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Old 22-04-2018, 12:18   #556
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by peter57 View Post
Jack,

Can you see any correlation here of sun spots to temperature.
No temperatures were shown on the graph.

Can you see any correlation here of sun spots to temperature?

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Old 22-04-2018, 13:10   #557
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

From solar scientists on the Grand Solar Minimum

Quote:
Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming.
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535
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Old 22-04-2018, 15:42   #558
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
No temperatures were shown on the graph.

Can you see any correlation here of sun spots to temperature?

I was just trying to bring to your attention that solar activity has an effect on the climate and definitely correlates with the records after reading your adverse post and trying to make sense of your graph on sun spots.

Please post link from where you acquired your graph.
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Old 22-04-2018, 16:15   #559
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by peter57 View Post
I was just trying to bring to your attention that solar activity has an effect on the climate and definitely correlates with the records after reading your adverse post and trying to make sense of your graph on sun spots.

Please post link from where you acquired your graph.
My image source:

https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress...e-age-onwards/

Which concludes:

Quote:
The main reasons that disqualify the sun as being a major culprit in recent global warming are:

No increase in solar output (or decrease in cosmic rays) over the past 50 years

Nighttime temperatures increased more than daytime (inconsistent with solar forcing; consistent with GHG forcing)

Stratospheric cooling (inconsistent with solar forcing; consistent with GHG forcing)
You might also be interested in this from the solar scientists at Stanford

Quote:
During the initial discovery period of global climate change, the magnitude of the influence of the Sun on Earth's climate was not well understood. Since the early 1990s, however, extensive research was put into determining what role, if any, the Sun has in global warming or climate change.

A recent review paper, put together by both solar and climate scientists, details these studies: Solar Influences on Climate. Their bottom line: though the Sun may play some small role, "it is nevertheless much smaller than the estimated radiative forcing due to anthropogenic changes." That is, human activities are the primary factor in global climate change.
Global Warming -- Research Issues
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Old 22-04-2018, 16:17   #560
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
I guess I forgot to take my smart-pill this morning, so I'm having trouble understanding what the conflict is all about. Below is the Curry-Stein Arctic Ocean ice cover chart and a global temperature chart, both for about the last 10,000 years. (note that the years-axis is reversed on the two charts) Crudely speaking, it appears to me that when global temperatures are high, ice cover is low; and when global temperatures are low, ice cover is high.

Duh! What am I missing?



The controversy is not over the correlation btwn increased temps and decreases in Arctic ice, but whether the higher temps and greater ice losses observed over the past 4 decades are compelling evidence of AGW as we so often hear. If Arctic ice is truly close to its all-time high over the past 10,000 years, then recent losses do not seem nearly as unusual nor dramatic, especially given the historically high variability. Even with these recent losses, the extent of the ice stills appears far greater than it was at the height of the Medieval Warm Period, i.e. long before the industrial age.

But here's a scientific article which details some of the complexities far better than I possibly can, and explains why the recent retreat of Arctic sea ice is not "unusual" despite what many believe.

https://judithcurry.com/2017/08/16/w...ea-ice-trends/
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Old 22-04-2018, 17:32   #561
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
The controversy is not over the correlation btwn increased temps and decreases in Arctic ice, but whether the higher temps and greater ice losses observed over the past 4 decades are compelling evidence of AGW as we so often hear. If Arctic ice is truly close to its all-time high over the past 10,000 years, then recent losses do not seem nearly as unusual nor dramatic, especially given the historically high variability. Even with these recent losses, the extent of the ice stills appears far greater than it was at the height of the Medieval Warm Period, i.e. long before the industrial age.

But here's a scientific article which details some of the complexities far better than I possibly can, and explains why the recent retreat of Arctic sea ice is not "unusual" despite what many believe.

https://judithcurry.com/2017/08/16/w...ea-ice-trends/
Thanks. Must be an important problem if Madame Curry is working on it. Please keep us posted if they figure it out.
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Old 22-04-2018, 19:09   #562
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Thanks. Must be an important problem if Madame Curry is working on it. Please keep us posted if they figure it out.
Drs. R & M Connolly actually. Only published on the Curry blog site.

Would be interesting to uncover how much of the actual scientific community actually endorses this popular notion that AGW is the principal driver of Arctic sea ice losses, and that this phenomenon is significant evidence of the impact of AGW worldwide. The science has identified a plethora of complex variables yet the mainstream lay journalists mostly seem to pin it all on higher temps from man-made causes. An oversimplification at best and a distortion of the evidence at worst.
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Old 22-04-2018, 19:46   #563
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Re: unusually warm(ish) in the Arctic, esp Bering Sea

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Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
Leaving aside all the previous flailings-about re definitions, morality (though I will say I try hard to be as a-moral as possible, and conversely as ethical as possible [<1x10e8,2100!]) and 'politics', what it appears that both you and Curry are claiming is that the uncertainty (in your minds) about the causes of the current warming warrant it being ignored: that it's not really a problem at all, and that a single, taken out of context graph that doesn't even show what it is presented as showing somehow validates by proxy this non-existent-in-the-real-world uncertainty.

Granted there is some uncertainty in the projections, which to date have been far too conservative, but the uncertainty in the causes is far below what most people would deem prudent to ignore, were it not for the efforts of those who have vested interests in maintaining the facade, such as those behind both Curry and IBD. Like it or not these are matter of record facts that any with an open mind can easily confirm, and have been confirmed multiple times in these threads.


A brief note about 'selective bias', from a previous rant of yours,

"Not much scientific agreement on causes, with theories ranging from "cyclical lows in solar radiation, heightened volcanic activity, changes in the ocean circulation, variations in Earth's orbit and axial tilt (orbital forcing), inherent variability in global climate, and decreases in the human population." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age Regardless, the data represented by the graph, if correct, undisputedly shows the 20th century having the greatest extent of Arctic sea ice in 10,000 years except for the LIA." (as before, even if correct, it shows nothing of the kind)

which somehow leaves out the rather important part, (when talking about a global phenomena) that the LIA was a localized, sequential event. (which I have specifically mentioned to you personally before).

A slightly more comprehensive excerpt from the introduction, from your same source.


The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, all separated by intervals of slight warming.[5] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report considered the timing and areas affected by the Little Ice Age suggested largely-independent regional climate changes rather than a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. At most, there was modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during the period.[10]
Several causes have been proposed: cyclical lows in solar radiation, heightened volcanic activity, changes in the ocean circulation, variations in Earth's orbit and axial tilt (orbital forcing), inherent variability in global climate, and decreases in the human population.
Rather than leveling your attacks against me or one of many climate scientists, wouldn't it be easier just to point out what this historical ice graph does tell us, in your opinion?

Your "vested interests," which I gather means ones who have opinions, beliefs, and incentives different from yours, are only relevant here if their bias has managed to produce data which is skewed. Plenty of accusations of bias directed towards both sides, but it seems to be more in the interpretation than the data itself. But if you know something the rest of us don't . . . .
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Old 22-04-2018, 19:50   #564
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Drs. R & M Connolly actually. Only published on the Curry blog site.

Would be interesting to uncover how much of the actual scientific community actually endorses this popular notion that AGW is the principal driver of Arctic sea ice losses, and that this phenomenon is significant evidence of the impact of AGW worldwide. The science has identified a plethora of complex variables yet the mainstream lay journalists mostly seem to pin it all on higher temps from man-made causes. An oversimplification at best and a distortion of the evidence at worst.
Two predictions made by climate scientists include Polar Amplification and Arctic warming increasing faster than Antarctic warming. Those two predictions go all the way back to Arrhenuis in the late 19th century.

Arrhenius (1896) on Polar Amplification
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Old 22-04-2018, 20:29   #565
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Two predictions made by climate scientists include Polar Amplification and Arctic warming increasing faster than Antarctic warming. Those two predictions go all the way back to Arrhenuis in the late 19th century.

Arrhenius (1896) on Polar Amplification
Sounds like Dr. Arrhenuis was way ahead of his time, and interesting that anyone was even thinking about carbon emissions in the late 19th century.

I don't think there's much controversy over the presence of these two effects nowadays, is there? The debate seems more about how much man-made CO2 is contributing to warmer Arctic temps, and what add'l natural vs. human variables affect the sea ice.

Speaking of, that last article from Drs. Connolly pointed out that the 1930's through 1970's saw cooling temps and an increase in ice extent, and the decreases began around the same time as satellites stated recording in 1978. This, according to the authors, contributed to an exaggeration of the losses since then since it doesn't account for the earlier trend. If the starting point is back in the 30's, however, the authors claim it would show an overall net gain. Then again, they point out various accuracy problems prior to the satellites coming online, and so the pre-1978 data may have some reliability problems.
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Old 22-04-2018, 20:35   #566
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Speaking of, that last article from Drs. Connolly pointed out that the 1930's through 1970's saw cooling temps and an increase in ice extent, and the decreases began around the same time as satellites stated recording in 1978.
That cooling has been arbitrated to the war and post-war boom, and the associated industrial and automotive aerosols which lead to cooling (just like volcanic eruptions). The Clean Acts of the 1970's, designed to rid the planet of smog, eliminated much of the aerosols, resulting in increased warming.
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Old 22-04-2018, 20:36   #567
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Sounds like Dr. Arrhenuis was way ahead of his time, and interesting that anyone was even thinking about carbon emissions in the late 19th century.
The GHG qualities of CO2 were first identified in the 1820's by Fourier.
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Old 22-04-2018, 20:41   #568
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I don't think there's much controversy over the presence of these two effects nowadays, is there? The debate seems more about how much man-made CO2 is contributing to warmer Arctic temps, and what add'l natural vs. human variables affect the sea ice.
There are other anthropogenic GHGs: methane, CFCs, HFCs, etc.. Solar activity has been declining for 50 year. Milankovitch cycles would have us continuing the 6000 year cooling period preceding the Industrial Revolution. H2O, a condensing GHG is the dominant GHG; however, it is an amplifier that depends on CO2, a non-condensing GHG as a driver.
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Old 22-04-2018, 20:56   #569
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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That cooling has been arbitrated to the war and post-war boom, and the associated industrial and automotive aerosols which lead to cooling (just like volcanic eruptions). The Clean Acts of the 1970's, designed to rid the planet of smog, eliminated much of the aerosols, resulting in increased warming.
Makes sense, although no mention of it in the article. Is this attribution controversial or is there strong scientific consensus supporting it?

Rather ironic that eliminating one set of environmental problems produced another. Every action we take (or don't take) will have consequences, and the challenge will be trying to insure that the positives outweigh the negatives. I haven't run across much discussion about such cost-benefit analyses.
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Old 22-04-2018, 21:02   #570
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Makes sense, although no mention of it in the article. Is this attribution controversial or is there strong scientific consensus supporting it?

Rather ironic that eliminating one set of environmental problems produced another. Every action we take (or don't take) will have consequences, and the challenge will be trying to insure that the positives outweigh the negatives. I haven't run across much discussion about such cost-benefit analyses.
The other controversy around that was a paper by Schneider and Rasool that predicted cooling based on continued emissions. Stephen Schneider recognized very quickly that eliminating those aerosols would result in warming. Skeptics used that against him.
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