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Old 18-04-2018, 14:41   #481
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
Europe looks like heat Island effect and why are the deserts heating up?
deserts are hearing due to modeled data due to minimal actual weather stations reporting .
Its not as warm as the modeling suggests. Brother-in-law has family in Morocco and Egypt. They say its colder than normal . But that is suspect due to being unofficial data.
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Old 18-04-2018, 15:15   #482
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by AiniA View Post
Why no heat island in the bulk of North America. Surely the same forces would be working. Not to be too simplistic about it, but do you notice a surfeit of orangey colours and a decided shortage of greenish. What might that mean?
The BEST study discounted the UHI as being a factor in climate.

http://www.scitechnol.com/2327-4581/2327-4581-1-104.pdf
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Old 18-04-2018, 15:16   #483
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Most of your misrepresentations are intentional.

Where are you getting 2.4C over 40 years?
Now, now . . . let's not get snippy again. 2.4C was a typo not unlike the many you have made to which other posters have not responded by accusing you of doing so intentionally. You've shown you don't respond well to pushback but that's no reason to get personal just because your one-sided representations are being questioned. To be clear, I don't find that you misrepresent, only that you seem unable or unwilling to acknowledge contrary scientific opinion and then effectively counter it. I had thought this is what scientists -- as opposed to mere partisans -- actually do.

Speaking of which, neither of your linked sources support your oft-repeated assertion that, absent AGW, we should be in a cooling period now. Then again, maybe this accounts for why the past century or so has seen Arctic sea ice at an all-time seasonal high since the time of the Little Ice Age. I'm not discounting the high rate of more recent seasonal retreats, only suggesting it should be viewed in a longer-term context. At least that's how actual scientists apparently view it.
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Old 18-04-2018, 15:33   #484
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Here is an interesting piece on arctic sea ice recovery .
https://principia-scientific.org/arc...e-early-march/
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Old 18-04-2018, 16:05   #485
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

I say s!#w all the graphs and all the data and just look out of the window.
Glaciers are disappearing at a scary rate, the Iditarod dog sled race has been moved to a different starting area because there has not been enough snow in recent years, the 11 city trip in Holland hasn't been held in 21 years because of lack of ice (It used to be every 6 years on average) . You can sail to Svalbard in midwinter. The world seed fault in that same archipelago is dealing with floods in midwinter. The permafrost is melting everywhere, trees are starting to grow in area's where they do not belong. Icebreakers get to the northpole in less than half the time it took 40 years ago and that is not because the icebreakers have been improved. I have sailed a small sailboat into the CAO, never in history has that been done before. Polar bears are starting to eat berries and plants and are starting to mate with brown bears because their hunting habitat is disappearing, polar bears are getting stuck in Labrador because the ice is retreating faster than they can walk up north to Baffin island, this year we had a full whopping 3/4" (!) of accumulated snow here in south east Alaska, in all fairness that is almost a 1/4" more than the winter of 2015/16.

please stop saying that "everything is normal".
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Old 18-04-2018, 16:10   #486
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Here is an interesting piece on arctic sea ice recovery .
https://principia-scientific.org/arc...e-early-march/
Great cherry pick. Congratulations

Here is mine (direct from DMI)





BTW

Using PSI as an authority is laughable.

So much credibility does PSI and the Sky Dragon Slayers have amongst the skeptical community?

Lord Monckton thinks its founder John O'Sullivan is scientifically illiterate.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Spencer, Curry and Watts dismiss them as cranks.
Time for the Slayers to Put Up or Shut Up
May 10th, 2013 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
I have allowed the Sky Dragon Slayers to post hundreds of comments here containing their views of how the climate system works (or maybe I should say how they think it doesn’t work).
As far as I can tell, their central non-traditional view seems to be that the atmosphere does not have so-called “greenhouse gases” that emit thermal infrared radiation downward. A variation on this theme is that even if those gases exist, they emit energy at the same rate they absorb, and so have no net effect on temperature.
I have repeatedly addressed these views and why they are false.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Judith Curry
JC comment. Grant was unaware of the previous skydragon threads at Climate Etc. The skydragons continue to expect me to debate them, their preferred forum is a radio debate. While I will never shut the door on skeptical challenges to the science and encourage contributions from those from different areas of expertise, this group beggars belief. I will continue to (barely) follow Claes Johnson’s work to see if he is able to come with anything interesting or publishable. IMO, this group has damaged the credibility of skepticism about climate change and provides a convenient target when people want to refer to “deniers” and crackpots.
Curry also published a two part discussion of their theories.

++++++++++++++++++++++++

A misinterpreted claim about a NASA press release, CO2, solar flares, and the thermosphere is making the rounds
Anthony Watts / March 28, 2013
I loathe having to write this story because I truly dislike giving any attention to the people who are known as the “slayers” from the “Slaying the Sky Dragon” book. They now operate under the moniker of “Principia Scientific”.
But, somebody has to do it because some really bad mangling of the intent of a NASA press release by the “slayers” group is getting some traction. They have completely misread the NASA study and reinterpreted it for their purpose, claiming in a story titled “New Discovery: NASA Study Proves Carbon Dioxide Cools Atmosphere”
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Old 18-04-2018, 16:11   #487
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
I say s!#w all the graphs and all the data and just look out of the window.
Glaciers are disappearing at a scary rate, the Iditarod dog sled race has been moved to a different starting area because there has not been enough snow in recent years, the 11 city trip in Holland hasn't been held in 21 years because of lack of ice (It used to be every 6 years on average) . You can sail to Svalbard in midwinter. The world seed fault in that same archipelago is dealing with floods in midwinter. The permafrost is melting everywhere, trees are starting to grow in area's where they do not belong. Icebreakers get to the northpole in less than half the time it took 40 years ago and that is not because the icebreakers have been improved. I have sailed a small sailboat into the CAO, never in history has that been done before. Polar bears are starting to eat berries and plants and are starting to mate with brown bears because their hunting habitat is disappearing, polar bears are getting stuck in Labrador because the ice is retreating faster than they can walk up north to Baffin island, this year we had a full whopping 3/4" (!) of accumulated snow here in south east Alaska, in all fairness that is almost a 1/4" more than the winter of 2015/16.

please stop saying that "everything is normal".
don't be rude but the Chinese did it from the Pacific to the Atlantic in the 1200's according to their historical records. So don't say it has never been done before now.
I never said that ice wasn't low now but it has been low before and it will be big again. And in the not to distant of future .
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Old 18-04-2018, 16:22   #488
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
don't be rude but the Chinese did it from the Pacific to the Atlantic in the 1200's according to their historical records. So don't say it has never been done before now.
Show us those historical records,please. Gavin Menzies has been debunked.
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Old 18-04-2018, 16:23   #489
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Great cherry pick. Congratulations

Here is mine (direct from DMI)





BTW

Using PSI as an authority is laughable.

So much credibility does PSI and the Sky Dragon Slayers have amongst the skeptical community?

Lord Monckton thinks its founder John O'Sullivan is scientifically illiterate.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Spencer, Curry and Watts dismiss them as cranks.
Time for the Slayers to Put Up or Shut Up
May 10th, 2013 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
I have allowed the Sky Dragon Slayers to post hundreds of comments here containing their views of how the climate system works (or maybe I should say how they think it doesn’t work).
As far as I can tell, their central non-traditional view seems to be that the atmosphere does not have so-called “greenhouse gases” that emit thermal infrared radiation downward. A variation on this theme is that even if those gases exist, they emit energy at the same rate they absorb, and so have no net effect on temperature.
I have repeatedly addressed these views and why they are false.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Judith Curry
JC comment. Grant was unaware of the previous skydragon threads at Climate Etc. The skydragons continue to expect me to debate them, their preferred forum is a radio debate. While I will never shut the door on skeptical challenges to the science and encourage contributions from those from different areas of expertise, this group beggars belief. I will continue to (barely) follow Claes Johnson’s work to see if he is able to come with anything interesting or publishable. IMO, this group has damaged the credibility of skepticism about climate change and provides a convenient target when people want to refer to “deniers” and crackpots.
Curry also published a two part discussion of their theories.

++++++++++++++++++++++++

A misinterpreted claim about a NASA press release, CO2, solar flares, and the thermosphere is making the rounds
Anthony Watts / March 28, 2013
I loathe having to write this story because I truly dislike giving any attention to the people who are known as the “slayers” from the “Slaying the Sky Dragon” book. They now operate under the moniker of “Principia Scientific”.
But, somebody has to do it because some really bad mangling of the intent of a NASA press release by the “slayers” group is getting some traction. They have completely misread the NASA study and reinterpreted it for their purpose, claiming in a story titled “New Discovery: NASA Study Proves Carbon Dioxide Cools Atmosphere”
not a cherry pick jack it just crossed my feed is all and If you look at your graph from 03 the graph from 08 then the current graph you see a significant decline and then this year it would appear to be in mid recovery.
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Old 18-04-2018, 16:27   #490
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
I say s!#w all the graphs and all the data and just look out of the window.
Glaciers are disappearing at a scary rate, the Iditarod dog sled race has been moved to a different starting area because there has not been enough snow in recent years, the 11 city trip in Holland hasn't been held in 21 years because of lack of ice (It used to be every 6 years on average) . You can sail to Svalbard in midwinter. The world seed fault in that same archipelago is dealing with floods in midwinter. The permafrost is melting everywhere, trees are starting to grow in area's where they do not belong. Icebreakers get to the northpole in less than half the time it took 40 years ago and that is not because the icebreakers have been improved. I have sailed a small sailboat into the CAO, never in history has that been done before. Polar bears are starting to eat berries and plants and are starting to mate with brown bears because their hunting habitat is disappearing, polar bears are getting stuck in Labrador because the ice is retreating faster than they can walk up north to Baffin island, this year we had a full whopping 3/4" (!) of accumulated snow here in south east Alaska, in all fairness that is almost a 1/4" more than the winter of 2015/16.

please stop saying that "everything is normal".
But what is normal? Geological history suggests frozen poles are the exception. It's well known that at one time, palm trees flourished at the poles. And - I'm just taking a wild stab here and could be totally wrong - but isn't most of the methane released from thawing permafrost due to vegetation that was present prior to the onset of permafrost?

Perhaps our perceptions of what should be considered normal are, in fact, not. At some point the pendulum has to swing, and maybe we're at that point. Sure, we may have assisted with our co2 production, but maybe it was inevitable anyway.
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Old 18-04-2018, 16:32   #491
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
not a cherry pick jack it just crossed my feed is all and If you look at your graph from 03 the graph from 08 then the current graph you see a significant decline and then this year it would appear to be in mid recovery.
That defines cherry pick. I cherry picked as well. I just went back until I got a big difference.

PSI is one of the most disputable sites on the web. Skeptics hate it.
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Old 18-04-2018, 16:52   #492
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
But what is normal?
Let us go with what is normal for human survival.

CO2 levels that never exceeded 300 ppm for starters. That was the norm for at least 800,000 years.
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Old 18-04-2018, 17:01   #493
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Let us go with what is normal for human survival.

CO2 levels that never exceeded 300 ppm for starters. That was the norm for at least 800,000 years.
NASA says humans can survive up to 5000 ppm atmospheric CO2.

Here's a little bit of trivia for you; If you compare atmospheric CO2 to human standards of living over the past 800000 years, there is a direct correlation. The more CO2, the better our living standards in all regards.
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Old 18-04-2018, 17:18   #494
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
That defines cherry pick. I cherry picked as well. I just went back until I got a big difference.

PSI is one of the most disputable sites on the web. Skeptics hate it.
Always important to look at the bias of any particular source, but that doesn't mean the data is necessarily skewed. It might help your debating skills to read more from both sides.
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Old 18-04-2018, 17:28   #495
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
I say s!#w all the graphs and all the data and just look out of the window.
Glaciers are disappearing at a scary rate, the Iditarod dog sled race has been moved to a different starting area because there has not been enough snow in recent years, the 11 city trip in Holland hasn't been held in 21 years because of lack of ice (It used to be every 6 years on average) . You can sail to Svalbard in midwinter. The world seed fault in that same archipelago is dealing with floods in midwinter. The permafrost is melting everywhere, trees are starting to grow in area's where they do not belong. Icebreakers get to the northpole in less than half the time it took 40 years ago and that is not because the icebreakers have been improved. I have sailed a small sailboat into the CAO, never in history has that been done before. Polar bears are starting to eat berries and plants and are starting to mate with brown bears because their hunting habitat is disappearing, polar bears are getting stuck in Labrador because the ice is retreating faster than they can walk up north to Baffin island, this year we had a full whopping 3/4" (!) of accumulated snow here in south east Alaska, in all fairness that is almost a 1/4" more than the winter of 2015/16.

please stop saying that "everything is normal".
"Normal" in this area also depends more on geological time, not the time that any of us have lived on the planet to observe these changes. If I understand recent discussions correctly, Arctic sea ice has been increasing seasonally in ever-increasing volume since the Little Ice Age, and so the last few centuries -- on average -- have seen its greatest volumes. The seasonal decrease in recent decades therefore appears "abnormal." But is it?? And whatever its cause, we have no choice but to accept it, even if it continues and becomes the "new" normal, right?
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