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Old 20-03-2018, 20:51   #241
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
It would be more accurate to say that Jackdale's chart is deficient in that it uses 10 fewer data points than are required to derive climatological normals according to the accepted WMI standard.

The "climatological normal" that should be in use when reporting current data is 1981-2010.
The "climatological standard normal" that should be in use when reporting current data is the period 1961-1990, this will change in 2021 to 1991-2020.

(Pity we don't have accurate data from 1961 onwards, it would be interestng to see what things looked like under that scenario )
I posted that graph from DMI because newhaul claimed that DMI was not politicized. Normally I post NSIDC or PIOMAS data which newhaul believes is corrupted by politics.

PIOMAS volume data uses a 38 year mean. Only one year 2010, an El Nino year is lower that 2018.



NSIDC ice extent data uses a 30 year mean and shows the current extent as 2 SD below the mean, i.e. 97.5% of the records are higher.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/c...sea-ice-graph/

Long term NSIDC also uses a 30 year mean.



That shows a steady decline. The graph is standardized to show a 15% ice coverage. 10% was used until about 20 years.
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Old 20-03-2018, 21:38   #242
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/1.4930679

Climate El Nino

https://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/sun-enso.htm
When Forbes starts reporting it people should listen

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedo.../#2e4c88b18de1
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonco.../#3ae7cbf134dc
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Old 20-03-2018, 21:43   #243
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Here is the ice core data.



What the heck happened?
they severely over estimated GHG forcings. That's what happened.
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Old 21-03-2018, 01:10   #244
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Jackdale you must be a saint to spend so much time trying to have a discussion based on science with those who don't care to understand any science, but that's not my question.

Is there anyplace we can discuss boats doing the Northwest Passage or Northern Sea Route (NE Passage)?
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Old 21-03-2018, 03:09   #245
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Richard I think you have to start it yourself and make clear its about boats.. BTW Dauntless still in winter sleep?
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Old 21-03-2018, 06:10   #246
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Dauntlessny View Post
Jackdale you must be a saint to spend so much time trying to have a discussion based on science with those who don't care to understand any science, but that's not my question.

Is there anyplace we can discuss boats doing the Northwest Passage or Northern Sea Route (NE Passage)?
This was supposed to be the place. I am trying to stick to the NWP passage issues in this forum. But it keeps getting side tracked.

For anyone contemplating the transit, knowing the current conditions and looking at the next 6 months is crucial. Waiting until September as one poster suggested just does not work.

The NSR route discussion was put on hold by the moderators, I accept some responsibility for that happening.
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Old 21-03-2018, 08:08   #247
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Lets hope the global warming continues. We are supposed to be entering another ice age, that means there will be not enough water for our boats. Imagine the Canadians migrating south, the Mexicans will have to build a wall to keep yeall northerners out.

Good argument between the Nutters and the Deniers though, I was hoping to read this post about the NW Passage after viewing all I can find on it via youtube.
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Old 21-03-2018, 08:51   #248
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Lets hope the global warming continues. We are supposed to be entering another ice age, that means there will be not enough water for our boats. Imagine the Canadians migrating south, the Mexicans will have to build a wall to keep yeall northerners out.

Good argument between the Nutters and the Deniers though, I was hoping to read this post about the NW Passage after viewing all I can find on it via youtube.
Peter - I assume you live in a coastal location. To where do you plan on migrating as a result of rising sea levels?
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Old 21-03-2018, 09:08   #249
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Peter - I assume you live in a coastal location. To where do you plan on migrating as a result of rising sea levels?
The boat will rise another 1inch

I can still go an see the same rocks as I did 54 years ago when I first started sailing with dad without any noticeable difference.
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Old 21-03-2018, 09:14   #250
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Peter - I assume you live in a coastal location. To where do you plan on migrating as a result of rising sea levels?
depends on where you take measurements from .
Many tidal gates actually are now showing a drop in sea level.
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Old 21-03-2018, 09:23   #251
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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depends on where you take measurements from .
Many tidal gates actually are now showing a drop in sea level.
Show me the many. The tidal stations in Alaska are subject to isostatic rebound.
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Old 21-03-2018, 09:25   #252
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by peter57 View Post
The boat will rise another 1inch

I can still go an see the same rocks as I did 54 years ago when I first started sailing with dad without any noticeable difference.


Sea Level
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Old 21-03-2018, 13:40   #253
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Show me the many. The tidal stations in Alaska are subject to isostatic rebound.
climate4you OceanTemperaturesAndSeaLevel
Do the research its here
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Old 21-03-2018, 13:42   #254
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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this is from satellite that has a 24cm margin of error due to varying orbital positioning
Due to the swelling or shrinking of the ionosphere .
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Old 21-03-2018, 15:15   #255
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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I saw it on notrickszone already.
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