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Old 27-04-2018, 09:38   #706
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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no it is not the view adopted by any in the CC community that still depends on grants to feed their families.
I'm sure not, but was wondering about other qualified scientists who may hold the view. I don't necessarily doubt anything at this point, but I'm not sure I've come across this one yet.
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Old 27-04-2018, 09:43   #707
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Good catch except this sort of tentative language is all over the pro-CC literature as well. Climate science has a lot of uncertainties no matter the position taken, perhaps because the data only reliably goes back so far.
they have data that goes back further however it does not support the narrative.
There is satellite data from well before the 1979 start date of the stated satellite monitoring start year. Heck if memory serves Sailoar is the one that posted the link in one of these threads. I will repost it when I find it in my archives.
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Old 27-04-2018, 09:53   #708
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Ok I found the link
https://nsidc.org/about/monthlyhighl...f-sea-ice-past
I look forward to when they release a full composite of recovered arctic ice photographs .
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Old 27-04-2018, 10:01   #709
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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You asked for a comparison - the PETM is often used.



https://www.wunderground.com/climate/PETM
Certainly looks compelling, even though the article mentions the uncertainties surrounding the PETM. But I agree there are modern-day symptoms that suggest cause & effect, including warming. And the differing rates of CO2 that have been released then vs. now sounds significant. But the question is not so much the warming per se but rather how much is attributable to CO2? To be convincing, I think the mainstream science you advocate for has to do a better job of addressing other scientific views from credible sources, and resist substituting accusations of bias, etc. for real scientific debate.
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Old 27-04-2018, 11:22   #710
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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....Curry et al. believe there has been warming the past 200 years or so (since the LIA), and theorize that the amount attributable to fossil fuel burning is significantly overstated. If true, then that suggests that natural influences are more to blame, and we could in fact be in a "natural warming cycle" that is being amplified to some degree by human influences....
Given that the recent precipitous rise in temperatures seems to be a geophysical anomaly --




(posted by JackDale)

-- and also given that a host of natural factors, plus a number of human factors, appear to well explain the recent precipitous rise in temperatures--


(as posted by Jackdale)

-- what are these "natural influences [that Curry thinks] are more to blame"?
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Old 27-04-2018, 11:48   #711
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
Given that the recent precipitous rise in temperatures seems to be a geophysical anomaly --




(posted by JackDale)

-- and also given that a host of natural factors, plus a number of human factors, appear to well explain the recent precipitous rise in temperatures--


(as posted by Jackdale)

-- what are these "natural influences [that Curry thinks] are more to blame"?
how about the solar maxims of the last 10 cycles ( from cycle 15 to present)
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Old 27-04-2018, 11:50   #712
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Looking at cycle 23 / 24 minimum to present explains the current cooling of the planet.
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Old 27-04-2018, 13:05   #713
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Looking at cycle 23 / 24 minimum to present explains the current cooling of the planet.
Solar cycle 23 began in 1996. Here is a plot of temperatures against sunspot activity. Temperatures are increasing, sunspot activity is decreasing.

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Old 27-04-2018, 13:12   #714
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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how about the solar maxims of the last 10 cycles ( from cycle 15 to present)
I think that to be persuasive to the scientific community you would need to create a model that shows that your solar maxim forcing, coupled with all the other known natural and man-made forcings, fits the historical data better than current scientific models.

It would also be useful if you could come up with a plausible, testable, theoretical hypothesis to explain your model.

Good Luck

PS
I wouldn't ask JackDale to help you. Judging by post #713 he's a lousy graph-maker. You need someone more inventive, more creative, someone who can think outside the box.
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Old 27-04-2018, 13:12   #715
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Cosmic rays and solar output have a bigger role in climate than previously thought
https://phys.org/news/2016-08-solar-...rth-cloud.html
Svensmark's hypothesis has been discounted by the CLOUD experiment at CERN which was set up to test that very hypothesis.

[QUOTE]Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements

Eimear M. Dunne1,*,†, Hamish Gordon2,*,‡, Andreas Kürten3, João Almeida2,3, Jonathan Duplissy4, Christina Williamson3,§, Ismael K. Ortega5, Kirsty J. Pringle1, Alexey Adamov6, Urs Baltensperger7, Peter Barmet7, Francois Benduhn8, Federico Bianchi6,7, Martin Breitenlechner9,¶, Antony Clarke10, Joachim Curtius3, Josef Dommen7, Neil M. Donahue11,6, Sebastian Ehrhart2,3, Richard C. Flagan12, Alessandro Franchin6, Roberto Guida1, Jani Hakala6, Armin Hansel9,13, Martin Heinritzi3, Tuija Jokinen6,#, Juha Kangasluoma6, Jasper Kirkby2,3, Markku Kulmala6, Agnieszka Kupc14,§, Michael J. Lawler15,#, Katrianne Lehtipalo6,7, Vladimir Makhmutov16, Graham Mann1, Serge Mathot2, Joonas Merikanto6, Pasi Miettinen15, Athanasios Nenes17,18,19, Antti Onnela2, Alexandru Rap1, Carly L. S. Reddington1, Francesco Riccobono7, Nigel A. D. Richards1, Matti P. Rissanen6, Linda Rondo3, Nina Sarnela6, Siegfried Schobesberger6,**, Kamalika Sengupta1, Mario Simon3, Mikko Sipilä6, James N. Smith15,#, Yuri Stozkhov16, Antonio Tomé20, Jasmin Tröstl7, Paul E. Wagner14, Daniela Wimmer3,6, Paul M. Winkler14, Douglas R. Worsnop6,21, Kenneth S. Carslaw1

See all authors and affiliations

Science 27 Oct 2016:
aaf2649
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf2649
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Abstract
Fundamental questions remain about the origin of newly formed atmospheric aerosol particles because data from laboratory measurements have been insufficient to build global models. In contrast, gas-phase chemistry models have been based on laboratory kinetics measurements for decades. Here we build a global model of aerosol formation using extensive laboratory-measured nucleation rates involving sulfuric acid, ammonia, ions and organic compounds. The simulations and a comparison with atmospheric observations show that nearly all nucleation throughout the present-day atmosphere involves ammonia or biogenic organic compounds in addition to sulfuric acid. A significant fraction of nucleation involves ions, but the relatively weak dependence on ion concentrations indicates that for the processes studied variations in cosmic ray intensity do not significantly affect climate via nucleation in the present-day atmosphere.[/QUOTE]

Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements | Science
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Old 27-04-2018, 13:49   #716
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Solar cycle 23 began in 1996. Here is a plot of temperatures against sunspot activity. Temperatures are increasing, sunspot activity is decreasing.

wood for trees now that's not biased at all
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Old 27-04-2018, 13:59   #717
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Solar cycle 23 began in 1996. Here is a plot of temperatures against sunspot activity. Temperatures are increasing, sunspot activity is decreasing.

temperatures are decreasing and have been since the solar maximum of cycle 23 in November of 2001.
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Old 27-04-2018, 14:21   #718
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
I think that to be persuasive to the scientific community you would need to create a model that shows that your solar maxim forcing, coupled with all the other known natural and man-made forcings, fits the historical data better than current scientific models.

It would also be useful if you could come up with a plausible, testable, theoretical hypothesis to explain your model.

Good Luck

PS
I wouldn't ask JackDale to help you. Judging by post #713 he's a lousy graph-maker. You need someone more inventive, more creative, someone who can think outside the box.
I am on a tablet for now I currently can not do any graphs sorry. ( wish I could ) especially considering the attempt at a scatter graph in post 575 I could do better with a blinders and buckshot.) for graphs from me you will have to wait about 6 months in till I have time on a regular computer. )
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Old 27-04-2018, 14:31   #719
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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temperatures are decreasing and have been since the solar maximum of cycle 23 in November of 2001.
Wrong again. Notice the huge diversion at the end.

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Old 27-04-2018, 14:34   #720
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I am on a tablet for now I currently can not do any graphs sorry. ( wish I could ) especially considering the attempt at a scatter graph in post 575 I could do better with a blinders and buckshot.) for graphs from me you will have to wait about 6 months in till I have time on a regular computer. )
Having never seen a scattergraph from you that is a pretty weak comment.

I did the scattergraph and PPMC in Excel which I have on all of my devices, desktop, laptop, tablet and phone.
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