Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 22-04-2018, 21:23   #571
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 3,326
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
The other controversy around that was a paper by Schneider and Rasool that predicted cooling based on continued emissions. Stephen Schneider recognized very quickly that eliminating those aerosols would result in warming. Skeptics used that against him.
In which case it's the negatives of aerosols and other pollutants vs. the warming effects from CO2. We'd better adapt to it since even if we employ serious measures now we are being told they will have no impact for another 100 years.
__________________

Exile is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 22-04-2018, 21:44   #572
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 160
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Jack,

I posted to inform you against your statement that solar sun spots do show influences in climate change, I'm glad you have changed your view, I think.

Your repost was just more tit for tat of a personal made graph and statement.

Here's my view and I am no climate scientist.

If the AGW scientists are sure of their science and data, then their models prove that GHG forcing with AGW is no where near as their alarming as they have stated.

I would go with the scientists whose models were near spot on, Spencer, Cristie and Curry.
__________________

peter57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 04:21   #573
Registered User
 
SailOar's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 794
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

An interesting website that photographically shows changes to Earth since 1984. I've selected the "Glacier" story, and from there you can go to the highlighted areas on Earth such as Mt. Kilimanjaro, Pine Island Glacier in the Antarctica, Columbia Glacier in Alaska, etc. Or you can navigate to anywhere in the world. Seeing the changes to the glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is a sobering reminder that it's not only Arctic sea ice that is diminishing along the Northwest Passage.

From the "Glaciers" section you can back out to the "Stories" index page, which allows you to select "Deforestation", "Renewables", "Fires at Night", "Sea Level Rise", "Coral Bleaching", "Urban Fragility", "City Growth", or "Surface Waters".

SailOar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 04:44   #574
Registered User
 
Reefmagnet's Avatar

Join Date: May 2008
Location: puɐןsuǝǝnb 'ʎɐʞɔɐɯ
Boat: Nantucket Island 33
Posts: 2,903
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
An interesting website that photographically shows changes to Earth since 1984. I've selected the "Glacier" story, and from there you can go to the highlighted areas on Earth such as Mt. Kilimanjaro, Pine Island Glacier in the Antarctica, Columbia Glacier in Alaska, etc. Or you can navigate to anywhere in the world. Seeing the changes to the glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is a sobering reminder that it's not only Arctic sea ice that is diminishing along the Northwest Passage.

From the "Glaciers" section you can back out to the "Stories" index page, which allows you to select "Deforestation", "Renewables", "Fires at Night", "Sea Level Rise", "Coral Bleaching", "Urban Fragility", "City Growth", or "Surface Waters".

I'm guessing greening of the deserts and anything else not of interest to your run of the mill alarmist and doomsayers in general won't be found within the story list.
Reefmagnet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 06:17   #575
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,550
Images: 1
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by peter57 View Post
Jack,

I posted to inform you against your statement that solar sun spots do show influences in climate change, I'm glad you have changed your view, I think.

Your repost was just more tit for tat of a personal made graph and statement.

Here's my view and I am no climate scientist.

If the AGW scientists are sure of their science and data, then their models prove that GHG forcing with AGW is no where near as their alarming as they have stated.

I would go with the scientists whose models were near spot on, Spencer, Cristie and Curry.
The graph posted by Bart Verheggen, a Dutch climate scientsists, is a version of the one found on the Stanford Solar Center site, it is not "home made".

Here is one that is homemade by me that shows no correlation between sunspots and temperature. r = -0.106226184



Here are 16 predictions that stem from climate science. All are verified.

Quote:
Global Climate Models have successfully forecast:

That the troposphere would warm and the stratosphere would cool.
That nighttime temperatures would increase more than daytime temperatures.
That winter temperatures would increase more than summer temperatures.
Polar amplification (greater temperature increase as you move toward the poles).
That the Arctic would warm faster than the Antarctic.
The magnitude (0.3 K) and duration (two years) of the cooling from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
They made a retrodiction for Last Glacial Maximum sea surface temperatures which was inconsistent with the paleo evidence, and better paleo evidence showed the models were right.
They predicted a trend significantly different and differently signed from UAH satellite temperatures, and then a bug was found in the satellite data.
The amount of water vapor feedback due to ENSO.
The response of southern ocean winds to the ozone hole.
The expansion of the Hadley cells.
The poleward movement of storm tracks.
The rising of the tropopause and the effective radiating altitude.
The clear sky super greenhouse effect from increased water vapor in the tropics.
The near constancy of relative humidity on global average.
That coastal upwelling of ocean water would increase.
As for temperatures forecasts:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...global-warming


Christy has been debunked on several occasions:

McNider and Christy Style Themselves Revolutionary But Defend Inertia | Climate Science Watch

https://skepticalscience.com/John_Christy_quote.htm

https://thinkprogress.org/quoting-jo...-414c7bc89cac/

Comparing models to the satellite datasets « RealClimate
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 06:25   #576
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 160
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Hey Reef Magnet, the effects on climate from man made CO2 might be so strong that it is affecting the climates on Jupiter and Saturn. Both going through unusual climate change.

Or is the climate change on Jupiter that is visually noticeable through our telescope (250mm mirror) from other causes?

Hope the climate is good in Mackay as it is here in Brisvegas
peter57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 06:39   #577
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,550
Images: 1
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
In which case it's the negatives of aerosols and other pollutants vs. the warming effects from CO2. We'd better adapt to it since even if we employ serious measures now we are being told they will have no impact for another 100 years.
How about we just stop using the atmosphere is a cesspool?
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 06:59   #578
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 3,326
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
How about we just stop using the atmosphere is a cesspool?
Tell that to the 81% of the world's population who rely on that cesspool to survive. Or be more realistic & sensible about the complexities of the problem and tell them this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/04/o...sil-fuels.html
Exile is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 08:09   #579
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,550
Images: 1
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Tell that to the 81% of the world's population who rely on that cesspool to survive. Or be more realistic & sensible about the complexities of the problem and tell them this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/04/o...sil-fuels.html
Meanwhile some more current.

Quote:
Clear signs of global warming will hit poorer countries first

New climate-inequality tool quantifies how quickly the weather will veer beyond normal in different regions.

Nations such as Bangladesh and Egypt have long known that they will suffer more from climate change than will richer countries, but now researchers have devised a stark way to quantify the inequalities of future threats.

A map of "equivalent impacts", revealed at the annual meeting of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) this month in Vienna, shows that global temperatures would have to rise by a whopping 3 C before most people in wealthy nations would feel departures from familiar climate conditions equal to those that residents of poorer nations will suffer under moderate warming.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04854-2
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 08:31   #580
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 3,326
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
I don't doubt the article's predictions but also don't see why they would be any different in the absence of MMGW. Climate & weather have always impacted different regions differently and often disproportionately. And often unfairly given the poverty and lack of infrastructure already there. In some countries & regions this has greatly influenced why those conditions exist.
Exile is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 08:36   #581
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 3,326
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
An interesting website that photographically shows changes to Earth since 1984. I've selected the "Glacier" story, and from there you can go to the highlighted areas on Earth such as Mt. Kilimanjaro, Pine Island Glacier in the Antarctica, Columbia Glacier in Alaska, etc. Or you can navigate to anywhere in the world. Seeing the changes to the glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is a sobering reminder that it's not only Arctic sea ice that is diminishing along the Northwest Passage.

From the "Glaciers" section you can back out to the "Stories" index page, which allows you to select "Deforestation", "Renewables", "Fires at Night", "Sea Level Rise", "Coral Bleaching", "Urban Fragility", "City Growth", or "Surface Waters".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
I'm guessing greening of the deserts and anything else not of interest to your run of the mill alarmist and doomsayers in general won't be found within the story list.
Haven't had a chance to view it yet, but I'd also guess what's also missing are realistic comparisons to how the earth changed during previous time periods, including those prior to the industrial revolution. But I'd imagine the photography is well done and maybe even accompanied by dramatic background music to stir the emotions.
Exile is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 08:37   #582
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 5,550
Images: 1
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
I don't doubt the article's predictions but also don't see why they would be any different in the absence of MMGW. Climate & weather have always impacted different regions differently and often disproportionately. And often unfairly given the poverty and lack of infrastructure already there. In some countries & regions this has greatly influenced why those conditions exist.
Did you bother to read the link?

Quote:
But the effects of global warming are uneven, and poor regions in the tropics and subtropics are thought to be most vulnerable, for several reasons. They have limited financial resources with which to prepare for shifts in temperature and precipitation, and they are expected to face bigger changes in climate than countries in the mid-latitudes.
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 09:08   #583
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 3,326
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Did you bother to read the link?
Yes. Did you bother to fully comprehend my response, or read the NYT op-ed I posted? At the current level of our 'green' technology, there is no disputing that reducing fossil fuel emissions will impact poor countries & regions disproportionately. Even assuming subsidies from wealthier nations, the many times these facts have been presented you seem unable or unwilling to recognize them. Hopefully your ideological thinking isn't simplistic enough to not appreciate that, along with the benefits, there will also be costs that have to be weighed.
Exile is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 09:08   #584
Registered User
 
SailOar's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 794
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Tell that to the 81% of the world's population who rely on that cesspool to survive. Or be more realistic & sensible about the complexities of the problem and tell them this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/04/o...sil-fuels.html
One thing I like about NY Times articles are the comments from readers. Here are a few:
Quote:
Frank Shooster Coral Springs, FL December 4, 2013

Lomberg's most important contribution to energy and environmental policy has been his relentless dedication to cost-benefit analysis. This article only scratches the surface. He makes a decent case that low cost-fossil fuels can lift millions out of extreme poverty. Yet he neglects the costs of millions of people who will plunged into extreme poverty as a result of climate change, such as heavily populated low-lying nations like Bangladesh. Yes, he pays lip service to the climate costs, but nothing as detailed as the data he mounts to tout the benefits. Until, we see both sides of the equation, this article may mislead policy makers down a ruinous path. Even on the positive side of his ledger, he assumes that fracking is a safe technology when most observers would say that the jury is out. He talks about the deaths from unsafe dirty fuels burned in homes, yet it's not at all clear that the 200,000 deaths caused by air pollution is a result of coal alone, the primary fossil fuel he advocates. If that figure includes deaths from all sources of air pollution, than it is misleading when outside air pollution is aggravated by a shift to coal. I admire Lomborg, but I do not think this opinion piece comes close to the intellectual rigor of The Skeptical Environmentalist.
Quote:
William Moomaw Medford MA December 4, 2013

Bjorn Lomberg should note that a report earlier this year found that outdoor air pollution lead to 3.2 million premature deaths worldwide. 1.2 million pf those occurred in China and 620.000 in India. Fossil fuels - especially coal is not cheap if one includes all health, environmental and social costs. China itself estimates that all forms of pollution cost the country 3.5% of GDP, and apparently did not include health costs or climate damage in this estimate. The poor need energy services that are provided without damaging pollution and climate warming emissions. They do not need health and environmentally damaging fossil fuels. As noted, these fuels are not cheap!
Quote:
colin_n melbourne australia December 4, 2013

This is an extremely misguded article. You do not place a power generator at point A and a power user at point B and have it all work. You need to establish the so called centalised grid - a concept which is dubious now at best. If you take the cost of esbablishing that grid (be it gas or electricity) from scratch, then the cheap energy is the stuff that uses a local grid, or no grid at all. And that is electricity from wind and solar with some storage. LEDs solve the lighting problem. PEDs solve both communication and some effects of isolation. A single car battery is more than adequate for the average dwelling to provide lights, TV, computer and phone for a night... just ask the average yachtie
Quote:
Paul Detroit December 4, 2013

If the problem is really people cooking over "open fires and leaky stoves" (and I agree that it is a serious problem in many places) then why not really focus on the stoves? Lomborg pays lip service to this, but ultimately passes over it far too quickly.

In Mexico, for example, a number of NGOs are working to introduce simple and low-cost technologies to reduce pollution from biomass burning stoves, especially indoors. For example, masonry stoves can burn at higher temperatures and thus far more efficiently than open pit fires or even conventional woodstoves. Solar ovens also show a lot of promise.

I'm not sure how these kinds of relatively low-tech and low cost solutions are any worse than building a whole bunch of coal-fired power plants and then having people in developing countries buy electrical appliances. Of course, the the latter solution presumably has the not-so-unintended side effect that developed country businesses will be able to sell developing countries all kinds of power plant technologies, transmission lines, and appliances -- all financed, presumably, with world bank loans.
SailOar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-04-2018, 09:17   #585
Registered User
 
SailOar's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 794
Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reefmagnet
I'm guessing greening of the deserts and anything else not of interest to your run of the mill alarmist and doomsayers in general won't be found within the story list.
Haven't had a chance to view it yet, but I'd also guess what's also missing are realistic comparisons to how the earth changed during previous time periods, including those prior to the industrial revolution. But I'd imagine the photography is well done and maybe even accompanied by dramatic background music to stir the emotions.
There was no satellite photography during the industrial revolution, and you will have to supply your own music. Maybe Vivaldi's would be appropriate?

While, as I mentioned, this website suggests certain areas to look at, you can go anywhere on the globe. It's just that some areas are more interesting than others.
__________________

SailOar is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
passage

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Northwest Passage Colorado Dreamer Polar Regions 23 19-04-2018 11:12
Crew Wanted: North Sea passage to Shetland- Scotland- june 2018 roda Crew Positions: Wanted & Available 2 16-04-2018 16:30
Time for Northwest - Passage 2018 jackdale Polar Regions 98 26-01-2018 13:42
Crew Wanted: ARC Europe - BVI to Portugal May 2018 to June 2018 jhill82 Crew Positions: Wanted & Available 0 10-12-2017 06:30
Crew Available: French-Californian sailing couple for east-west passage beginning of January 2018! PerrineNate Crew Positions: Wanted & Available 0 23-11-2017 09:57



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 09:09.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.