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Old 27-03-2018, 14:05   #271
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Guess now is not a good time for boating in the arctic
https://www.maritime-executive.com/a...ice#gs.h84t_UE
As an aside look at the sea ice area from the winter minimums from 2006 to 2008. Now look at the 2016 to 2018 I see a similarity but we will need next years max to complete the picture.
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Old 27-03-2018, 15:52   #272
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Guess now is not a good time for boating in the arctic
https://www.maritime-executive.com/a...ice#gs.h84t_UE
As an aside look at the sea ice area from the winter minimums from 2006 to 2008. Now look at the 2016 to 2018 I see a similarity but we will need next years max to complete the picture.
Since the maximum was March 17, not suprising. The is a lot is wind blown ice out there.

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Due to the situation and the wind direction, it is not possible for other ships to sail to Sarfaq Ittuk for help. The risk of such an attempt would likely result in two ships stuck in the ice rather than just one, says Arctic Umiaq Line.

The ship was on her way to Greenland's capital, Nuuk; she regularly sails along Greenland's west coast.
2006-2008 is a great cherry pick. Good on ya.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/c...sea-ice-graph/

Current conditions are more than 2 SD below the mean.

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Old 27-03-2018, 16:59   #273
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Since the maximum was March 17, not suprising. The is a lot is wind blown ice out there.



2006-2008 is a great cherry pick. Good on ya.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/c...sea-ice-graph/

Current conditions are more than 2 SD below the mean.

jack 2006 was even lower than this year to so it is not a cherry pick it is a comparative to current conditions.
As far as the vessel stuck in the ice I did read the story but is is still comical
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Old 27-03-2018, 18:49   #274
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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jack 2006 was even lower than this year to so it is not a cherry pick it is a comparative to current conditions.
As far as the vessel stuck in the ice I did read the story but is is still comical
2006 is ONLY one lower. That defines cherry pick.

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Cherry Picking
(also known as: suppressed evidence, fallacy of incomplete evidence, argument by selective observation, argument by half-truth, card stacking, fallacy of exclusion, ignoring the counter evidence, one-sided assessment, slanting, one-sidedness)

Description: When only select evidence is presented in order to persuade the audience to accept a position, and evidence that would go against the position is withheld. The stronger the withheld evidence, the more fallacious the argument.
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Old 27-03-2018, 18:58   #275
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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2006 is ONLY one lower. That defines cherry pick.
while I have internet here goes look at 2006 then 2007 then 2008 winter maximums
Now look at 2017 then 2018 winter maximums now we will have to see till next year if there is actually an emergent pattern or not but if you go the other way a year there does seem to be the earmarks for a pattern. That's what I was pointing out but you apparently chose not to actually read my entire post on this theorem of mine.
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Old 27-03-2018, 19:50   #276
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Newhaul,

What are you trying to prove?
The sea ice up north is disappearing extremely fast, and has been doing so for 30 years. It seems to me that you are trying to prove that it is not happening, or that it is not as bad as everybody is saying?

May I wake you up? It is a lot worse than everybody is saying, I've seen it disappear with my own eyes over 26 visits over a period 22 years, starting 29 years ago...
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Old 28-03-2018, 04:13   #277
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

To me, it doesn't seem that the maximum arctic sea ice extent for a particular year, by itself, is a good indicator of the next summer's minimum sea ice extent. Here is a chart showing Arctic sea ice extent for 2012 (record minimum), 2013, 2017, 2018 (so far).


https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/c...sea-ice-graph/

As you can see, maximum extent for 2012 and 2013 were about the same, and both were near the 1981-2010 median, yet 2012 became a record-breaker, and 2013, while fairly low, wasn't an eye-popper.

The other two years I've shown, 2017 and this year, are both similar for setting record-levels for low maximums. Yet 2017, while certainly having a very low minimum, still wasn't very close to setting a record minimum. I wonder what this year will bring?
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Old 28-03-2018, 05:23   #278
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I wonder what this year will bring?
That's easy; continued sea ice extents well below the 1981-2010 interdecile range...
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Old 28-03-2018, 07:35   #279
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
To me, it doesn't seem that the maximum arctic sea ice extent for a particular year, by itself, is a good indicator of the next summer's minimum sea ice extent. Here is a chart showing Arctic sea ice extent for 2012 (record minimum), 2013, 2017, 2018 (so far).


https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/c...sea-ice-graph/

As you can see, maximum extent for 2012 and 2013 were about the same, and both were near the 1981-2010 median, yet 2012 became a record-breaker, and 2013, while fairly low, wasn't an eye-popper.

The other two years I've shown, 2017 and this year, are both similar for setting record-levels for low maximums. Yet 2017, while certainly having a very low minimum, still wasn't very close to setting a record minimum. I wonder what this year will bring?
everyone is so focused on the last 3 years only I am looking at most years for patterns now if you do look at lets say 2005 in to 2008 you will see a similar pattern to what we have happening now . We need more data to confirm the pattern. ( at least one more full cycle)

( melt and freeze)
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Old 28-03-2018, 07:57   #280
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
everyone is so focused on the last 3 years only I am looking at most years for patterns now if you do look at lets say 2005 in to 2008 you will see a similar pattern to what we have happening now . We need more data to confirm the pattern. ( at least one more full cycle)

( melt and freeze)
2008-2018



1994-2004



1979-1989

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Old 28-03-2018, 10:16   #281
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
everyone is so focused on the last 3 years only I am looking at most years for patterns now if you do look at lets say 2005 in to 2008 you will see a similar pattern to what we have happening now . We need more data to confirm the pattern. ( at least one more full cycle)

( melt and freeze)
OK - 59 years of data. Find the pattern

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Old 28-03-2018, 10:41   #282
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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OK - 59 years of data. Find the pattern

you mean besides falsified data right ?
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Old 28-03-2018, 11:14   #283
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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you mean besides falsified data right ?
Nothing falsified. You probably are unaware that the parameters for ice coverage change from 10% to 15%. Tony Heller is aware but ignores it.
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Old 28-03-2018, 11:43   #284
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Nothing falsified. You probably are unaware that the parameters for ice coverage change from 10% to 15%. Tony Heller is aware but ignores it.
nothing to do with Steve Goddard
This report is from the U.S. Department of energy
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Old 28-03-2018, 11:43   #285
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Thee statistics are completely useless if you also don't mention the estimated open water percentage with all the graphs.
I know from personal experience that the area's of open water in 'ice covered' area's have at least doubled in surface area (more likely tripled), but you don't see that back in any of the graphs.

My personal estimate is that around 10-15% of the so called ice covered area in the winter is actually open water. That used to be less than 5%. On a total ice cover of 6.5x10^6 km2, that makes about 650.000 km2 in difference of actual ice cover.

Combine that with an average thickness loss of more than 50% and the amount of ice in the Arctic is devastatingly low.
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