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Old 10-05-2018, 18:26   #976
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Perhaps I wasn't clear in my responses to conachair, but I frankly don't comprehend the debate over the temp "adjustments" well enough to have an opinion. It was concerning that the original data failed to support the extent of the AGW influences you and others are relying on, especially when the "adjustments" were all in an upward direction temp-wise. Could merely be coincidental and amply supported by statistical necessity as much of the scientific community (incl. Curry) seems to concur with. There was also an analogous "adjustment" to the UAH sat data which drew ongoing suspicions from the pro-CC side as I recall. The bottom line is that the un-adjusted land-based temp data was more in line with the sat data, which in turn shows a slower rate of warming more consistent with natural forces. So it's understandable that those already predisposed towards the "fake data meme" would be suspicious. At a minimum, it seems like a bit of a fumble by the mainstream science community.
All temperature data is adjusted. It is quit clear that you have not read Zeke Hausfather's posts. Before you comment, you should comprehend.
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:28   #977
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Seeing a pattern
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:35   #978
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
A perfect example of "No shades of gray..."
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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
This particular quote appears to have come from this webpage. What you didn't include was the reference for Madam Curry's quote, which I'll do for you:

From the abstract of Woodworth (1990):

1990? Are you kidding me??

Here is a recent satellite study of sea level rise:

Sea levels rising rapidly, new satellite research shows | Deccan Chronicle
You just can't make this stuff up. Here's a thinking error. Thinking that a current paper on satellite sea level rise trumps a 1990 paper that explains that sea level has been rising for possibly the last few centuries at a relatively constant rate. Of course ignore that the crux of the quote was the reference to constant sea level rise over said last few centuries, and the link itself wasn't direct to that actual paper. But, you know, the eye sees what the mind wants it to see, I guess.

Should've clicked the "Nope" link before breaking out the pitchfork there, buddy
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:45   #979
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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All temperature data is adjusted. It is quit clear that you have not read Zeke Hausfather's posts. Before you comment, you should comprehend.
I comprehend that much if not most of climate science supports the legitimacy of the adjustments, with some notable exceptions as I recall. Is there something in your buddy Zeke's posts that alters this assertion? If so, please do tell and put an end to this unbearable suspense.
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:53   #980
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Your favourite skeptic, Judith Curry, has something to say about this
Curry is quoting a 1990 study. She is challenging that. Read the next paragraph, where she quotes a more recent study.
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:55   #981
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Seeing a pattern
Yes - different time scales. Apple and oranges.
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:57   #982
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Seeing a pattern
See a pattern when they are on the same time scale?



https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/tag/sunspots/
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:59   #983
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I comprehend that much if not most of climate science supports the legitimacy of the adjustments, with some notable exceptions as I recall. Is there something in your buddy Zeke's posts that alters this assertion? If so, please do tell and put an end to this unbearable suspense.
Zeke Hausfather explains the needs for adjustments.
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Old 10-05-2018, 19:03   #984
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Curry is quoting a 1990 study. She is challenging that. Read the next paragraph, where she quotes a more recent study.
You shoulda clicked the "Nope" link as well.
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Old 10-05-2018, 19:17   #985
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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yeah its below freezing throughout the arctic jack
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren...172.402,89.131
Great site!

The North Pole is NOT throughout the Arctic. Some parts are above freezing. And most of the sea surface temperature is above -1.8C (the freezing point).
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Old 10-05-2018, 19:18   #986
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
See a pattern when they are on the same time scale?



https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/tag/sunspots/
I give up jack your a lost cause but I still stand by my forcast for the 2108 annual temperature average
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Old 10-05-2018, 19:29   #987
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
You shoulda clicked the "Nope" link as well.
My source

Quote:
Right now, we are experiencing approximately 3 millimeters of sea rise per year.
Your source 3.2 mm per year.

Yours is shows a greater change.
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Old 10-05-2018, 19:30   #988
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I give up jack your a lost cause but I still stand by my forcast for the 2108 annual temperature average
Good - please do not respond to my posts and I will ignore yours.

BTW - a 90 year forecast is rather brave of you.
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Old 10-05-2018, 19:31   #989
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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In climatology the norm is a 30 year mean, usually based on decades. the current one would be 1981 - 2010. Check Roy Spencer's graph for verification of that.

What exactly are the natural forces that you suspect? These are the "usual suspects": solar cycles would result in cooling, Milankovitch cycles would result in cooling, we are in a La Nina event which is cooling. Since they have alibis we are looking for another suspect.

BTW - The polar amplification thesis goes back as far as Arrenhuis, 1896.
I did check Spencer's temp graph based on the 30-year average. As of April 2018 it says we are 0.21C above the 30-year average as recorded by satellites since 1979. That's about 1/5 of 1C for those who prefer fractions. So how do we get from being 0.21C above the average global temps for this time of year to a surge of 32C above "normal" in the Arctic?

Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD
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Old 10-05-2018, 19:37   #990
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I did check Spencer's temp graph based on the 30-year average. As of April 2018 it says we are 0.21C above the 30-year average as recorded by satellites since 1979. That's about 1/5 of 1C for those who prefer fractions. So how do we get from being 0.21C above the average global temps for this time of year to a surge of 32C above "normal" in the Arctic?

Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD
Two predictions were made by Arrenhuis that might be relevant

1) Polar amplification
2) The Arctic would warm faster that the Antarctic

Another prediction made later was for extreme weather conditions.

That is only part of the answer. If it was the sun, we would be cooling.
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