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Old 13-03-2018, 12:18   #181
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Pangnirtung water temperature is actually-1.7℃
https://www.seatemperature.org/north...angnirtung.htm which I must agree is above the freezing temperature of sea water. ( by .2℃)
I gave you both temperature sets. The first, 0C, includes in-situ measurments; the second, -1.7C does not. Why would you asset the second is the "actual"? It has no in-situ data.
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Old 13-03-2018, 12:27   #182
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
where did they get those temperature measurements?
And was that before or after it was adjusted for public release?
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Old 13-03-2018, 12:34   #183
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Here is my personal prediction for the global temperature for 2018 it will be averaged oh to be at baseline or even possibility up to .20℃ below the 1981-2010 average.
Bases off of my interpretation of the works of Dr zharkova , Dr Dilley , Dr Ben Davis, and many more specialist in their respective fields. Lets just see where we are next February shall we
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Old 13-03-2018, 13:02   #184
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

13 pages of graphs, bickering, facts, made up facts, partial info and what else. I am a bit lost as to what this all has to do with the NWP?

Facts:
- Sea ice is disappearing scary fast.
- Navigable seasons for sailing yachts up north are getting longer every year.
- Transit of the NWP gets easier every year.
- Fall storms are getting more intense and more frequent every year.
- Summer air and water temperatures are increasing as fast as the ice is disappearing
- More rain in the summer months than snow where it used to be the other way around.
- Way more and way bigger leads in the ice, hence more open water, causing more and faster erosion of sea ice.

These facts are not based on any graph, any scientific source or any satellite data, but are based on my own observations that are written down in my logbooks of 22 years in the northern waters by sailboat.

The NWP will not start to open up for another 4 months, until than, no small boats will get into the area for the next few months, we are usually among the first boats up there.
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Old 13-03-2018, 13:18   #185
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
13 pages of graphs, bickering, facts, made up facts, partial info and what else. I am a bit lost as to what this all has to do with the NWP?

Facts:
- Sea ice is disappearing scary fast.
- Navigable seasons for sailing yachts up north are getting longer every year.
- Transit of the NWP gets easier every year.
- Fall storms are getting more intense and more frequent every year.
- Summer air and water temperatures are increasing as fast as the ice is disappearing
- More rain in the summer months than snow where it used to be the other way around.
- Way more and way bigger leads in the ice, hence more open water, causing more and faster erosion of sea ice.

These facts are not based on any graph, any scientific source or any satellite data, but are based on my own observations that are written down in my logbooks of 22 years in the northern waters by sailboat.

The NWP will not start to open up for another 4 months, until than, no small boats will get into the area for the next few months, we are usually among the first boats up there.
your logs are actual observed conditions so IMO much more important than any studies over the last 2q years.
First I would love to read your logged observations .
Secondly I would like to see any other logs of actual observations hopefully spanning at least a century or more when placed together.
I always defer to actual private citizens in biased observations.
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Old 13-03-2018, 16:07   #186
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Here is my personal prediction for the global temperature for 2018 it will be averaged oh to be at baseline or even possibility up to .20℃ below the 1981-2010 average.
Bases off of my interpretation of the works of Dr zharkova , Dr Dilley , Dr Ben Davis, and many more specialist in their respective fields. Lets just see where we are next February shall we
You are predicting a .40 decrease from current temperatures.

On Zharkova: https://theconversation.com/the-mini...nication-45037

On David Dilley:
Quote:
During 2008 and 2009 the first stage of global cooling will cool the world’s temperatures to those observed during the years from the 1940s through the 1970s. By the year 2023 global climate will become similar to the colder temperatures experienced during the 1800s.
David Dilley Predicts Global Cooling Now - Jennifer Marohasy

2008 was the start of WARMING trend.



Ben Davis?
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Old 13-03-2018, 16:08   #187
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
where did they get those temperature measurements?
And was that before or after it was adjusted for public release?
I gave you the link to the source of the graph.
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Old 13-03-2018, 16:12   #188
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik de Jong View Post
13 pages of graphs, bickering, facts, made up facts, partial info and what else. I am a bit lost as to what this all has to do with the NWP?

Facts:
- Sea ice is disappearing scary fast.
- Navigable seasons for sailing yachts up north are getting longer every year.
- Transit of the NWP gets easier every year.
- Fall storms are getting more intense and more frequent every year.
- Summer air and water temperatures are increasing as fast as the ice is disappearing
- More rain in the summer months than snow where it used to be the other way around.
- Way more and way bigger leads in the ice, hence more open water, causing more and faster erosion of sea ice.

These facts are not based on any graph, any scientific source or any satellite data, but are based on my own observations that are written down in my logbooks of 22 years in the northern waters by sailboat.

The NWP will not start to open up for another 4 months, until than, no small boats will get into the area for the next few months, we are usually among the first boats up there.
Thanks for the personal observations that support the scientific data.
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Old 13-03-2018, 16:18   #189
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
You are predicting a .40 decrease from current temperatures.

On Zharkova: https://theconversation.com/the-mini...nication-45037

On David Dilley:


David Dilley Predicts Global Cooling Now - Jennifer Marohasy

2008 was the start of WARMING trend.



Ben Davis?
on David Dilley more current but still a couple years old.
From 2015. https://youtu.be/w4hbKF5-qUE
here is a more current I interview with Dr zharkova
https://youtu.be/_wB46mgJrzI from earlier this year.

Ben Davis is an astrophysicist as well but outside the mainstream

No not exactly predicting a .4℃ drop but up to a .4℃ drop
The month of February was already down to .20℃ above baseline by UAH measures.
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Old 13-03-2018, 16:33   #190
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
The month of February was already down to .20℃ above baseline by UAH measures.
Duh? I read the graph I posted.

You do know we are in a LA Nina event, I hope.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
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Old 13-03-2018, 16:38   #191
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Newhaul - some science by solar scientists for you

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum
Sarah Ineson, Amanda C. Maycock, Lesley J. Gray, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone, Jerald W. Harder, Jeff R. Knight, Mike Lockwood, James C. Manners & Richard A. Wood
Nature Communications volume 6, Article number: 7535 (2015)
doi:10.1038/ncomms8535
Published online:
23 June 2015

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535

Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age
Mike Lockwood Mat Owens Ed Hawkins Gareth S Jones Ilya Usoskin
Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 58, Issue 2, 1 April 2017, Pages 2.17–2.23, https://doi.org/10.1093/astrogeo/atx057
Published: 01 April 2017

https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/ar...2/2.17/3074082
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Old 13-03-2018, 16:44   #192
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

newhaul - Can you provide a link to Ben Davis' publications? If you have done so previously, I apologize.
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Old 13-03-2018, 16:46   #193
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Newhaul - some science by solar scientists for you

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum
Sarah Ineson, Amanda C. Maycock, Lesley J. Gray, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone, Jerald W. Harder, Jeff R. Knight, Mike Lockwood, James C. Manners & Richard A. Wood
Nature Communications volume 6, Article number: 7535 (2015)
doi:10.1038/ncomms8535
Published online:
23 June 2015

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535

Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age
Mike Lockwood Mat Owens Ed Hawkins Gareth S Jones Ilya Usoskin
Astronomy & Geophysics, Volume 58, Issue 2, 1 April 2017, Pages 2.17–2.23, https://doi.org/10.1093/astrogeo/atx057
Published: 01 April 2017

https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/ar...2/2.17/3074082
jack just like what design of sailboat each of us likes so are our views on the climate. I do remember it being cold and I mean cold all over in the 1970's
Also I remember bro g taught about the heat of the 1930's both in school and from my parents and grandparents who all actually experienced it. But look at a temperature graph written within the last 10 years or so and neither exists anymore.
Lets see where we are in a year . And I'm out
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Old 13-03-2018, 16:51   #194
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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newhaul - Can you provide a link to Ben Davis' publications? If you have done so previously, I apologize.
No problem and I don't remember if I have or not so here is one of his webpages.
Suspicious0bservers – Climate Change | Space Weather | Astronomy – Your Mind is Your Weapon

here is another resource you may find I interesting
http://solarcyclescience.com
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Old 13-03-2018, 18:57   #195
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
No problem and I don't remember if I have or not so here is one of his webpages.
Suspicious0bservers – Climate Change | Space Weather | Astronomy – Your Mind is Your Weapon

here is another resource you may find I interesting
Discover the Sun!
I meant peer-reviewed publications in reputable journals.
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