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Old 10-05-2018, 16:09   #961
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
And your temperature chart is pure bs
How is the graph from the BEST study pure bs?

Here is the web site - Berkeley Earth
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Old 10-05-2018, 16:15   #962
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Back to the Arctic:

https://weather.com/news/climate/vid...rmal-in-arctic
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Old 10-05-2018, 16:43   #963
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
I'm confused. Given your personal passion for the CC issue, why would you need govt. incentives (a/k/a other people subsidizing you) to do everything in your power to help the planet??
Many of the people who own "clunkers" are poor and, of necessity, need to keep their car operating until it absolutely can't run another mile. My understand was that one of the goals of the Cash for Clunkers program was to reduce the financial burden on poor people, and get poorly-running, highly-polluting cars off the road.
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Old 10-05-2018, 16:51   #964
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Ocean Heat Content rising



Global atmospheric temperatures rising



Cryosphere extent way below the mean







https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maal...e-mass-budget/



https://qz.com/1213702/a-new-nasa-im...er-every-year/

Sea level rise is accelerating



https://qz.com/1205473/sea-level-ris...nto-a-highway/
This is what happens when you start to believe the propaganda. Here's some perspectives...

Global atmospheric temperatures rising...
At a decadal rate of change of 1% of that which most regions experience in a 24 hour period, and many, many times more than seasonal veriations.

Cryosphere extent way below the mean...
Since accurate records began less than 40 years ago.

Greenland melt at 200Gt per decade...
With only 4275000Gt of ice remaining (although, thank goodness, still accumulating), this is a tragedy in the making.

Antarctic Ice melting...
Even bigger "what's left" numbers than for Greenland.

Sea level rise is accelerating...

Nope. The average since 1993 (remember this baseline year - see below) has been 3.6 mm per year. Last year the value was 3.2 mm. Your favourite skeptic, Judith Curry, has something to say about this

Quote:
In general, no evidence was found for MSL accelerations significantly different from zero over the period 1870 to the present, although non-zero accelerations were observed at individual stations. In order to extend the study to time-scales longer than a century, data from the oldest European MSL records at Brest, Sheerness, Amsterdam and Stockholm starting in 1807, 1834, 1700 and 1774, respectively, were also investigated with the result that a positive acceleration of order 04 (mm year−1) per century appears to be typical of European Atlantic coast and Baltic MSL over the last few centuries.
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Old 10-05-2018, 16:57   #965
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
yeah its below freezing throughout the arctic jack
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren...172.402,89.131
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Old 10-05-2018, 17:02   #966
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
Many of the people who own "clunkers" are poor and, of necessity, need to keep their car operating until it absolutely can't run another mile. My understand was that one of the goals of the Cash for Clunkers program was to reduce the financial burden on poor people, and get poorly-running, highly-polluting cars off the road.
More victims of CC gravy train. The car makers must be laughing all the way to the bank.

Here's what the renowned pro AGW publication the Guardian has to say about the environmental benefits of replacing motor vehicle.

What's the carbon footprint of ... a new car?

Quote:
With this in mind, unless you do very high mileage or have a real gas-guzzler, it generally makes sense to keep your old car for as long as it is reliable and to look after it carefully to extend its life as long as possible. If you make a car last to 200,000 miles rather than 100,000, then the emissions for each mile the car does in its lifetime may drop by as much as 50%, as a result of getting more distance out of the initial manufacturing emissions.
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Old 10-05-2018, 17:15   #967
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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...Sea level rise is accelerating...
Nope. The average since 1993 (remember this baseline year - see below) has been 3.6 mm per year. Last year the value was 3.2 mm. Your favourite skeptic, Judith Curry, has something to say about this
Quote:
In general, no evidence was found for MSL accelerations significantly different from zero over the period 1870 to the present, although non-zero accelerations were observed at individual stations. In order to extend the study to time-scales longer than a century, data from the oldest European MSL records at Brest, Sheerness, Amsterdam and Stockholm starting in 1807, 1834, 1700 and 1774, respectively, were also investigated with the result that a positive acceleration of order 04 (mm year−1) per century appears to be typical of European Atlantic coast and Baltic MSL over the last few centuries.
This particular quote appears to have come from this webpage. What you didn't include was the reference for Madam Curry's quote, which I'll do for you:

From the abstract of Woodworth (1990):

1990? Are you kidding me??

Here is a recent satellite study of sea level rise:

Sea levels rising rapidly, new satellite research shows | Deccan Chronicle

Quote:
At the current rate, the world's oceans on average will be at least 2 feet (61 centimeters) higher by the end of the century compared to today, according a study published in Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences.

Sea level rise is caused by warming of the ocean and melting from glaciers and ice sheets. The research, based on 25 years of satellite data, shows that pace has quickened, mainly from the melting of massive ice sheets. It confirms scientists' computer simulations and is in line with predictions from the United Nations, which releases regular climate change reports...

Of the 3 inches (7.5 centimeters) of sea level rise in the past quarter century, about 55 percent is from warmer water expanding, and the rest is from melting ice. But the process is accelerating, and more than three-quarters of that acceleration since 1993 is due to melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, the study shows.

"It's a big deal" because the projected sea level rise is a conservative estimate and it is likely to be higher, said lead author Steve Nerem of the University of Colorado...
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Old 10-05-2018, 17:18   #968
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
...Here's what the renowned pro AGW publication the Guardian has to say about the environmental benefits of replacing motor vehicle.

What's the carbon footprint of ... a new car?

Quote:
With this in mind, unless you do very high mileage or have a real gas-guzzler, it generally makes sense to keep your old car for as long as it is reliable – and to look after it carefully to extend its life as long as possible. If you make a car last to 200,000 miles rather than 100,000, then the emissions for each mile the car does in its lifetime may drop by as much as 50%, as a result of getting more distance out of the initial manufacturing emissions.
Agreed. Both of my cars have over 230K miles on them. Both were acquired used. I let someone else absorb the huge first-year depreciation.
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Old 10-05-2018, 17:25   #969
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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You made a reference to data manipulation in your and then presented a link to Curry's blog. If I misunderstood, I apologize.

My boilerplate response is one I wrote some time ago to deal with the "faked data" meme that I often encounter.



I actually agree with Curry on this issue and several others.
Perhaps I wasn't clear in my responses to conachair, but I frankly don't comprehend the debate over the temp "adjustments" well enough to have an opinion. It was concerning that the original data failed to support the extent of the AGW influences you and others are relying on, especially when the "adjustments" were all in an upward direction temp-wise. Could merely be coincidental and amply supported by statistical necessity as much of the scientific community (incl. Curry) seems to concur with. There was also an analogous "adjustment" to the UAH sat data which drew ongoing suspicions from the pro-CC side as I recall. The bottom line is that the un-adjusted land-based temp data was more in line with the sat data, which in turn shows a slower rate of warming more consistent with natural forces. So it's understandable that those already predisposed towards the "fake data meme" would be suspicious. At a minimum, it seems like a bit of a fumble by the mainstream science community.
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Old 10-05-2018, 17:48   #970
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
Many of the people who own "clunkers" are poor and, of necessity, need to keep their car operating until it absolutely can't run another mile. My understand was that one of the goals of the Cash for Clunkers program was to reduce the financial burden on poor people, and get poorly-running, highly-polluting cars off the road.
I am sure you are correct, but the cash-for-clunkers program has nothing to do with your taking personal responsibility for your carbon emissions. But this seems to follow from those who are ringing alarm bells the loudest. I guess it's a "do as I say and not as I do" sort of mentality.

In your case, you post about the environmental virtues (and affordability) of electric cars but are unwilling to take that step without a financial incentive from your fellow taxpayers. But somehow it's morally acceptable to demand carbon taxes from people poorer than you who's use of fossil fuels is much more of a necessity rather than a luxury. I understand and appreciate your concerns over the environment, but isn't your approach rather selfish and morally suspect?

Here's some further insight into this rather odd if not hypocritical phenomenon (from a psych journal if it makes you feel better).

https://www.investors.com/politics/e...r-study-finds/
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Old 10-05-2018, 17:59   #971
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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This is a great example of why many remain skeptical. The headline reads "Temps Soar 35 Degrees Above Normal in Arctic."

Questions:

1. What's "normal?" 35 admittedly sounds extreme even if "normal" is based on a centuries old trend line, but it begs the question how "normal" such temp spikes are, how often they've occurred in the past, and what causes them.

All of which leads to . . .

2. What are the historical outer limits of the Arctic amplification effect? Even based on the 30-year temp increases shown in the graphs you've presented, we're looking at low single digit increases. Can a 32 increase really be attributed to "amplification" or are there natural forces (as I suspect) causing the recent surges?
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:15   #972
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
This is a great example of why many remain skeptical. The headline reads "Temps Soar 35 Degrees Above Normal in Arctic."

Questions:

1. What's "normal?" 35 admittedly sounds extreme even if "normal" is based on a centuries old trend line, but it begs the question how "normal" such temp spikes are, how often they've occurred in the past, and what causes them.

All of which leads to . . .

2. What are the historical outer limits of the Arctic amplification effect? Even based on the 30-year temp increases shown in the graphs you've presented, we're looking at low single digit increases. Can a 32 increase really be attributed to "amplification" or are there natural forces (as I suspect) causing the recent surges?
not actually unheard of it has happens many times in the past around the solar minimum years.
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:17   #973
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
This particular quote appears to have come from this webpage. What you didn't include was the reference for Madam Curry's quote, which I'll do for you:

From the abstract of Woodworth (1990):

1990? Are you kidding me??

Here is a recent satellite study of sea level rise:

Sea levels rising rapidly, new satellite research shows | Deccan Chronicle
Yes great observant one. I get 2017 values from 1990 data.
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:19   #974
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
This is a great example of why many remain skeptical. The headline reads "Temps Soar 35 Degrees Above Normal in Arctic."

Questions:

1. What's "normal?" 35 admittedly sounds extreme even if "normal" is based on a centuries old trend line, but it begs the question how "normal" such temp spikes are, how often they've occurred in the past, and what causes them.

All of which leads to . . .

2. What are the historical outer limits of the Arctic amplification effect? Even based on the 30-year temp increases shown in the graphs you've presented, we're looking at low single digit increases. Can a 32 increase really be attributed to "amplification" or are there natural forces (as I suspect) causing the recent surges?
In climatology the norm is a 30 year mean, usually based on decades. the current one would be 1981 - 2010. Check Roy Spencer's graph for verification of that.

What exactly are the natural forces that you suspect? These are the "usual suspects": solar cycles would result in cooling, Milankovitch cycles would result in cooling, we are in a La Nina event which is cooling. Since they have alibis we are looking for another suspect.

BTW - The polar amplification thesis goes back as far as Arrenhuis, 1896.
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Old 10-05-2018, 18:22   #975
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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not actually unheard of it has happens many times in the past around the solar minimum years.
Please provide the observations that support your assertion. A Pearson Product Moment Correlation would satisfy me. Easily done in Excel.
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