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Old 01-03-2018, 13:52   #76
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maximum Arctic sea ice extent typically occurs in March


Red - 2018
Blue - 2017
Dashed - 2012 (record year)



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Old 01-03-2018, 15:36   #77
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Meanwhile the arctic sea ice is getting thicker by the day.

Now it is thinning, which it should not be doing until mid-April

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Old 01-03-2018, 15:52   #78
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Now it is thinning, which it should not be doing until mid-April

likely lack of adequate readings due to storms there now not melting. Ice melts from the bottom up this time of year ( if it melts) and I suspect the satellites are having issues due to conditions.( assure from the fact they can't measure beyond the 5 meter point with accuracy.
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Old 01-03-2018, 15:56   #79
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Average global temp for February is down . Its now just .2℃ above the mean average and falling. Down from .26 above mean in January. That's from the UAH readings ( yes that's global mean)
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Old 01-03-2018, 16:13   #80
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Average global temp for February is down . Its now just .2℃ above the mean average and falling. Down from .26 above mean in January. That's from the UAH readings ( yes that's global mean)
it is called a La Nina.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Rather common after a El Nino. The La Nina is forecast to decay in the next few months.
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Old 01-03-2018, 16:22   #81
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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it is called a La Nina.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Rather common after a El Nino. The La Nina is forecast to decay in the next few months.
La Nina adjusted out Jack
What didn't think I would remember that?
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Old 01-03-2018, 16:54   #82
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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La Nina adjusted out Jack
What didn't think I would remember that?
UAH does not adjust for ENSO.

Version 6.0 of the UAH Temperature Dataset Released: New LT Trend = +0.11 C/decade « Roy Spencer, PhD
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Old 01-03-2018, 17:43   #83
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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if you are going to quote Dr Spencer at least quote the latest from Roy.
Roy Spencer, PhD
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Old 01-03-2018, 18:14   #84
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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if you are going to quote Dr Spencer at least quote the latest from Roy.
Roy Spencer, PhD
Oh Look



A 1997-98 El Nino followed by a La Nina. At 2010 El Nino followed by a La Nina. A 2016 El Nino followed by a La Nina.

I gave you Spencer's parameters for v6.0 of the UAH dataset - the most current one.
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Old 02-03-2018, 19:46   #85
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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There is open water north of #Greenland where the thickest sea ice of the #Arctic used to be. It is not refreezing quickly because air temperatures are above zero confirmed by @dmidk's weather station #KapMorrisJesup. Wacky weather continues with scary strength and persistence.
https://twitter.com/seaice_de/status/967679640402874369

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Old 05-03-2018, 17:28   #86
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Climate Change Has Brought The Arctic's Spring Forward 16 Days In Just 10 Years | IFLScience

According to a new study published in the journal Scientific Reports, the Arctic spring is occurring 16 days earlier than it did 10 years ago. In fact, the research suggests that for every 10 degrees north of the equator you go, spring comes an average of four days earlier. That means that those in Los Angeles will likely experience spring just a day earlier than a decade ago, while those in Chicago or Washington DC will see it arrive about four days early.
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Old 05-03-2018, 19:25   #87
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Climate Change Has Brought The Arctic's Spring Forward 16 Days In Just 10 Years | IFLScience

According to a new study published in the journal Scientific Reports, the Arctic spring is occurring 16 days earlier than it did 10 years ago. In fact, the research suggests that for every 10 degrees north of the equator you go, spring comes an average of four days earlier. That means that those in Los Angeles will likely experience spring just a day earlier than a decade ago, while those in Chicago or Washington DC will see it arrive about four days early.

Alternatively, cherry blossom as another Spring proxy:


Note how it appears to show the 60's to 70's cool period

And on the other side of the world, the Japanese figures from https://www.jnto.go.jp/sakura/eng/city.php?CI=10 attached show no change over the last 10 years. (see attachment)



As for the articles claim of 16 days over the last 10 years, that is NOT supported in any way be the referenced paper. It's clear that the reporter has not even read the referenced paper!

The data on which the paper is based:
These trends span a latitudinal gradient from 31.9N to 74.5N, and encompass studies beginning between 1928 and 2002 and ending between 1978 and 2013."
and "

First, we analyzed trends in temperature anomalies for the boreal spring at 1 latitudinal increments over the entire period, from 1928 through 2010, and then for successively more recent periods in one-decade intervals (i.e., 1938–2010, 1948–2010, 1958–2010, 1968–2010, 1978–2010, 1988–2010, and 1998–2010)."

So this re-analysis covers neither "the Arctic" nor "the last 10 years".

It would appear that the whole articel is based on a complete misunderstand of this illustration from the paper
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Old 05-03-2018, 21:18   #88
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
Alternatively, cherry blossom as another Spring proxy:


Note how it appears to show the 60's to 70's cool period

And on the other side of the world, the Japanese figures from https://www.jnto.go.jp/sakura/eng/city.php?CI=10 attached show no change over the last 10 years. (see attachment)



As for the articles claim of 16 days over the last 10 years, that is NOT supported in any way be the referenced paper. It's clear that the reporter has not even read the referenced paper!

The data on which the paper is based:
These trends span a latitudinal gradient from 31.9N to 74.5N, and encompass studies beginning between 1928 and 2002 and ending between 1978 and 2013."
and "

First, we analyzed trends in temperature anomalies for the boreal spring at 1 latitudinal increments over the entire period, from 1928 through 2010, and then for successively more recent periods in one-decade intervals (i.e., 1938–2010, 1948–2010, 1958–2010, 1968–2010, 1978–2010, 1988–2010, and 1998–2010)."

So this re-analysis covers neither "the Arctic" nor "the last 10 years".

It would appear that the whole articel is based on a complete misunderstand of this illustration from the paper
thanks StuM we gotta keep em honest.
I got tired of being called names
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Old 05-03-2018, 21:21   #89
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
Climate Change Has Brought The Arctic's Spring Forward 16 Days In Just 10 Years | IFLScience

According to a new study published in the journal Scientific Reports, the Arctic spring is occurring 16 days earlier than it did 10 years ago. In fact, the research suggests that for every 10 degrees north of the equator you go, spring comes an average of four days earlier. That means that those in Los Angeles will likely experience spring just a day earlier than a decade ago, while those in Chicago or Washington DC will see it arrive about four days early.

one of the biggies I saw was the bs about polar bears needing ice to hunt well that's just not the case.
https://www.thegwpf.com/susan-crockf...-theyre-dying/
I would rather listen to an actual zoologist that studies them.
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Old 06-03-2018, 14:30   #90
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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....[/I]So this re-analysis covers neither "the Arctic" ...
Many people consider the Arctic to be anything north of the Arctic Circle. The Arctic Circle is at about 67 degrees latitude, and the study included temperature records as far north as 74 degrees latitude. So it's not clear why you claim the study doesn't include arctic regions?

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....[/I]So this re-analysis covers neither....nor "the last 10 years".
Since the last temperature records studied ended in 2010, I'll concede that technically you are correct. However, by all accounts, the Arctic has continued to warm at an increasing rate since 2010, so it is entirely plausible that the trend identified in the study up to 2010 can assume to have continued since then.

Some of the data I'm using to conclude that the Arctic is continuing to warm at an increasing rate include --

In four of the last seven years since 2010 Arctic Sea Ice extent has been less than that of 2010. And those years were all record-breaking years since satellite record-keeping commenced in about 1980. And probably these last 10 years have been less than anytime in the last 100 years, and possible less than anytime in the last 10,000 years.

February 2018 just set the record for the lowest MAXIMUM sea ice extent, for the month of February, since satellite record-keeping began.
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