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Old 01-05-2018, 21:46   #781
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Here is a fairly new report.
https://niclewis.files.wordpress.com...7_accepted.pdf
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Old 02-05-2018, 03:40   #782
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Re: Another item for your bucket list

It's interesting that they show the Arctic ocean to be mostly white, like land masses, meaning that it currently is not navigable. I wonder if, in a few decades, the Arctic ocean were to be seasonably open to navigation, whether there would be a longer straight-line ocean route through the Arctic ocean than the one that was identified? If so I suspect it would have to be through the Bering Strait and the Fram Strait -- and I don't think you can quite connect those two with a Great Arc.
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Old 02-05-2018, 03:47   #783
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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We briefly discussed that study here, here, here, and here.
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Old 02-05-2018, 03:58   #784
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018







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The 2018 winter sea ice maximum has passed, and the melt season has begun. The most notable aspect of the 2017 to 2018 winter ice extent was the persistently low ice extent in the Bering Sea. While December, January, and February were characterized by very warm conditions over the Arctic, March temperatures were mixed, with cool conditions over the Eurasian side and moderately warm conditions over the North American side.

2018 winter Arctic sea ice: Bering down | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis
It looks like sea ice volume has just about peaked for this season.
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:06   #785
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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We briefly discussed that study here, here, here, and here.
my bad .
We have covers so many topics I forget sometimes what specifically was posted .
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:13   #786
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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It looks like sea ice volume has just about peaked for this season.
as to the extent it is about as expected . Close to the median on the Atlantic side . Low on the pacific side as expected due to the north pacific winter storm tracks pushing ice edges back into the arctic. As far as the volume we shall see how it goes .
I predict a high volume at the end of the summer " melt " season .
Btw we are well within the multi decadal deviation range.
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Old 02-05-2018, 17:24   #787
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

I have honestly enjoyed reading this discussion, and am very impressed by the (mostly) respectful nature of the debate on both sides and in-between. Well done. Seriously.

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As a thought experiment, if all the Arctic sea ice were to melt (and nothing else changed), would the sea level rise, stay the same, or fall?
I know I'm late to the party, but could I vote for a very small RISE, based upon the simple physics? (ice being fresh water floating on salt water, causing almost 3% more of it's volume to be above sea level than if it was floating in fresh water) However, I freely acknowledge that extra snow, liquid expansion and bear poop were not included in the simple math.

I AM curious about the FLOATING ice fascination regarding sea level, though. The Northwest Passage consideration makes sense, but- global warming? Hmm.
Can I humbly ask... why the big interest in a few cm of potential sea level change cause by melting all the FLOATING ice, if melting all the LAND ice would be more like dozens of meters of change?
Just wondering...
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Old 02-05-2018, 18:21   #788
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I have honestly enjoyed reading this discussion, and am very impressed by the (mostly) respectful nature of the debate on both sides and in-between. Well done. Seriously.
Welcome to the thread, Cyan. Glad you're enjoying it.
Quote:
I know I'm late to the party, but could I vote for a very small RISE, based upon the simple physics? (ice being fresh water floating on salt water, causing almost 3% more of it's volume to be above sea level than if it was floating in fresh water) However, I freely acknowledge that extra snow, liquid expansion and bear poop were not included in the simple math.
Based on the two scientific studies mentioned earlier, I agree with you.
Quote:
I AM curious about the FLOATING ice fascination regarding sea level, though. The Northwest Passage consideration makes sense, but- global warming? Hmm.
Can I humbly ask... why the big interest in a few cm of potential sea level change cause by melting all the FLOATING ice, if melting all the LAND ice would be more like dozens of meters of change?
Just wondering...
As I said when I posted the question, it was just an intellectual exercise, meant to relieve the tension from some of our earlier disputes. But I agree with you, to us wanna-be NWP sailors, a few cm of ocean rise means very little. But apparently to those scientists who are trying to understand and account for all sea level change factors, it is important.
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Old 02-05-2018, 18:35   #789
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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As I said when I posted the question, it was just an intellectual exercise, meant to relieve the tension from some of our earlier disputes.
I like that!
Here's a pseudo-intellectual exercise...
If we removed all of the ships from all of the seas... how much would sea levels fall?

A. 4 meters
B. 4 cm
C. 0.001 mm
D. None. Sea levels would rise because the land would sink.
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Old 02-05-2018, 18:37   #790
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by cyan View Post
I like that!
Here's a pseudo-intellectual exercise...
If we removed all of the ships from all of the seas... how much would sea levels fall?

A. 4 meters
B. 4 cm
C. 0.001 mm
D. None. Sea levels would rise because the land would sink.
are you talking about all the ships or just the ones that are still floating?
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Old 02-05-2018, 18:53   #791
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Good one. Floating.
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Old 02-05-2018, 19:00   #792
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Had to ask there are hundred of billion tons of steel on the bottom just from ww2 let alone everything else
Being a shipwright I would bazaars a guess 4 meters would be on the low side.
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Old 02-05-2018, 19:49   #793
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Northwest Passage - 2018

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Had to ask there are hundred of billion tons of steel on the bottom just from ww2 let alone everything else
Being a shipwright I would bazaars a guess 4 meters would be on the low side.
Wow, that is a lot on the bottom.
Currently Floating? Well, I saw recent numbers that did not require a calculator. Not sure if this is the universe trying to tell us something...

360 million displacement tons, mostly containers and other cargo
(1 ton sea water roughly = 1 cubic meter)
360 million square km ocean area on earth
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Old 02-05-2018, 21:00   #794
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by cyan View Post
Wow, that is a lot on the bottom.
Currently Floating? Well, I saw recent numbers that did not require a calculator. Not sure if this is the universe trying to tell us something...

360 million displacement tons, mostly containers and other cargo
(1 ton sea water roughly = 1 cubic meter)
360 million square km ocean area on earth
Here are a couple of the more well known the tamari at 71,700 tons
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japa...tleship_Yamato
USS arizona bb39 32,000 tons
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Arizona_(BB-39)
and there were tens of thousands more ships sunk .
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Old 02-05-2018, 23:09   #795
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Here are a couple of the more well known the tamari at 71,700 tons
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japa...tleship_Yamato
USS arizona bb39 32,000 tons
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Arizona_(BB-39)
and there were tens of thousands more ships sunk .
Serious stuff, although a floating steel battleship that displaces 71,700 tons might only displace less than 10,000 tons of seawater when at the bottom.

I suppose the 1 micron sea level rise caused by currently floating ships might be more like 2 or 3 microns when you add up the tens of thousands....
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