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Old 18-04-2018, 04:57   #466
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Global Warming’s Worst-Case Projections Look Increasingly Likely | MIT Technology Review
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A paper, published in Nature, found that global temperatures could rise nearly 5 °C by the end of the century under the the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s steepest prediction for greenhouse-gas concentrations. That’s 15 percent hotter than the previous estimate. The odds that temperatures will increase more than 4 degrees by 2100 in this so-called “business as usual” scenario increased from 62 percent to 93 percent, according to the new analysis...

The simulations that turned out to most closely match real-world observations of how energy flows in and out of the climate system were the ones that predicted the most warming this century. In particular, the study found, the models projecting that clouds will allow in more radiation over time, possibly because of decreased coverage or reflectivity, are the ones that simulate the recent past the best”...

In another key finding, the scientists found that the second-lowest IPCC scenario would be more likely to result in the warming previously predicted under the second-highest by 2100. In fact, the world will have to cut another 800 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions this century for the earlier warming estimates to hold. (By way of comparison, total greenhouse-gas emissions stood at about 49 gigatons last year.)...
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Old 18-04-2018, 06:30   #467
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
I can post graphs to that also don't have to do with current temperatures in the arctic .
However mine that I post are more accurate.
http://data.meereisportal.de/maps/la...xtent_n_en.png
It even shows the same area numbers but it uses a much longer time span to get better averages.
How is your graph more accurate?

That graph still shows the current level 2SD below the mean and still shows the current level as the lowest of the posted years.

Your graph does not have a longer span for determining the mean.

NSDIC uses exactly the same time period for the mean 1981-2010

PIOMAS uses the 1979-2017 for the mean.
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Old 18-04-2018, 06:40   #468
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
how long did you have to search to find a location on land that was above normal?

As far as your ocean temperature your incorrect once again, the coldest sea temp in Canada is https://www.seatemperature.org/north...angnirtung.htm. At -1.7℃ .
Exactly .1℃ above freezing temperature for sea ice to form.
I used the capital city of Nunavut. How long will it takes you to find one that is below normal?

We have been through the difference in temperature before.

From my site:

Quote:
Our report for Canada is compiled using satellite data together with in-situ observations to get the most reliable daily data of sea surface temperatures, water temperatures, surf forecasts, current temperatures and weather forecasts.
From your site:

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The measurements for the water temperature in Pangnirtung, Nunavut are provided by the daily satellite readings provided by the NOAA. The temperatures given are the sea surface temperature (SST) which is most relevant to recreational users.
Mine uses two measurements; your uses one.

That is correct - sea ice will not form at that temperature.
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Old 18-04-2018, 06:42   #469
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
I'll try & avoid embedding then.

Once again I assume you are alluding to the Milankovitch cycle which was a theory first hypothesized in the 1920's. It's a convenient way to attribute all warming to AGW, but I don't think you've ever mentioned how much weight it carries in the scientific community. If it did then we wouldn't be reading so many accounts of climate scientists trying to distinguish btwn natural vs anthropogenic warming.

Please explain, or at least properly attribute.
Global cycles would have us cooling. Milankovitch cycles would have us cooling. Solar cycles would have us cooling.
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Old 18-04-2018, 09:52   #470
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
I'll try & avoid embedding then.

Once again I assume you are alluding to the Milankovitch cycle which was a theory first hypothesized in the 1920's. It's a convenient way to attribute all warming to AGW, but I don't think you've ever mentioned how much weight it carries in the scientific community. If it did then we wouldn't be reading so many accounts of climate scientists trying to distinguish btwn natural vs anthropogenic warming.

Please explain, or at least properly attribute.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Fe...ming/page4.php

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...ing-the-world/

BTW - the National Research Council of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has embraced the Milankovitch Cycle model.
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Old 18-04-2018, 10:01   #471
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
I used the capital city of Nunavut. How long will it takes you to find one that is below normal?

We have been through the difference in temperature before.

From my site:



From your site:



Mine uses two measurements; your uses one.

That is correct - sea ice will not form at that temperature.
And those differences are apparently both derived from sat data. Add to the equation the ~5.6ºC avg. variance bwtn the sat & land-based data previously discussed, ironically about the same projected increase as SailOar's latest "worse-case" scenario. Despite all this uncertainty you nevertheless represent the 2.4ºC increase based on the 40-year avg. as an "obvious" trend.
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Old 18-04-2018, 10:19   #472
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Despite all this uncertainty you nevertheless represent the 2.4ºC increase based on the 40-year avg. as an "obvious" trend.
Learn to read a graph.

I said 0.24C above the mean, not 2.4C. Stop misrepresenting my posts.

The 40 year increase is 0.55C. Look at the y axis. The mean is not 40 years, it is 30 years (1981-2010 inclusive)
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Old 18-04-2018, 10:23   #473
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Fe...ming/page4.php

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...ing-the-world/

BTW - the National Research Council of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has embraced the Milankovitch Cycle model.
Both links were helpful and I'm not questioning the Milankovitch Cycle model. I only gave the two articles a quick read, but the first (Nasa) suggests that the Milankovitch and other natural cycles are seasonal & decadal rather than long term. Read together with your second link (Bloomberg), the consensus is represented as being that all natural forces combined do not account for the recent warming. So far so good.

But I'm not reading anything about the type of long-term natural cooling trend you are consistently putting out there. Only that all of these various natural forces combined amount to slight or neutral effects. Where is your source that supports a natural cooling trend absent AGW??
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Old 18-04-2018, 10:28   #474
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Learn to read a graph.

I said 0.24C above the mean, not 2.4C. Stop misrepresenting my posts.

The 40 year increase is 0.55C. Look at the y axis. The mean is not 40 years, it is 30 years (1981-2010 inclusive)
Yes, 0.24ºC and 30 years. Thanks for the corrections. Any misrepresentations were unintentional.

But then what's more of an "obvious" trend, 2.4C over 40 years or 0.24C over 30 years?
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Old 18-04-2018, 10:35   #475
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Yes, 0.24ºC and 30 years. Thanks for the corrections. Any misrepresentations were unintentional.

But then what's more of an "obvious" trend, 2.4C over 40 years or 0.24C over 30 years?
Most of your misrepresentations are intentional.

Where are you getting 2.4C over 40 years?
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Old 18-04-2018, 10:42   #476
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Both links were helpful and I'm not questioning the Milankovitch Cycle model. I only gave the two articles a quick read, but the first (Nasa) suggests that the Milankovitch and other natural cycles are seasonal & decadal rather than long term. Read together with your second link (Bloomberg), the consensus is represented as being that all natural forces combined do not account for the recent warming. So far so good.

But I'm not reading anything about the type of long-term natural cooling trend you are consistently putting out there. Only that all of these various natural forces combined amount to slight or neutral effects. Where is your source that supports a natural cooling trend absent AGW??
The long Milankovitch cycle time is about 100,000 years. That is what drives ice ages.

Have you missed all the hoopla about the coming Grand Solar Minimum. Newhaul is really enamored by it. Solar scientists know better.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535

https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/ar...2/2.17/3074082
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Old 18-04-2018, 11:49   #477
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

What amplification looks like.

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Old 18-04-2018, 13:26   #478
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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What amplification looks like.

Europe looks like heat Island effect and why are the deserts heating up?
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Old 18-04-2018, 13:39   #479
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Europe looks like heat Island effect and why are the deserts heating up?
Why no heat island in the bulk of North America. Surely the same forces would be working. Not to be too simplistic about it, but do you notice a surfeit of orangey colours and a decided shortage of greenish. What might that mean?
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Old 18-04-2018, 14:36   #480
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Europe looks like heat Island effect and why are the deserts heating up?
and yet they had snow in Morocco and Saudi Arabia multiple times this winter.
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