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Old 31-03-2018, 15:08   #301
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Well, the ice drifts with an average speed of 50-80 miles a day, so the thickness at the exact north pole changes from hour to hour.
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Old 01-04-2018, 11:15   #302
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
Well, the ice drifts with an average speed of 50-80 miles a day, so the thickness at the exact north pole changes from hour to hour.
This article implies that ice movement along the Transpolar Drift may amount to ~5 miles per day.

Ice-locked ship to drift over North Pole | BBC News
Quote:
...The 2,500km (1,550-mile) trip, to begin in 2019, is likely to take a year. ...


Possible route. The drift would start in the East Siberian Sea. RV Polastern would be taken over the top of the world and be released by the sea-ice in the Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/...rculation.html
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Arctic sea ice circulation and drift speed: Decadal trends and ocean currents



Figure 5
Changes in the mean circulation and sea level pressure (SLP) distribution for the three periods: 1982–2009, 1982–1991, and 1992–2000. (a–c) The mean winter (October‐May) fields, (d–f) the winter difference fields, (g–i) the mean summer (June‐September) fields, and (j–l) the summer difference fields. The zero difference SLP contour is in bold and positive (negative) difference isobars are shown as solid (dashed) lines. (Contour intervals: 2 hPa for the mean fields and 1 hPa for the difference fields.)
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Old 01-04-2018, 15:31   #303
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
The ice should be 4.5 to 5m thick around the pole. That is evidence that there is almost no multi year ice left anymore.
Not according to the Russians. fair bit of red showing here:
http://www.aari.ru/resources/d0015/a...8/20180327.gif

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Old 01-04-2018, 19:38   #304
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Not according to the Russians. fair bit of red showing here:
http://www.aari.ru/resources/d0015/a...8/20180327.gif

thanks StuM I had forgotten this site. Time to brush up on my Russian
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Old 02-04-2018, 10:32   #305
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

I guess simply sailing through the NWP is just getting too tame.

The 2014-2018 Sedna Epic Expedition

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Coinciding with the 100th anniversary of womenís right to vote in Canada, a team of passionate sea women divers will embark on a two-summer journey in 2018, snorkeling over 3,000 kilometres through frigid arctic seas from Pond Inlet, Nunavut, to Inuvik, Northwest Territories. Supported by an expedition vessel equipped with rigid hull inflatable boats, the snorkelers will scout and document the impacts of global warming on this fragile arctic ecosystem and on the aboriginal peoplesí traditional ways of life...

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Old 03-04-2018, 05:09   #306
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

2 deg C cap on global warming won't save Arctic sea ice | The Singapore Strait Times

According to two separate studies published in the journal Nature Climate Change, in a 2C world, the Arctic Ocean would be ice-free by the end of the century roughly one-in-four years, whereas if warming does not exceed 1.5 deg C, the odds drop to one-in-40.

The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only a consequence of global warming, but also an accelerant when millions of square kilometres of snow reflecting the Sun's radiation back into space are replaced with dark blue ocean that absorbs it instead.
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Old 03-04-2018, 06:57   #307
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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2 deg C cap on global warming won't save Arctic sea ice | The Singapore Strait Times

According to two separate studies published in the journal Nature Climate Change, in a 2C world, the Arctic Ocean would be ice-free by the end of the century roughly one-in-four years, whereas if warming does not exceed 1.5 deg C, the odds drop to one-in-40.

The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only a consequence of global warming, but also an accelerant when millions of square kilometres of snow reflecting the Sun's radiation back into space are replaced with dark blue ocean that absorbs it instead.
problem is there is no link to any scientific study papers in the aforementioned propaganda piece.
( I say propaganda due to no facts that can be verified are mentioned in the article. )
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Old 03-04-2018, 07:06   #308
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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problem is there is no link to any scientific study papers in the aforementioned propaganda piece.
( I say propaganda due to no facts that can be verified are mentioned in the article. )
As a courtesy to people like you who seem unable to do their own research, I provided the links to the two papers in my write-up.

It is unfortunate that you seem very quick to use terms like "propaganda" and "no facts that can be verified" every time you run into an idea that you apparently disagree with.
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Old 03-04-2018, 07:12   #309
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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As a courtesy to people like you who seem unable to do their own research, I provided the links to the two papers in my write-up.

It is unfortunate that you seem very quick to use terms like "propaganda" and "no facts that can be verified" every time you run into an idea that you apparently disagree with.
my apologies the links you provided did not show on my phone earlier. Now on my work tablet they did show. I will disseminate the data and report my findings. Again my apologies. To you.
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Old 05-04-2018, 05:38   #310
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Old-school technology for when your GPS fails

Vikings may have used crystals to navigate across the Atlantic | Washington Post

Before the Viking had compasses they may have tracked the sun during cloudy weather using a crystal called sunstones. When sunlight travels through the atmosphere, it forms polarized rings, with the sun at the center like a bull's eye. Crystals like calcite, also called Iceland spar, can reveal the direction of polarization. Rotating such a crystal in front of our eyes to and fro, the intensity of skylight transmitted through the crystal changes periodically. The sunstone brightens as it aligns with polarized skylight, even on cloudy days. When the sunstone is brightest, the crystal points at the sun, allowing a theoretical Viking ship to get its bearings.


Iceland spar, possibly the Icelandic medieval sunstone used to
locate the sun in the sky when obstructed from view.
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Old 05-04-2018, 15:33   #311
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Re: Old-school technology for when your GPS fails

The death of modern science!
"The scientists modeled the properties of sunstone crystals "

Compare that to seven years ago when the same conclusions were drawn from real experiments:

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/...ation-science/
The team then recruited 20 volunteers to take turns looking at the crystal outside on a cloudy day and measure how accurately they could estimate the position of the hidden sun.

Navigators subdivide the horizon by 360 degrees, and the team found that the volunteers could locate the sun's position to within 1 degree.

The results confirm "that the Icelandic spar is an ideal crystal, and that it can be used with great precision" for locating the sun, said ecologist Susanne Akesson of Sweden's University of Lund, who was not part of Ropars's research team.
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Old 06-04-2018, 06:17   #312
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Japanís first ice-breaking LNG tanker enters service in Arctic Ocean | Japan Times

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Shipping company Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. put an ice-breaking tanker into service in the Arctic Ocean on Thursday to transport liquefied natural gas from a Russian plant to Europe, becoming the first Japanese firm to own and operate such a vessel.

The Vladimir Rusanov will deliver LNG from a gas plant in Sabbeta on Russiaís Yamal Peninsula to a port in Rotterdam in the Netherlands using an Arctic route that shortens the travel time between Europe and Asia.

The vessel, named after a Russian Arctic explorer and geologist, is one of three ice-breaking tankers Mitsui has ordered for the Yamal LNG project led by Russian natural gas producer Novatek.

The project, which began operations in December last year, will involve an order for 15 of the ice-breaking LNG tankers with an eye toward expanding routes eastward to Asia...
It seems strange that the Russians are shipping their LNG to Europe, while Norway is shipping its LNG to South Korea. Maybe South Korea does not consider Russia to be a reliable trading partner?
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Old 06-04-2018, 06:31   #313
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Re: Old-school technology for when your GPS fails

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
The death of modern science!
"The scientists modeled the properties of sunstone crystals "
The "models are not science" meme is common among those who are dismissive of science. In fact, models are central to science. You remember learning about Bohr's model of the atom in ligh school.

https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/reso...ific-modelling
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Old 06-04-2018, 16:03   #314
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Re: Old-school technology for when your GPS fails

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The "models are not science" meme is common among those who are dismissive of science. In fact, models are central to science. You remember learning about Bohr's model of the atom in ligh school.

https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/reso...ific-modelling
The first sentence of your link:

In science, a model is a representation of an idea, an object or even a process or a system that is used to describe and explain phenomena that cannot be experienced directly.

Using models instead of experiment when you can experience the phenoma directly is indeed bad science.
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Old 06-04-2018, 19:08   #315
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Re: Old-school technology for when your GPS fails

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
The first sentence of your link:

In science, a model is a representation of an idea, an object or even a process or a system that is used to describe and explain phenomena that cannot be experienced directly.

Using models instead of experiment when you can experience the phenoma directly is indeed bad science.
Just because you say it is doesn't make it so...

Since the sentence you have singled out is in the middle of the article, I assume you read at least to that point.

So the real questions would seem to be,

Do you understand what was modeled?

Is your 'bad science' indicator attuned to 'bad science' or is it just an example of a sort of 'confirmation prejudice' against Sailoar, jackdale, the Washington Post, et al., where anything you either dislike or disagree with is bad?

Do you have access to a time machine so the researchers can go back to the Vikings time to duplicate the conditions and make the voyages? If not. the only way to do 'good science' for this question is by modeling; even if the researcher's model required them to secure funding to finance 36,000 (the number of model runs performed in the study) 'historically accurate' Viking voyages, complete with crews and to, I suppose, ensure the 'scientific goodness', their cultural upbringing and support environments...(I can hear the howls of protect over that 'waste of the taxpayers dollar'), it would still be a model, because it wasn't an observation of the real thing.

Taken to a simplistic extreme, even mercury rising or falling in a capillary tube as a result of changes in temperature or pressure is a model, as is the vision that you use to see it, so I guess, by default, all science is bad science...happy now?
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