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Old 14-03-2018, 07:25   #211
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
13 pages of graphs, bickering, facts, made up facts, partial info and what else. I am a bit lost as to what this all has to do with the NWP?
Indeed. Thread drift is normal and natural, but the argument about whether global warming exists or not overwhelms the main subject of this thread and needs to go somewhere else. Time for you guys who are interested in arguing about it to "get a room" -- please start a new thread, in the appropriate forum and keep the discussion polite and respectful. Let's keep this thread focused on concrete conditions, WHATEVER THE CAUSE, in the NW Passage and other Arctic areas, something many of us are keenly interested in.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
Facts:
- Sea ice is disappearing scary fast.
- Navigable seasons for sailing yachts up north are getting longer every year.
- Transit of the NWP gets easier every year.
- Fall storms are getting more intense and more frequent every year.
- Summer air and water temperatures are increasing as fast as the ice is disappearing
- More rain in the summer months than snow where it used to be the other way around.
- Way more and way bigger leads in the ice, hence more open water, causing more and faster erosion of sea ice.

These facts are not based on any graph, any scientific source or any satellite data, but are based on my own observations that are written down in my logbooks of 22 years in the northern waters by sailboat.

The NWP will not start to open up for another 4 months, until than, no small boats will get into the area for the next few months, we are usually among the first boats up there.
Thank you, this is really interesting and valuable information. Please keep it coming.
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Old 14-03-2018, 12:59   #212
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
Indeed. Thread drift is normal and natural, but the argument about whether global warming exists or not overwhelms the main subject of this thread and needs to go somewhere else. Time for you guys who are interested in arguing about it to "get a room" -- please start a new thread, in the appropriate forum and keep the discussion polite and respectful. Let's keep this thread focused on concrete conditions, WHATEVER THE CAUSE, in the NW Passage and other Arctic areas, something many of us are keenly interested in.
Good plan. I will let someone else start a Climate Change discussion.
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Old 20-03-2018, 06:25   #213
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

A warm approach to the equinox | NSIDC

Late freeze-up
This year, the freeze-up started earlier than average over much of the central Arctic Ocean, near average within Hudson and Baffin Bays, but significantly later than average elsewhere. Freeze-up was delayed by more than a month later than average within the Chukchi and Bering Seas on the Pacific side, and within the Barents and East Greenland Seas on the Atlantic side. In these regions freeze-up happened after December. Later freeze-up impacts sea ice thickness, reducing the number of days over which sea ice can grow during winter.

These graphs show the average Arctic Ocean ice freeze-up dates for 1979 to 2017 (top)
and the number of days that freeze-up occurred earlier (cool colors)
or later (warm colors) than average (bottom).
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

February 2018 compared to previous years

Monthly 2018 ice extent for 1979 to 2018 shows a decline of 3.1 percent per decade.
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Old 20-03-2018, 06:50   #214
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
A warm approach to the equinox | NSIDC

Late freeze-up
This year, the freeze-up started earlier than average over much of the central Arctic Ocean, near average within Hudson and Baffin Bays, but significantly later than average elsewhere. Freeze-up was delayed by more than a month later than average within the Chukchi and Bering Seas on the Pacific side, and within the Barents and East Greenland Seas on the Atlantic side. In these regions freeze-up happened after December. Later freeze-up impacts sea ice thickness, reducing the number of days over which sea ice can grow during winter.

These graphs show the average Arctic Ocean ice freeze-up dates for 1979 to 2017 (top)
and the number of days that freeze-up occurred earlier (cool colors)
or later (warm colors) than average (bottom).
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

February 2018 compared to previous years

Monthly 2018 ice extent for 1979 to 2018 shows a decline of 3.1 percent per decade.
good post and as I have said before extent needs volume to be actually meaningful.
This is a closeup of the nwp volumes as of yesterday according to dmi
DMI Modelled ice thickness if you notice most of the nwp has between 3 and 4 meter thick ice this year.
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Old 20-03-2018, 09:40   #215
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
good post and as I have said before extent needs volume to be actually meaningful.
This is a closeup of the nwp volumes as of yesterday according to dmi
DMI Modelled ice thickness if you notice most of the nwp has between 3 and 4 meter thick ice this year.
Duh. This is the time of the year when there is the most ice in the NWP. It will start to melt very soon, and it is starting from record lows: about 4 SD below the mean.



Sea ice extent in recent years for the northern hemisphere. The grey shaded area corresponds to the climate mean plus/minus 2 standard deviations.

The ice thickness in the NWP is no where near 3-4 meters.
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Old 20-03-2018, 11:04   #216
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

I don't believe for a second that the NWP ice is 3 to 4m thick. More like 1m, if that!
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Old 20-03-2018, 11:06   #217
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
I don't believe for a second that the NWP ice is 3 to 4m thick. More like 1m, if that!
That is what I see as well.
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Old 20-03-2018, 11:09   #218
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

One reason why extent is important is that less ice extent means that the albedo effect is lessened resulting in more warming of the darker water.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/...es/albedo.html
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Old 20-03-2018, 12:06   #219
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
I don't believe for a second that the NWP ice is 3 to 4m thick. More like 1m, if that!
I'm just basing my statement on the numbers from dmi of sea ice volums
Which is within standard deviations
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Old 20-03-2018, 12:10   #220
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
One reason why extent is important is that less ice extent means that the albedo effect is lessened resulting in more warming of the darker water.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/...es/albedo.html
albedo also is dependent on snow cover which right now is well over the norm for the northern hemisphere
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcove...ay=78&ui_set=2
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Old 20-03-2018, 12:12   #221
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Next jack you will be saying we are in a la Nina period
Yes we are but that has to do with the lack of sun spots and low solar activity.
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Old 20-03-2018, 12:19   #222
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Duh. This is the time of the year when there is the most ice in the NWP. It will start to melt very soon, and it is starting from record lows: about 4 SD below the mean.



Sea ice extent in recent years for the northern hemisphere. The grey shaded area corresponds to the climate mean plus/minus 2 standard deviations.

The ice thickness in the NWP is no where near 3-4 meters.
interesting the chart I have seems to say the same as to area however it seems to be a lot closer to the deviations than yours.
http://data.meereisportal.de/maps/la...xtent_n_en.png
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Old 20-03-2018, 12:23   #223
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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albedo also is dependent on snow cover which right now is well over the norm for the northern hemisphere
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcove...ay=78&ui_set=2
That graphic covers land only. It has no information about The Arctic Ocean.
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Old 20-03-2018, 12:25   #224
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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interesting the chart I have seems to say the same as to area however it seems to be a lot closer to the deviations than yours.
http://data.meereisportal.de/maps/la...xtent_n_en.png
I thought you liked the DMI data; that is why I choose it. Are you now rejecting it?
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Old 20-03-2018, 12:34   #225
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

it is not within standard deviation. The gray area is the average from a time period in which there was already excessive melt going on. The 1900 to 1950 average (or earlier) would be the standard deviation.

and reading the picture you showed, the ice is not 3-4m thinck. Which is also not possible in the waters of the North West Passage as that is practically all first years ice. The thickest sea-ice of the Arctic is north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island. That reaches about 5m at most, not counting local anomalies due to the pressure ridges.
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