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Old 16-04-2018, 15:57   #436
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
1. Other than heavy icebreakers or ultra light boats that can be pulled up and over the ice, no ships have been there. Many have tried in 18th, 19th en 20th century. Most famous expeditions were the one of the Karluk in 1913-16 and Captain the Long on the "Jeanette" in 1879-81. Both boats have not been more than a 100 miles from land, and were completely surrounded by impenetrable ice and got crushed. We went whistling till 470 miles off shore and had to meander quite a bit for the last 75 miles after that. But the majority was "open water" with big enough leads that you couldn't see the other side of. Here a picture taken at 80 degrees north, which is 480 miles north of point Barrow, the most northern point of the USA.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BYahZBoH...=arcticmission

2. It has not been navigable since humans have tried, which honestly is only been 150-170 years, no one had done it until last summer when we tried it. There is a vessel called "Tara Oceans", sir Peter Blakes old research vessel, they have nipped off a corner of the 200 miles zone, so technically they were first, even though they only nipped 10 or 20 miles off a corner.
Back in the early days, and actually as late as the 1970's, the summer ice edge was pretty much hugging the coast of Alaska, now it is often more than 300 or even 400 miles offshore. Russia is the same story. 20 years ago it was unimaginable to do it by small craft, now many boats transiting the North East Passage don't even get to see ice, not even on a distance.

3. Although never officially proven is my personal suspicion (and observation) that icebreaker activity helps the disappearing of ice as well.
Thanks for your responses, your personal observations, and your objectivity. I checked out your coordinates from 80ºN on GoogleEarth and it drives home just how far north you traveled!

Quote:
Originally Posted by LakeSuperior View Post
Wind on the water creates current, increases heat exchange with the water (warming the water), and reduces temperature gradients (in the water). The net effect is increased convective heat exchange between the ice and the water melting the ice faster. The melting is accelerated as time passes and the leads become larger.
Jack is presumably aware of such known factors in addition to warming temps since he claims to follow Judith Curry's blog. The only real consensus is that AGW exists and plays a role in the extent of Arctic sea ice, but how much of a role is hotly debated (at least on JC's blog site). In fact, a recent tweet states as follows:

"New paper: Arctic sea ice extent is greater now than at any time during the Holocene except during the Little Ice Age."

https://twitter.com/curryja/status/9...003649?lang=en

The referenced new paper is here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...preview_click&

In its intro, it points out that

Arctic sea ice, with its strong seasonal variability (Fig. 1), is a critical component in the global climate system, contributing to changes in the Earth’s albedo, primary productivity and deep-water formation. Over the last few decades, this sea ice has decreased dramatically, and the causes of these recent changes, i.e. natural vs. anthropogenic forcings, are poorly understood. [emphasis mine].

And yet some posters on here must feel that they understand such complex systems better than actual scientists since they consistently leave out information that runs counter to their personal beliefs or agendas. That, my friends, has nothing to do with science.
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Old 16-04-2018, 16:38   #437
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
You are correct about being 8 years out of date. The CDAIC web site is being moved. The previous web site has more current data. 2013 - 36 billion tonnes.

The later numbers are higher by shown within the context of the graph presented.
Then your numbers are wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern..._Energy_Agency
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Old 17-04-2018, 10:04   #438
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post



Jack is presumably aware of such known factors in addition to warming temps since he claims to follow Judith Curry's blog. The only real consensus is that AGW exists and plays a role in the extent of Arctic sea ice, but how much of a role is hotly debated (at least on JC's blog site). In fact, a recent tweet states as follows:

"New paper: Arctic sea ice extent is greater now than at any time during the Holocene except during the Little Ice Age."

https://twitter.com/curryja/status/9...003649?lang=en

The referenced new paper is here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...preview_click&

In its intro, it points out that

Arctic sea ice, with its strong seasonal variability (Fig. 1), is a critical component in the global climate system, contributing to changes in the Earth’s albedo, primary productivity and deep-water formation. Over the last few decades, this sea ice has decreased dramatically, and the causes of these recent changes, i.e. natural vs. anthropogenic forcings, are poorly understood. [emphasis by Jack].

And yet some posters on here must feel that they understand such complex systems better than actual scientists since they consistently leave out information that runs counter to their personal beliefs or agendas. That, my friends, has nothing to do with science.
The two sections I bolded contradict each other.

BTW - I have never said "the science is settled". I will suggest that enough of the science is known that we can make the required policy decisions. It is called the precautionary principle.

The last paragraph is more appropriate for those who are dismissive of climate science, which I affirm.
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Old 17-04-2018, 10:07   #439
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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There is nothing in the Wikipedia page that supports your contention that the CDAIC numbers are wrong.
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Old 17-04-2018, 13:21   #440
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
There is nothing in the Wikipedia page that supports your contention that the CDAIC numbers are wrong.
They're an Intergovernmental Panel. Are you suggesting intergovernmental panels cannot be relied upon to dispere true and correct information?

They also seem somewhat better in keeping their data more up to date than your sources. And their website looks much more professional which may be indicative of the organisation as a whole.

Or are you refuting data just because it doesnt align with your ideals and beliefs?
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Old 17-04-2018, 13:57   #441
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
They're an Intergovernmental Panel. Are you suggesting intergovernmental panels cannot be relied upon to dispere true and correct information?

They also seem somewhat better in keeping their data more up to date than your sources. And their website looks much more professional which may be indicative of the organisation as a whole.

Or are you refuting data just because it doesnt align with your ideals and beliefs?
Show us the data from the Wikipedia page to which you linked that refutes the CDIAC data.

BTW -some more recent data

Quote:

Global Carbon Emissions
Global carbon (C) emissions from fossil fuel use were 9.795 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2014 (or 35.9 GtCO2 of carbon dioxide).
That does not include cement production, gas flaring or land use change.

https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions
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Old 17-04-2018, 16:18   #442
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Show us the data from the Wikipedia page to which you linked that refutes the CDIAC data.

BTW -some more recent data



That does not include cement production, gas flaring or land use change.

https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions

Okay Dokay. Here's a simpler response

There is nothing within your posts that supports your contention that the CDAIC numbers are correct.
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Old 17-04-2018, 17:51   #443
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
[COLOR="Navy"]
Jack is presumably aware of such known factors in addition to warming temps since he claims to follow Judith Curry's blog. The only real consensus is that AGW exists and plays a role in the extent of Arctic sea ice, but how much of a role is hotly debated (at least on JC's blog site). In fact, a recent tweet states as follows:

"New paper: Arctic sea ice extent is greater now than at any time during the Holocene except during the Little Ice Age."

https://twitter.com/curryja/status/9...003649?lang=en

The referenced new paper is here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...preview_click&

In its intro, it points out that

Arctic sea ice, with its strong seasonal variability (Fig. 1), is a critical component in the global climate system, contributing to changes in the Earth’s albedo, primary productivity and deep-water formation. Over the last few decades, this sea ice has decreased dramatically, and the causes of these recent changes, i.e. natural vs. anthropogenic forcings, are poorly understood. [emphasis mine].

And yet some posters on here must feel that they understand such complex systems better than actual scientists since they consistently leave out information that runs counter to their personal beliefs or agendas. That, my friends, has nothing to do with science.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
The two sections I bolded contradict each other.

No, they don't. Look at the graph JC presents about 4 comments down from her tweet. The paper she cites (peer-reviewed btw, at least according to some comments further down), is discussing 1000's of years. This is why questions about comparisons to previous centuries & eras are highly relevant before simply echoing the prevailing propaganda which blames AGW for this entire recent phenomenon. Just look at how the graph represents sea ice cover during the medieval warming period, i.e. significantly less than what has been recorded in recent decades or even the past few centuries. Obviously there is much uncertainty in the data underlying these estimates, and that is also what the authors of the paper are attempting to address. Few disagree that AGW plays a role, and it's certainly possible it plays a signifiant role, but using retreating Arctic sea ice in recent times as alarmist evidence of catastrophic MMGW is irresponsible & damages the credibility of the CC cause.

BTW - I have never said "the science is settled". I will suggest that enough of the science is known that we can make the required policy decisions. It is called the precautionary principle.

Precautionary against what? What's the latest IPCC prediction for warming over the next 100 years? 2.5ºC? How does that compare with previous periods, and how were humans, other forms of life, or other ecological systems impacted? And even if deemed harmful, what sorts of realistic proposals to mitigate have been proffered?

Money via higher taxes have produced a lot of windmills, etc. and reduced CO2 emissions in Germany and other EU countries, and technology via fracking has made a big difference in the US and elsewhere. But we don't want to talk about that because we're supposed to hate the fossil fuel industry. How about China, India, and the rest of the developing world taking significant action? Now we're back to unicorns.


The last paragraph is more appropriate for those who are dismissive of climate science, which I affirm.
Except, for example, the climate science that is examining the extent of sea ice in the Arctic, which you dismiss or fail to acknowledge because it runs counter to your personal beliefs & agenda. So it really doesn't matter where you come down on the actual science, provided it's the science you personally agree with. Nothing scientific about that approach, but you have plenty of company since both sides use it to promote their own ends.
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Old 17-04-2018, 17:55   #444
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Except, for example, the climate science that is examining the extent of sea ice in the Arctic, which you dismiss or fail to acknowledge because it runs counter to your personal beliefs & agenda. So it really doesn't matter where you come down on the actual science, provided it's the science you personally agree with. Nothing scientific about that approach, but you have plenty of company since both sides use it to promote their own ends.
Climate science about Arctic sea ice extent and I are on the same page. It is declining according to NSIDC, PIOMAS and DMI.
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Old 17-04-2018, 18:02   #445
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Okay Dokay. Here's a simpler response

There is nothing within your posts that supports your contention that the CDAIC numbers are correct.
Show me your numbers.
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Old 17-04-2018, 18:26   #446
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Climate science about Arctic sea ice extent and I are on the same page. It is declining according to NSIDC, PIOMAS and DMI.
the sea ice volume is still rising at a much faster rate than in other years.
As a side note icebreakers are anthropogenic.
Definition of anthropogenic
: of, relating to, or resulting from the influence of human beings on nature
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dict.../anthropogenic
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Old 17-04-2018, 18:29   #447
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Climate science about Arctic sea ice extent and I are on the same page. It is declining according to NSIDC, PIOMAS and DMI.
So that means you agree that, after the 11,500 years that have passed since the start of the current Holocene period and the most recent ice age, Arctic sea ice has been greater in the last century or more than at anytime since the Little Ice Age, but over the past few decades it has decreased significantly (or "dramatically" as the article asserts). If so, then there is nothing contradictory about these two statements as you stated. This also explains Erik's observations from last summer of open water at 80ºN, but also explains the accounts of 19th & 18th century explorers who got trapped in ice. There's nothing contradictory nor inconsistent about it, so long as you're not simplistically attributing -- by implication or otherwise -- that science definitively attributes the recent phenomena of retreating sea ice to AGW alone. If so, then you're obviously not well versed in the science, or you are well versed but are being intentionally misleading.
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Old 17-04-2018, 18:36   #448
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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the sea ice volume is still rising at a much faster rate than in other years.
According to the paper cited above, both the extent and the rate of increase/decrease are highly seasonal, and subject to severe fluctuations. Increasing temps, if occurring, is one of a myriad of variables. Not sure how this can all be analyzed by looking at the most recent decades or even past few centuries, but I'm no climate scientist.
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Old 17-04-2018, 18:44   #449
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
According to the paper cited above, both the extent and the rate of increase/decrease are highly seasonal, and subject to severe fluctuations. Increasing temps, if occurring, is one of a myriad of variables. Not sure how this can all be analyzed by looking at the most recent decades or even past few centuries, but I'm no climate scientist.
area in winter has much more to do with wind patterns and storms than anything else. This winter we saw storm after storm forcing the ice out of the bearing sea and into the arctic . That's part of the reason for the thickness this winter. Not to mention that temps are back down to the long term average. Also northern hemisphere snow is at record volumes this year.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/fi...1-622x1024.png
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Old 17-04-2018, 18:51   #450
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

From Curry's tweets:

Quote:
The decline of sea ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean from ICESat (2003–2008) is placed in the context of estimates from 42 years of submarine records (1958–2000) described by Rothrock et al. (1999, 2008). While the earlier 1999 work provides a longer historical record of the regional changes, the latter offers a more refined analysis, over a sizable portion of the Arctic Ocean supported by a much stronger and richer data set. Within the data release area (DRA) of declassified submarine sonar measurements (covering ∼38% of the Arctic Ocean), the overall mean winter thickness of 3.64 m in 1980 can be compared to a 1.89 m mean during the last winter of the ICESat record—an astonishing decrease of 1.75 m in thickness. Between 1975 and 2000, the steepest rate of decrease is −0.08 m/yr in 1990 compared to a slightly higher winter/summer rate of −0.10/−0.20 m/yr in the five‐year ICESat record (2003–2008). Prior to 1997, ice extent in the DRA was >90% during the summer minimum. This can be contrasted to the gradual decrease in the early 2000s followed by an abrupt drop to <55% during the record setting minimum in 2007. This combined analysis shows a long‐term trend of sea ice thinning over submarine and ICESat records that span five decades.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2009GL039035
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