being candid isn't so hard now is it?
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Old 11-05-2018, 17:20   #1012
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
I also called out Spencer and Christy for a documented history of mistakes.

I especially appreciate Spencer for these blogs
1) Time for the Slayers to Put Up or Shut Up « Roy Spencer, PhD
2) Skeptical Arguments that Don’t Hold Water « Roy Spencer, PhD

I am not sure that you have read the Cornwall Declaration. This is what it, and Spencer as a signatory, espouse:



I recommend that you spend some time exploring the Cornwall site. Here is one of Spencer's contributions:

https://cornwallalliance.org/2016/11...dodgy-science/

Here some other takes on Spencer and Cornwall:

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpre...wall-alliance/


https://www.realskeptic.com/2014/01/...igion-science/
Yup, just as I figured. You have zero evidence that Spencer has a religious-based bias which is compromising his work. Just like your other personal attacks on scientists who's opinions you disapprove of, this is merely an attempt to discredit by mere innuendo one of the more prominent skeptics based on his personal belief system & religion. And I'm sure when you become Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA, Dr. Spencer will appreciate your pointing out all of his mistakes.

But once agin you have come through with some illuminating links. Spencer's "contribution" you cite to the Cornwall Alliance (you know, where they all wear robes, light candles and chant in the dead of night ) has to be one of the most articulate & pragmatic narratives of the skeptical position I've read to date. Here's a blurb from the conclusion:

"I like to say that global warming research isn’t rocket science — it is actually much more difficult. At best it is dodgy science, because there are so many uncertainties that you can get just about any answer you want out of climate models just by using those uncertianties as a tuning knob.

The only part that is relatively settled is that adding CO2 to the atmosphere has probably contributed to recent warming. That doesn’t necessarily mean it is dangerous.

And it surely does not mean we can do anything about it… even if we wanted to."


Sorry Jack, but that's the position not only of skeptics in the science community, but I'd hazard a guess of the vast majority of ordinary citizens who are being inundated with misleadingly alarmist information. I'd suggest you get used to it. Or do you believe all of those people swear allegiance to the evil manifesto as well?

As for your other two links . . . well . . . now I see where you got your memes to try and discredit Spencer. What I don't see, however, is the long-awaited evidence that Spencer is manipulating the sat data or otherwise being swayed by his religious beliefs to distort scientific evidence. So either put up or cease & desist your libelous attacks on the man. Peace.
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Old 11-05-2018, 17:21   #1013
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Your graph (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/) and my graph both indicate a 3.2 mm /per year increase in sea level from 1993. Both measured by satellite.

What is your issue?
Aside from the decidedly linear trend of sea level rise as published by NASA during the era of satellite observations that you say is accelerating?

Nuttin' I guess.

Here's another heads up. When you see a distinct dogs leg in a graph at the point observations changed from one measuring method to another, that's a pretty good indicator that your beloved adjustments may either not have been applied, or otherwise applied incorrectly.
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Old 11-05-2018, 18:06   #1014
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Aside from the decidedly linear trend of sea level rise as published by NASA during the era of satellite observations that you say is accelerating?

Nuttin' I guess.

Here's another heads up. When you see a distinct dogs leg in a graph at the point observations changed from one measuring method to another, that's a pretty good indicator that your beloved adjustments may either not have been applied, or otherwise applied incorrectly.
Adjustments are subsidence and isostatic rebound are necessary.

Please provide evidence of malfeasance. Insinuation is not evidence.
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Old 11-05-2018, 18:15   #1015
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Please provide evidence of malfeasance. Insinuation is not evidence.
Hey, wait a minute! That's exactly what I've been saying!

Spencer & Christy discuss the evidence. You can look it up as well as I can. It's not exactly "new."
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Old 11-05-2018, 18:21   #1016
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Yup, just as I figured. You have zero evidence that Spencer has a religious-based bias which is compromising his work. Just like your other personal attacks on scientists who's opinions you disapprove of, this is merely an attempt to discredit by mere innuendo one of the more prominent skeptics based on his personal belief system & religion. And I'm sure when you become Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA, Dr. Spencer will appreciate your pointing out all of his mistakes.

But once agin you have come through with some illuminating links. Spencer's "contribution" you cite to the Cornwall Alliance (you know, where they all wear robes, light candles and chant in the dead of night ) has to be one of the most articulate & pragmatic narratives of the skeptical position I've read to date. Here's a blurb from the conclusion:

"I like to say that global warming research isn’t rocket science — it is actually much more difficult. At best it is dodgy science, because there are so many uncertainties that you can get just about any answer you want out of climate models just by using those uncertianties as a tuning knob.

The only part that is relatively settled is that adding CO2 to the atmosphere has probably contributed to recent warming. That doesn’t necessarily mean it is dangerous.

And it surely does not mean we can do anything about it… even if we wanted to."


Sorry Jack, but that's the position not only of skeptics in the science community, but I'd hazard a guess of the vast majority of ordinary citizens who are being inundated with misleadingly alarmist information. I'd suggest you get used to it. Or do you believe all of those people swear allegiance to the evil manifesto as well?

As for your other two links . . . well . . . now I see where you got your memes to try and discredit Spencer. What I don't see, however, is the long-awaited evidence that Spencer is manipulating the sat data or otherwise being swayed by his religious beliefs to distort scientific evidence. So either put up or cease & desist your libelous attacks on the man. Peace.
You asked how to decide who to consider credible. I told you some of my considerations.

You clearly have no criteria for doing so. You are the one will shallow anything to supports your contentions.

This discussion is over. Moving on to the Northwest passage.
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Old 11-05-2018, 18:48   #1017
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Adjustments are subsidence and isostatic rebound are necessary.

Please provide evidence of malfeasance. Insinuation is not evidence.
I don't need to prove anything other than show that your desire to promote your apocalyptic views outweighs your ability to validate the data you present.

From your original link regarding sea level rise...

Quote:
The paper, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, used 25 years of satellite data to find that annual rate of sea-level rise is increasing about .08 millimeters each year. Right now, we are experiencing approximately 3 millimeters of sea rise per year. Given the rate of acceleration, we should expect about 10 millimeters of sea-level rise per year by 2100.
If you want to take this discussion to a more debatable level than "you say, I say" than let's start with how a satellite with a +/- nn error margin (is it +/-4000 um? - I don't know, but apparently neither do you) can detect an alleged annual accelerating increase of 80 um?
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Old 11-05-2018, 18:51   #1018
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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You asked how to decide who to consider credible. I told you some of my considerations.

You clearly have no criteria for doing so. You are the one will shallow anything to supports your contentions.

This discussion is over. Moving on to the Northwest passage.
I see. You attempt to discredit a highly accomplished scientist from the skeptic camp by insinuating religious bias without evidence. When challenged, you are unable to support your personal attack and so announce instead that "this discussion is over." Have you suddenly become part of the moderator team?

I have criteria, but I agree it's rather ambiguous compared to yours. You've made your criteria quite clear that you will approve a climate scientist who is an evangelical Christian who supports your position on CC, but will attempt to personally discredit a similarly devout Christian who opposes it. Yup, it's now quite clear how you engage in scientific "debate."
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Old 11-05-2018, 18:57   #1019
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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. Moving on to the Northwest passage.
still frozen surface solid
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment...ation-map.html
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Old 11-05-2018, 19:04   #1020
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Not in Barrow Alaska check out the open water.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam.../current/image
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