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Old 21-02-2018, 23:52   #31
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
Arctic temperatures soar 45 degrees above normal, flooded by extremely mild air on all sides | Washington Post

While the Eastern United States simmers in some of its warmest February weather ever recorded, the Arctic is also stewing in temperatures more than 45 degrees above normal. This latest huge temperature spike in the Arctic is another striking indicator of its rapidly transforming climate.

For Feb 20th, (unofficial) average daily temperature departure-from-normal for North Slope locales:
Umiat: +45F (+25C) ,
Deadhorse +44F,
Nuiqsut: +43F,
Wainwright: +40F
Utqiaġvik: +39F,
Kaktovik +35F.
#akwx @Climatologist49 @CinderBDT907

Temperatures over the entire Arctic north of 80 degrees latitude have averaged about 10 degrees (6 Celsius) above normal since the beginning of the calendar year, sometimes spiking over 25 degrees (14 Celsius) above normal (the normal temperature is around minus-22, or minus-30 Celsius).

The temperature difference from normal over the Arctic
averaged over the next five days in the GFS model forecast.
(University of Maine Climate Reanalyzer)
here is a reconstruction I found of the temperatures during the maunder minimum ( aka lia )
see anything interesting?
And we are now going into what has been initially named the Eddy minimum. It is expected to be similar to the maunder
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Old 22-02-2018, 00:05   #32
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Here is today from the university of maine climate reanalyzer
The same site that the Washington post article you linked to used .
See how their cherry is misleading.
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Old 22-02-2018, 14:42   #33
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Here is today from the university of maine climate reanalyzer
The same site that the Washington post article you linked to used .
See how their cherry is misleading.
What is it you find misleading?
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Old 22-02-2018, 15:35   #34
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
What is it you find misleading?
a couple of major points .
First most of the time they tell you about the departure from normal but not what the normal baseline is.
Secondly they use metric when they do tell baseline and use fahrenheit to tell the amount above the baseline . Which for most casual readers is misleading .
Example is average -10 c and the current temperature is 30 f so it is 15 deg fahrenheit above average.
Do you see the issue ?
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Old 22-02-2018, 16:32   #35
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
a couple of major points .
First most of the time they tell you about the departure from normal but not what the normal baseline is.
I don't find that misleading. They tell you that the baseline is CSFR 1979-2000. Not sure how they would display that on the graphic?
Quote:
Secondly they use metric when they do tell baseline and use fahrenheit to tell the amount above the baseline . Which for most casual readers is misleading .
The image I posted showing Temperature Anomaly shows both F and C. Again, I don't find that misleading -- but maybe I'm not a casual reader.
Quote:
Example is average -10 c and the current temperature is 30 f so it is 15 deg fahrenheit above average.
Do you see the issue ?
I'm having trouble following you. I don't see any confusion between F & C on the image I posted. Guess I'll have to take your word for it that you are misled.
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Old 22-02-2018, 17:50   #36
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
I don't find that misleading. They tell you that the baseline is CSFR 1979-2000. Not sure how they would display that on the graphic?

The image I posted showing Temperature Anomaly shows both F and C. Again, I don't find that misleading -- but maybe I'm not a casual reader.

I'm having trouble following you. I don't see any confusion between F & C on the image I posted. Guess I'll have to take your word for it that you are misled.
no I am not confused or feel mislead but then as you I'm sure already know I am not a casual reader either.
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Old 22-02-2018, 17:52   #37
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
I don't find that misleading. They tell you that the baseline is CSFR 1979-2000. Not sure how they would display that on the graphic?

The image I posted showing Temperature Anomaly shows both F and C. Again, I don't find that misleading -- but maybe I'm not a casual reader.

I'm having trouble following you. I don't see any confusion between F & C on the image I posted. Guess I'll have to take your word for it that you are misled.
I am not confused either but as I'm sure you know I am not a casual reader either.
Now off to shovel the snow that I'm not supposed to have
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Old 23-02-2018, 07:25   #38
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

An interesting study describing some of the real reasons for the declining icecaps worldwide:

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0€“2000*m), 1955€“2010 - Levitus - 2012 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

Some exerpts:

[18] Using model simulations based on AOGCM simulations, Dommenget [2009] concluded that “continental warming due to anthropogenic forcing (e.g., the warming at the end of the last century or future climate change scenarios) is mostly (80%–90%) [is] indirectly forced by the contemporaneous ocean warming, not directly by local radiative forcing.” Thus even if greenhouse gas emissions were halted today than regardless of the residence time of the carbon dioxide in today's atmosphere, the ocean would continue to heat the atmosphere (my emphasis) [Wetherald et al., 2001] .

[21] We have estimated an increase of 24 1022 J representing a volume mean warming of 0.09C of the 0–2000 m layer of the World Ocean. If this heat were instantly transferred to the lower 10 km of the global atmosphere it would result in a volume mean warming of this atmospheric layer by approximately 36C (65F). This transfer of course will not happen; earth's climate system simply does not work like this. But this computation does provide a perspective on the amount of heating that the earth system has undergone since 1955.


In other words, for point [21], without the oceans, the average global temp would be 121F rather that 56F...


Conclusions shouldn't be jumped to as a result of the above exerpts; the study should be read in its entirety to (possibly) begin to grasp the complexity of the subject...
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Old 23-02-2018, 09:09   #39
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
An interesting study describing some of the real reasons for the declining icecaps worldwide:

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0€“2000*m), 1955€“2010 - Levitus - 2012 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

Some exerpts:

[18] Using model simulations based on AOGCM simulations, Dommenget [2009] concluded that “continental warming due to anthropogenic forcing (e.g., the warming at the end of the last century or future climate change scenarios) is mostly (80%–90%) [is] indirectly forced by the contemporaneous ocean warming, not directly by local radiative forcing.” Thus even if greenhouse gas emissions were halted today than regardless of the residence time of the carbon dioxide in today's atmosphere, the ocean would continue to heat the atmosphere (my emphasis) [Wetherald et al., 2001] .

[21] We have estimated an increase of 24 1022 J representing a volume mean warming of 0.09C of the 0–2000 m layer of the World Ocean. If this heat were instantly transferred to the lower 10 km of the global atmosphere it would result in a volume mean warming of this atmospheric layer by approximately 36C (65F). This transfer of course will not happen; earth's climate system simply does not work like this. But this computation does provide a perspective on the amount of heating that the earth system has undergone since 1955.


In other words, for point [21], without the oceans, the average global temp would be 121F rather that 56F...


Conclusions shouldn't be jumped to as a result of the above exerpts; the study should be read in its entirety to (possibly) begin to grasp the complexity of the subject...
I will be reading the full study today
Here is something to ponder on in the meantime . The sat anomaly report for this last week and then the actual temps for the same period for contrast.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml
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Old 23-02-2018, 10:01   #40
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

That tanker video. Lot of natural light. Wouldn't it be dark that far above the arctic circle in December?
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Old 23-02-2018, 10:09   #41
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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That tanker video. Lot of natural light. Wouldn't it be dark that far above the arctic circle in December?
they were actually hugging the coast of Russia so not really that far north comparatively.
The video was likely shot near the end of its journey in mid to late January.
One last thing to reiterate the LNG tanker in question is designed to operate as a heavy icebreaker when traveling stern first.
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Old 23-02-2018, 14:05   #42
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
An interesting study describing some of the real reasons for the declining icecaps worldwide:

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000*m), 1955–2010 - Levitus - 2012 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

Some exerpts:

[18] Using model simulations based on AOGCM simulations, Dommenget [2009] concluded that continental warming due to anthropogenic forcing (e.g., the warming at the end of the last century or future climate change scenarios) is mostly (80%90%) [is] indirectly forced by the contemporaneous ocean warming, not directly by local radiative forcing. Thus even if greenhouse gas emissions were halted today than regardless of the residence time of the carbon dioxide in today's atmosphere, the ocean would continue to heat the atmosphere (my emphasis) [Wetherald et al., 2001] .

[21] We have estimated an increase of 24 1022 J representing a volume mean warming of 0.09C of the 02000 m layer of the World Ocean. If this heat were instantly transferred to the lower 10 km of the global atmosphere it would result in a volume mean warming of this atmospheric layer by approximately 36C (65F). This transfer of course will not happen; earth's climate system simply does not work like this. But this computation does provide a perspective on the amount of heating that the earth system has undergone since 1955.


In other words, for point [21], without the oceans, the average global temp would be 121F rather that 56F...


Conclusions shouldn't be jumped to as a result of the above exerpts; the study should be read in its entirety to (possibly) begin to grasp the complexity of the subject...
These experts appear to think 36C = 65F.
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Old 23-02-2018, 14:31   #43
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Heavy icebreaker operating stern first? That's a new one to me. Icebreakers operate by heading into the ice and sliding the forward section of the vessel over the ice, breaking it. Stern first? How would the rudder and prop(s) survive?
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Old 23-02-2018, 14:52   #44
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Heavy icebreaker operating stern first? That's a new one to me. Icebreakers operate by heading into the ice and sliding the forward section of the vessel over the ice, breaking it. Stern first? How would the rudder and prop(s) survive?
powered via azipods.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azipod
Eduard Toll, Teekay's First Icebreaker LNG Carrier Newbuilding, is Delivered - Teekay
here are some shots of her in Ruddock.
http://teekay.com/blog/2017/01/26/la...r-lng-carrier/
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Old 23-02-2018, 15:38   #45
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
These experts appear to think 36C = 65F.
Why would you think this statement

"If this heat were instantly transferred to the lower 10 km of the global atmosphere it would result in a volume mean warming of this atmospheric layer by approximately 36C (65F)"

means '36C = 65F'?

I'm self-taught on this stuff and may be wrong here (so I hope I'll be corrected by someone who knows better), but as the comparison of F/C is not linear, I think the point is that, in the temperature range around liquid water, 36C is about equal to moving the F temp about 65 clicks (for lack of a better word).

For instance in the chart below, looking at the Celsius side, from 0 - 35 equals 32F - 95F, or 63 degrees F (95 -32 = 63).

If you go from the Fahrenheit side, starting at (since they don't have zero) about halfway between 5 and -4 F (-17.5C), and moving closest to 65F that they have, 68, (20C), we find that the equivalent is range is 37.5 C (17.5 + 20 = 37.5).

That's the best I can do...

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