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Old 14-04-2018, 08:23   #421
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
Just want to be sure, is this

A Startling New Discovery Could Destroy All Those Global Warming Doomsday Forecasts



the same article that you say


"...appropriately sources its factual assertions and generally makes it clear when its merely advancing its own opinion."


because there are no sources evident in the article that I could see.


If any of the unsourced, cherry-picked, and likely taken-out-of-context 'information' supplied in the article is accurate (and it might well be), a direct link to the paper itself would be the easiest and most efficient way to check the 'story's' veracity.


Unfortunately, the only links provided go right back to another AGW denial article in the IBD website itself (which of course provides revenue for IBD).


Since there are a few names given (is that your idea of a source?), if the paper(s) exists( ), I could probably find it (them) or at least it's (their) abstract(s), but what incentive have I been given to do so? A very loose collection of factoids and snippets, sorta compiled into a vague collection of insinuated conclusions and the alleged shortcomings of 'scientific paradigms'.





At this point, a sane, reasonable person would just let those facts speak for themselves, and relegate a non-credible source to the dustbin it belongs in...


But since you may have asked the three questions in good faith...

1) "...new sources of nitrogen & thus plant growth compelling, nonsensical, or merely inconsequential?"

If we knew what the discoveries were (see above) we could actually answer the question a little more concretely.

The only direct, large correlation I can think of off the top of my head might be the reduction of GHG caused by the production of nitrogenous fertilizer, which is produced electrically. The effects of the 'new nitrogen'
on plant growth as a carbon sink will likely be negligible; the nitrogen and it's availability and use by land plants hasn't changed. The effect on the models will have to be determined, but it is likely that it will be tiny.

2) Will anyone dare admit that one of the largest contributors to the reduction of CO2 over the past 10 years has been the US fracking industry?

Will anyone dare to admit that the constant over-simplification of such an extremely complex and dynamic set of systems is pervasive, and that such systems can't be quantified by such a simple ridiculous statement?

Here're two relatively short synopses on the subject.

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/20...nomy-grew.html

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-o...-gas-emissions

3) Will anyone get off their unicorns long enough to answer Reef's question how we can rapidly eliminate MMGW? Other than the significant contributions from the fracking industry that is, and its production of cheap, cleaner burning natural gas. (see #2 above). You see, without such solutions and a degree of pragmatism, the advocates of the CC agenda risk having their cause relegated to . . . well . . . the outer reaches of an enthusiast sailing forum with a pretty limited following. Just sayin' . . .

Again, so now there is a problem? Seems like quite a change from the denial claims ranging from 'there is no GW' to 'it's good' to it's not enough to matter' to 'man's to insignificant to change climate' etc., ad naseum.

If you think natural gas is a solution, you may want to review Jevons Paradox. More of a stop-gap stepping stone bridge to the future required by the very non-pragmatic policies followed over the last 25 or so years, instituted by a very short-sighted group of psuedo-profit hungry politicians and business 'leaders'.

As to your sudden claim to pragmatism, well I guess better late than never, but scientists and statesmen who recognized the scope of the problem have essentially always stressed the importance of pragmatic solutions.




Don't think "the advocates of the CC agenda risk having their cause relegated to . . . well . . . the outer reaches of an enthusiast sailing forum..." , as your linked IBD article suggests, is much to worry about...if AGW were to suddenly go away (an impossibility in the foreseeable future, by the way), there is a myriad of problems almost as pressing and seemingly intractable...
Thanks for the quick & concise answers. :-). I quoted them in toto in case folks may wish to re-read. ;-). So much for the discussion re: sinks, but I tried. I guess it’s back to sunspots. Newhaul — take it away!
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Old 14-04-2018, 09:23   #422
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Thanks for the quick & concise answers. :-). I quoted them in toto in case folks may wish to re-read. ;-). So much for the discussion re: sinks, but I tried. I guess it’s back to sunspots. Newhaul — take it away!
something funny to me at least is I have been saying that the amoc has been slowing for several years on these threads and was on every occasion challenged. Well it is slowing down . As expected .
Has to do with many forcing from gravitational to a waning magnetosphere .
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Old 14-04-2018, 17:00   #423
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
Oh, and 'yes', (provided 3-5 years is 'rapid' [apologies for the verbosity])...
Now that wasn't hard now, was it?

Ok, so, I'm on the side calling BS to "yes". Now we can start the debate.







Over to you...
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Old 16-04-2018, 04:28   #424
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

A brief mention of Erik de Jong's expedition last year

Two yachts become first ever vessels to enter Central Arctic Ocean without icebreaker support | The Independent

Quote:
Two yachts have become the first vessels in history to sail into the Central Arctic Ocean without icebreaker support in a fresh sign of how much sea ice has been lost.

Pen Hadow, a British polar explorer, Erik de Jong, a Dutch sailor, and their crews sailed to within 600 miles of the North Pole, reaching a latitude of more than 80 degrees north...

The sea ice is so thin or has disappeared completely that it is no longer possible to walk from Canada or Russia to the North Pole. But it is on course to become a possible sea journey.

Speaking from his yacht, the Bagheera, Mr Hadow told The Independent: “I believe sooner rather than later a yacht will sail to 90 degrees north.

“We’ve hit the buffers now, we’ve hit the main body of the sea ice, but we have been sailing in open waters quite happily...
But I'm pretty sure they made their whole story up, and took their photos and videos in Croatia and Hungary the same time that The Terror was filmed.
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Old 16-04-2018, 05:03   #425
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
A brief mention of Erik de Jong's expedition last year

Two yachts become first ever vessels to enter Central Arctic Ocean without icebreaker support | The Independent



But I'm pretty sure they made their whole story up, and took their photos and videos in Croatia and Hungary the same time that The Terror was filmed.
Not made up I'm sure, but certainly more compelling to the "cause" if you would round out your research a bit for those of us who prefer looking beyond mere headlines. Just for starters . . .

1. When was the last known time this area was navigable?

2. Was it before or after the start of the industrial revolution?

3. What reasons, in addition to higher temps, are attributed to the lack of ice, then & now?

Humans have always had an attraction if not zealotry towards religious or other "causes" they seem to have a need to believe in. Hopefully this one won't lead its faithful to self-immolation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/14/n...dead-fire.html

Suicide Note:

“Most humans on the planet now breathe air made unhealthy by fossil fuels, and many die early deaths as a result — my early death by fossil fuel reflects what we are doing to ourselves.”
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Old 16-04-2018, 05:50   #426
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
Now that wasn't hard now, was it?

Ok, so, I'm on the side calling BS to "yes". Now we can start the debate.


Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2010

1751 - 11 million tonnes

2010 - 33.6 billion tonnes

3,000 times more CO2 emissions

http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ftp/nd....1751_2010.ems
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Old 16-04-2018, 07:52   #427
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

So, today AGW's not a problem??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile
Humans have always had an attraction if not zealotry towards religious or other "causes" they seem to have a need to believe in.
To repeat...




Perhaps you should do a little research yourself and bring something more to the table than transparently leading, presumably disingenuous questions that demonstrate your own zealotry, not to mention the hypocrisy of certainty expressed by your apparently negotiable trust in the empirical, established sciences involved in verifying AGW...especially when compared to your obvious trust in the purveyors of criminal (in the secular, not legal sense [though that could be debated]) yellow journalism like Investors Business Daily or ClimateDepot. (how's that for expatiation?)

Pray tell, what -besides temperatures higher that it's melting temperature- is responsible for melting ice...no wait, I know!, it's icebreakers, air pressure and solar irradiance (oh, I guess that falls under 'temp' [but the ice's still melting whilst the irradiance is declining; I'm a litte confused about that one...I suppose this refers to projected, hypothetical effects]).
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Old 16-04-2018, 09:33   #428
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
So, today AGW's not a problem??

To repeat...




Perhaps you should do a little research yourself and bring something more to the table than transparently leading, presumably disingenuous questions that demonstrate your own zealotry, not to mention the hypocrisy of certainty expressed by your apparently negotiable trust in the empirical, established sciences involved in verifying AGW...especially when compared to your obvious trust in the purveyors of criminal (in the secular, not legal sense [though that could be debated]) yellow journalism like Investors Business Daily or ClimateDepot. (how's that for expatiation?)

Pray tell, what -besides temperatures higher that it's melting temperature- is responsible for melting ice...no wait, I know!, it's icebreakers, air pressure and solar irradiance (oh, I guess that falls under 'temp' [but the ice's still melting whilst the irradiance is declining; I'm a litte confused about that one...I suppose this refers to projected, hypothetical effects]).
AGW itself is not seriously disputed and is instead a political issue that has turned into religious-type zealotry for many. This necessarily stifles debate & thus encumbers learning, scientific or otherwise. The extent to which AGW is contributing to warming, and the impacts of that warming, are scientific issues. How we reduce the amount of CO2 & harmful pollutants entering the atmosphere, and how we adapt to environmental changes they may produce, are policy issues that are dependent on how the science continues to evolve.

These thread forums rarely get past the most basic & superficial issues, namely the politics. The best evidence of that is calling basic questions being asked as disingenuous, hypocritical, or coming from "deniers." It can only be explained if the zealotry reaches well beyond just AGW and involves beliefs that reject the entire economic & political systems that surround it. So I repeat, it's all about the politics, and AGW is merely the tail wagging the dog of much larger socioeconomic divisions within society.
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Old 16-04-2018, 13:11   #429
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2010

1751 - 11 million tonnes

2010 - 33.6 billion tonnes

3,000 times more CO2 emissions

http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ftp/nd....1751_2010.ems
Your stat's are 8 years out of date.

And out of context with the quoted post.
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Old 16-04-2018, 13:52   #430
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Your stat's are 8 years out of date.

And out of context with the quoted post.
You are correct about being 8 years out of date. The CDAIC web site is being moved. The previous web site has more current data. 2013 - 36 billion tonnes.

The later numbers are higher by shown within the context of the graph presented.
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Old 16-04-2018, 14:14   #431
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
1. When was the last known time this area was navigable?

2. Was it before or after the start of the industrial revolution?

3. What reasons, in addition to higher temps, are attributed to the lack of ice, then & now?
1. Other than heavy icebreakers or ultra light boats that can be pulled up and over the ice, no ships have been there. Many have tried in 18th, 19th en 20th century. Most famous expeditions were the one of the Karluk in 1913-16 and Captain the Long on the "Jeanette" in 1879-81. Both boats have not been more than a 100 miles from land, and were completely surrounded by impenetrable ice and got crushed. We went whistling till 470 miles off shore and had to meander quite a bit for the last 75 miles after that. But the majority was "open water" with big enough leads that you couldn't see the other side of. Here a picture taken at 80 degrees north, which is 480 miles north of point Barrow, the most northern point of the USA.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BYahZBoH...=arcticmission

2. It has not been navigable since humans have tried, which honestly is only been 150-170 years, no one had done it until last summer when we tried it. There is a vessel called "Tara Oceans", sir Peter Blakes old research vessel, they have nipped off a corner of the 200 miles zone, so technically they were first, even though they only nipped 10 or 20 miles off a corner.
Back in the early days, and actually as late as the 1970's, the summer ice edge was pretty much hugging the coast of Alaska, now it is often more than 300 or even 400 miles offshore. Russia is the same story. 20 years ago it was unimaginable to do it by small craft, now many boats transiting the North East Passage don't even get to see ice, not even on a distance.

3. Although never officially proven is my personal suspicion (and observation) that icebreaker activity helps the disappearing of ice as well.
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Old 16-04-2018, 14:19   #432
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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3. Although never officially proven is my personal suspicion (and observation) that icebreaker activity helps the disappearing of ice as well.
Erik NSIDC does not support your (and newhaul's) suspicion:

Quote:
An icebreaker cruising through the ice for 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) and leaving an ice-free wake of 10 meters (33 feet) would open an area of water 10 square kilometers (3.9 square miles) over the entire cruise. In contrast, the Arctic sea ice cover decreases by an average of over 9 million square kilometers or 3.5 million square miles each year during its melt season—an area larger than the contiguous United States. In total, researchers estimate that the number of icebreakers traversing the Arctic at any given time is usually less than three. So, Meier said, “The actual contribution is miniscule—only one part in a million of the total ice cover.”
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/iceligh...anging-climate
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Old 16-04-2018, 14:32   #433
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

You have quoted that many times before and I have already explained why I do not believe it.

Sure, when an ice breaker goes through the ice, it is just breaking the ice, pushes the lose blocks aside and those happily float back in the wake of the ice breaker. So technically speaking ice does not disappear when the ice breaker comes through.

But, ice erodes the fastest by waves and individual blocks rubbing against each other. In the some what open and lose path of the ice breaker, the wind has more grip on the ice and is creating waves. Very small ones at first, but waves nonetheless. The track becomes wider and the effect gets bigger and so on.

I have been in bays in Greenland and Ellesmere Island that historically were always the last ones to be breaking up, if they were breaking up at all. Now to my surprise some of them were sometimes completely ice free much earlier in the season. Turns out that an ice breaker had been in there a month or sometimes more before. And I have heard stories from inuits and hunters as well that when an ice breaker has been nearby that the water opens up much earlier than usual. When the ice breaker does not stop by that same year, than the break up of the season is more 'normal' as much as you can speak of normal in the current climate.

I believe the NSDIC is not impartial in this as a lot of their data comes from scientists aboard those icebreakers. How would it look for them if they admit that their science is adding to the problem at hand?

I agree that an ice free bay is no prove of anything, but it definitely means that ice breakers do have an influence, small or big I won't be able to judge it. For some small villages up north that rely in the sea ice for hunting it is absolutely devastating if an ice breaker comes by, on the total picture of the melting Arctic it might not be a huge contribution, but I believe it is a contribution nonetheless.
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Old 16-04-2018, 15:15   #434
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Wind on the water creates current, increases heat exchange with the water (warming the water), and reduces temperature gradients (in the water). The net effect is increased convective heat exchange between the ice and the water melting the ice faster. The melting is accelerated as time passes and the leads become larger.
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Old 16-04-2018, 15:37   #435
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

You wrote it a lot prettier than me, thanks!
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