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Old 10-05-2018, 10:44   #946
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Yep - that wraps it up.

Tropics - cherry picked.

Solar activity - declining

Global temperatures - long term increase.
solar declining and all temperatures are declining as well
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Old 10-05-2018, 11:12   #947
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Another good example of the impact of one-sided media saturation. A rapid recent spike based on which data, land/sea based or satellite? And a spike compared to what time frame?
Oh come off it, the planet is getting warmer quickly, that's not in the slightest scientifically contentious. How much data do you want? It's everywhere, air temperatures rising, sea heat content rising, animal migration times changing, flora growing at higher elevations.. all solid science and pretty much universally accepted that it's not business as usual. The only real discussion in science seems to be not *if* but just how much is down to humans changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere.

So where are the opposing scientific theories to explain this you mentioned...
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Old 10-05-2018, 11:30   #948
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Yep - that wraps it up.

Tropics - cherry picked.

Solar activity - declining

Global temperatures - long term increase.
how is using a long term graph of the sst in the tropics cherry picking. It shows the warming or cooling of the sea surface in the region where it is most prevalent .
This is where the oceans get their most solar based heating. Then it migrates to the rest of the world via the PDO and the AMOC.
I fail to get your cherry picked statement. From the graph which covers the tropics region from 1979 to present.
Explain your statement of cherry picked
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Old 10-05-2018, 11:37   #949
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
solar declining and all temperatures are declining as well
Ocean Heat Content rising



Global atmospheric temperatures rising



Cryosphere extent way below the mean





Quote:
satellites measuring the (Greenland) ice sheet mass have observed a loss of around 200 Gt/year over the last decade.
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maal...e-mass-budget/

Quote:
New data analysis confirms what scientists have suspected for a while now: West Antarctic ice melt is speeding up.
https://qz.com/1213702/a-new-nasa-im...er-every-year/

Sea level rise is accelerating

Quote:
A study published today (Feb. 12) used satellite data to confirm the predictions of the best climate computer models: The global average sea level is not rising by a steady increment each year, but is accelerating.
https://qz.com/1205473/sea-level-ris...nto-a-highway/
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Old 10-05-2018, 11:39   #950
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
how is using a long term graph of the sst in the tropics cherry picking. It shows the warming or cooling of the sea surface in the region where it is most prevalent .
This is where the oceans get their most solar based heating. Then it migrates to the rest of the world via the PDO and the AMOC.
I fail to get your cherry picked statement. From the graph which covers the tropics region from 1979 to present.
Explain your statement of cherry picked
Global Ocean Heat Content

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Old 10-05-2018, 11:42   #951
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Global Ocean Heat Content

jack the only source I find for that graph that is reliable is the nsidc and this report is well over a year old at best I have shown current data which shows the cooling of the oceans.
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Old 10-05-2018, 11:44   #952
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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jack the only source I find for that graph that is reliable is the nsidc and this report is well over a year old at best I have shown current data which shows the cooling of the oceans.
December 2017 is not a year old. Learn to read.
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Old 10-05-2018, 11:56   #953
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY View Post
Isn't it interesting to see how good Marketing and Social Group Think can be used to make people believe something that just scientifically isn't true. There are really people out there that believe they are better people who love their Children and the Planet more because they drive an electric car. When in fact they were manipulated by the Industrial Marketing Complex...
It appears that you no longer can honestly make the claim that BEVs (Battery Powered Electric Vehicles) have a larger carbon footprint than conventional automobiles.

Electric cars emit 50% less greenhouse gas than diesel, study finds | The Guardian
Quote:
Researchers calculated the total lifecycle emissions of an electric car, including its manufacture, battery manufacture, and all of its energy consumption.

Electric cars emit significantly less greenhouse gases over their lifetimes than diesel engines even when they are powered by the most carbon intensive energy, a new report has found.
Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave: How Electric Cars Beat Gasoline Cars on Lifetime Global Warming Emissions | Union of Concern Scientists
Quote:
From cradle to grave, BEVs are cleaner.
On average, BEVs representative of those sold today produce less
than half the global warming emissions of comparable gasoline-powered vehicles, even when the higher emissions associated with BEV manufacturing are taken into consideration. Based on modeling of the two most popular BEVs available today and the regions where they are currently being sold, excess manufacturing emissions are offset within 6 to 16 months of average driving....
Personal Vehicles Evaluated against Climate Change Mitigation Targets | ACS Publications
Quote:
Abstract
Meeting global climate change mitigation goals will likely require that transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions begin to decline within the next two decades and then continue to fall. A variety of vehicle technologies and fuels are commercially available to consumers today that can reduce the emissions of the transportation sector. Yet what are the best options, and do any suffice to meet climate policy targets? Here, we examine the costs and carbon intensities of 125 light-duty vehicle models on the U.S. market today and evaluate these models against U.S. emission-reduction targets for 2030, 2040, and 2050 that are compatible with the goal of limiting mean global temperature rise to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Our results show that consumers are not required to pay more for a low-carbon-emitting vehicle. Across the diverse set of vehicle models and powertrain technologies examined, a clean vehicle is usually a low-cost vehicle. Although the average carbon intensity of vehicles sold in 2014 exceeds the climate target for 2030 by more than 50%, we find that most hybrid and battery electric vehicles available today meet this target. By 2050, only electric vehicles supplied with almost completely carbon-free electric power are expected to meet climate-policy targets.

See Also:

Electricity carbon intensity in European Member States: Impacts on GHG emissions of electric vehicles | Science Direct

From cradle to grave: e-mobility and the French energy transition | European Climate . org
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Old 10-05-2018, 12:50   #954
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by conachair View Post
Oh come off it, the planet is getting warmer quickly, that's not in the slightest scientifically contentious. How much data do you want? It's everywhere, air temperatures rising, sea heat content rising, animal migration times changing, flora growing at higher elevations.. all solid science and pretty much universally accepted that it's not business as usual. The only real discussion in science seems to be not *if* but just how much is down to humans changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere.

Exactly. And exactly what I wrote in my post which I copied below. Then again, Newhaul has been posting evidence that the planet is actually cooling, and that the data showing warming has been manipulated. It's certainly true that some parts of the planet have been getting warmer, but how "quick" necessarily requires a comparison to a baseline. Do you have evidence that the rate of warming you speak of is unprecedented, for example? If not, then how can you honestly characterize it as a "spike" without simply parroting the MSM and pro-CC journalists?

So where are the opposing scientific theories to explain this you mentioned...
https://judithcurry.com

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Another good example of the impact of one-sided media saturation. A rapid recent spike based on which data, land/sea based or satellite? And a spike compared to what time frame? It doesn't seem to be a question of a "smoking gun," but rather how much AGW is influencing temps as compared to natural forces. There are scientists who theorize that we should be in a cooling phase so any long-term warming trend must be attributable to AGW. There are others who theorize that we are still in the warming trend that started after the so-called LIA, so we must look harder to determine how much warming is attributable to each. And then there's the amplifying effect in the Arctic as Jack has mentioned many times, but that applies regardless of the source of the warming.

Climate scientists are apparently still working on methodologies to more accurately determine historical temps in the Arctic and elsewhere to have more scientifically sound bases of comparison. Correct me if I'm wrong, and notwithstanding all the media hype, but it doesn't seem like recent spikes up or down have much bearing on the big picture issues.
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Old 10-05-2018, 12:53   #955
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

So have you traded in your 15 and 20 year-old cars yet? Or at least upgraded to newer models which have cleaner emissions? After all, one of your quotes says that electric vehicles are very affordable.
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Old 10-05-2018, 12:55   #956
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Interesting that you reference Judith Curry while discussing "data manipulation".

Because many folks have no clue about temperature adjustments. Judith Curry and Steve Mosher, both well-known skeptics, have commented on this. Curry asked Zeke Hausfather to post some commentary on her blog.

Judith Curry, a skeptic and one of Inhofe's favorites, has published three discussions of temperature adjustments.

"There has been much discussion of temperature adjustment of late in both climate blogs and in the media, but not much background on what specific adjustments are being made, why they are being made, and what effects they have. Adjustments have a big effect on temperature trends in the U.S., and a modest effect on global land trends. The large contribution of adjustments to century-scale U.S. temperature trends lends itself to an unfortunate narrative that “government bureaucrats are cooking the books”."



Figure 1. Global (left) and CONUS (right) homogenized and raw data from NCDC and Berkeley Earth. Series are aligned relative to 1990-2013 means. NCDC data is from GHCN v3.2 and USHCN v2.5 respectively.

http://judithcurry.com/2014/07/07/un...perature-data/

http://judithcurry.com/2015/02/09/be...perature-data/

http://judithcurry.com/2015/02/22/un...ervation-bias/

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To which I would add a comment from Steve Mosher, the skeptic who published the Climategate letters.

Christopher Booker win’s the irony of the year award with his piece on adjustments to the temperature record. That’s quite a feat considering it’s only February. His complaint overlooks the clear historical fact that skeptics, above all others, have made the loudest case for the need to adjust the temperature series. Over the years, it’s been skeptics, who have made a vocal case for adjustments . More disturbing is the claim that these adjustments are somehow criminal. We dealt with these type of claims before and completely debunked them.

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpre...d-adjustments/

++++++++++++++++++++++++

A denialist pointed me to this site.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/...perature-data/

++++++++++++++++++++++

In an interview with E&E News, former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration principal scientist John Bates had a significantly more nuanced take on the controversy that has swirled since a top House Republican hailed his blog post as proof that the agency "played fast and loose" with temperature data to disprove the theory of a global warming "pause."
Bates accused former colleagues of rushing their research to publication, in defiance of agency protocol. He specified that he did not believe that they manipulated the data upon which the research relied in any way.
"The issue here is not an issue of tampering with data, but rather really of timing of a release of a paper that had not properly disclosed everything it was," he said.
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Old 10-05-2018, 13:08   #957
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
So have you traded in your 15 and 20 year-old cars yet? Or at least upgraded to newer models which have cleaner emissions? After all, one of your quotes says that electric vehicles are very affordable.
Perhaps you know about the information site Cash For Clunkers, which seeks to remove the worst polluting cars off the road. I keep my cars in good enough condition that my state's incentives didn't work for me.

My brother has two BEVs, but he told me that once one of them goes off-lease he will replace it with a hybrid, because he needs at least one car that has the greater range that gas-powered vehicles have, and BEVs don't have (yet).
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Old 10-05-2018, 15:00   #958
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Interesting that you reference Judith Curry while discussing "data manipulation".

Because many folks have no clue about temperature adjustments. Judith Curry and Steve Mosher, both well-known skeptics, have commented on this. Curry asked Zeke Hausfather to post some commentary on her blog.

Judith Curry, a skeptic and one of Inhofe's favorites, has published three discussions of temperature adjustments.

"There has been much discussion of temperature adjustment of late in both climate blogs and in the media, but not much background on what specific adjustments are being made, why they are being made, and what effects they have. Adjustments have a big effect on temperature trends in the U.S., and a modest effect on global land trends. The large contribution of adjustments to century-scale U.S. temperature trends lends itself to an unfortunate narrative that “government bureaucrats are cooking the books”."



Figure 1. Global (left) and CONUS (right) homogenized and raw data from NCDC and Berkeley Earth. Series are aligned relative to 1990-2013 means. NCDC data is from GHCN v3.2 and USHCN v2.5 respectively.

http://judithcurry.com/2014/07/07/un...perature-data/

http://judithcurry.com/2015/02/09/be...perature-data/

http://judithcurry.com/2015/02/22/un...ervation-bias/

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To which I would add a comment from Steve Mosher, the skeptic who published the Climategate letters.

Christopher Booker win’s the irony of the year award with his piece on adjustments to the temperature record. That’s quite a feat considering it’s only February. His complaint overlooks the clear historical fact that skeptics, above all others, have made the loudest case for the need to adjust the temperature series. Over the years, it’s been skeptics, who have made a vocal case for adjustments . More disturbing is the claim that these adjustments are somehow criminal. We dealt with these type of claims before and completely debunked them.

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpre...d-adjustments/

++++++++++++++++++++++++

A denialist pointed me to this site.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/...perature-data/

++++++++++++++++++++++

In an interview with E&E News, former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration principal scientist John Bates had a significantly more nuanced take on the controversy that has swirled since a top House Republican hailed his blog post as proof that the agency "played fast and loose" with temperature data to disprove the theory of a global warming "pause."
Bates accused former colleagues of rushing their research to publication, in defiance of agency protocol. He specified that he did not believe that they manipulated the data upon which the research relied in any way.
"The issue here is not an issue of tampering with data, but rather really of timing of a release of a paper that had not properly disclosed everything it was," he said.
I wasn't the one discussing data manipulation. Ask Third Day about it, among others.

I've seen the boilerplate response you posted above several times before, and your incessant name-dropping (as if anyone on this thread but you knows or cares) fails to impress. Nor does the lame attempt to tarnish Judith Curry's opinions by associating her with your personal arch-nemesis politician in Congress. If you do not have the knowledge or expertise to counter Curry's theories on the merits then you clearly need more study. As you like to dictate to others, please learn to read. Maybe then you'll be able to participate in a constructive debate beyond the high school level.
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Old 10-05-2018, 15:04   #959
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
Perhaps you know about the information site Cash For Clunkers, which seeks to remove the worst polluting cars off the road. I keep my cars in good enough condition that my state's incentives didn't work for me.

My brother has two BEVs, but he told me that once one of them goes off-lease he will replace it with a hybrid, because he needs at least one car that has the greater range that gas-powered vehicles have, and BEVs don't have (yet).
I'm confused. Given your personal passion for the CC issue, why would you need govt. incentives (a/k/a other people subsidizing you) to do everything in your power to help the planet??
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Old 10-05-2018, 15:36   #960
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
I wasn't the one discussing data manipulation. Ask Third Day about it, among others.

I've seen the boilerplate response you posted above several times before, and your incessant name-dropping (as if anyone on this thread but you knows or cares) fails to impress. Nor does the lame attempt to tarnish Judith Curry's opinions by associating her with your personal arch-nemesis politician in Congress. If you do not have the knowledge or expertise to counter Curry's theories on the merits then you clearly need more study. As you like to dictate to others, please learn to read. Maybe then you'll be able to participate in a constructive debate beyond the high school level.
You made a reference to data manipulation in your and then presented a link to Curry's blog. If I misunderstood, I apologize.

My boilerplate response is one I wrote some time ago to deal with the "faked data" meme that I often encounter.



I actually agree with Curry on this issue and several others.
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