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Old 13-03-2018, 06:56   #151
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
I have provided the datum previously on all perhaps you should do some digging to find and disprove my assertions.
( hint David dilly )

https://youtu.be/w4hbKF5-qUE

The Most Accurate Predictions - Hurricane - El Nino - Climate
David Dilley claims it is all natural cycles. What happened to those cycles?



The cycles are broken.
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Old 13-03-2018, 06:59   #152
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
that statement is just a bit misleading jack even for you .
In Victoria Canada yes the sea temp is 8℃
Latitude: 48.407326
Longitude: -123.329773
DMS Lat: 48 24' 26.3736'' N
DMS Long: 123 19' 47.1828'' W
So not that far north
Also jack the coldest sea temp I can find for Canada is
https://www.seatemperature.org/north...t-augustin.htm
At -1.1℃
The funny part to me is that the vast majority of Canadian coastlines are currently frozen solid.
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Old 13-03-2018, 07:02   #153
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
David Dilley claims it is all natural cycles. What happened to those cycles?



The cycles are broken.
considering David's accuracy in storm prediction I would rather believe his predictions and his methodology.
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Old 13-03-2018, 07:15   #154
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
David Dilley claims it is all natural cycles. What happened to those cycles?



The cycles are broken.
jack it seems just a bit suspect to me that only one of the links from the ossfoundation's page that you picked your graph from
That link is to https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-acces...imatology-data
However looking at the graph it appears we are just about where we should be
The current time looks ferry similar to what the past reconstruction so how for 700k years ago and again 500k years ago.
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Old 13-03-2018, 07:17   #155
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Meanwhile arctic sea ice keeps getting thicker volumes are even higher within the standard dev. Range
Looks like it is thickening even more in the nwp
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Old 13-03-2018, 07:53   #156
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Meanwhile arctic sea ice keeps getting thicker volumes are even higher within the standard dev. Range
Looks like it is thickening even more in the nwp
Again , that's the Standard deviation based on the 10-year average 2004-2013.

Why didn't you mention this? It's very relevant. Once could be a mistake or you just didn't even know, twice even after you've been told........

Sea ice extent against 1981 - 2010 median...

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Old 13-03-2018, 08:04   #157
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Again , that's the Standard deviation based on the 10-year average 2004-2013.

Why didn't you mention this? It's very relevant. Once could be a mistake or you just didn't even know, twice even after you've been told........

Sea ice extent against 1981 - 2010 median...

the fact that the standard deviation is based on the 2004-2013 average is a well known fact for any that are following the thread so I felt it was not worth reiteration again but thank you for pointing out the fact once again.
And the extent means nothing without the volume but the volume does stand alone.
Also your graph is not showing whatsoever other pages on this site show.
If you notice this graphic from the same site
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/...ll_r00_4km.png shows a significant difference ( yes I consider a quarter of a million km2 to be significant)
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:13   #158
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
that statement is just a bit misleading jack even for you .
In Victoria Canada yes the sea temp is 8℃
Latitude: 48.407326
Longitude: -123.329773
DMS Lat: 48 24' 26.3736'' N
DMS Long: 123 19' 47.1828'' W
So not that far north
Also jack the coldest sea temp I can find for Canada is
https://www.seatemperature.org/north...t-augustin.htm
At -1.1℃
The funny part to me is that the vast majority of Canadian coastlines are currently frozen solid.

How Victoria's sea water temperature make my comment misleading?

https://seatemperature.info/saint-au...mperature.html shows St Augustin at 0C.

Thanks for the other source of sea temperature. at -1.1 C it might freeze, because it at the mouth of the Saint-Augustin River; therefore will have a lower salinity.

Using your source Pangnirtung has sea temperature of -1.7C - not low enough to freeze.

BTW I am surprised you are using NOAA data which is viewed as corrupted by those who dismiss climate science.
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:24   #159
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Meanwhile arctic sea ice keeps getting thicker volumes are even higher within the standard dev. Range
Looks like it is thickening even more in the nwp
Newhaul - do you understand "standard deviation"? It does not equate to "normal fluctuation".

+/- 1 SD means that about 2/3 of the records are within that range. For example 1 SD below the mean in IQ is 85; 1 SD above the mean is 115. It does not mean that you IQ varies 15 points.
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:25   #160
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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How Victoria's sea water temperature make my comment misleading?

https://seatemperature.info/saint-au...mperature.html shows St Augustin at 0C.

Thanks for the other source of sea temperature. at -1.1 C it might freeze, because it at the mouth of the Saint-Augustin River; therefore will have a lower salinity.

Using your source Pangnirtung has sea temperature of -1.7C - not low enough to freeze.

BTW I am surprised you are using NOAA data which is viewed as corrupted by those who dismiss climate science.
the misleading comment was in reference to you not saying where the temperature cme from for context.
Its like saying the warmest ocean in USA is 25℃ and coldest is 0℃
No I don know exactly where the 0℃ temp is I assume somewhere in the bearing sea. The warmest is actually in Honolulu Hi. (See where I'm going ?)
as far as using NOAA well gotta use what's available even if a bit suspect.
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:26   #161
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Here are the April and September values for Arctic sea volume. The trend is obvious.

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Old 13-03-2018, 08:30   #162
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Newhaul - do you understand "standard deviation"? It does not equate to "normal fluctuation".

+/- 1 SD means that about 2/3 of the records are within that range. For example 1 SD below the mean in IQ is 85; 1 SD above the mean is 115. It does not mean that you IQ varies 15 points.
once again jack yes I do understand what +/-1sd means . Attempting to insult my intelligence once again does nothing . ( what's next name calling again?)
Meanwhile the arctic is still well below the point for sea ice formation.
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:31   #163
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Here are the April and September values for Arctic sea volume. The trend is obvious.

piomas again?
( well I suppose gotta fit the narrative )
try the Dmi
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:33   #164
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
the misleading comment was in reference to you not saying where the temperature cme from for context.
Its like saying the warmest ocean in USA is 25℃ and coldest is 0℃
No I don know exactly where the 0℃ temp is I assume somewhere in the bearing sea. The warmest is actually in Honolulu Hi. (See where I'm going ?)
as far as using NOAA well gotta use what's available even if a bit suspect.
Sea water freezes at -1.8C. That is my context. Where is the water temperature lower enough to freeze?

The source I used employs both NOAA and in-situ temperatures.
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:44   #165
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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piomas again?
( well I suppose gotta fit the narrative )
try the Dmi
Prove to me there is a "narrative".

Show me the equivalent charts from DMI - your source.

BTW - In October, 2016, I asked the good folks at DMI about the difference between them and PIOMAS.

Quote:
General speaking PIOMAS and DMI sea-ice thickness/volume products are quite similar and give estimates of the overall sea-ice volume. Both products are based on coupled ocean-sea-ice models forced by an atmospheric model.

Sea-ice volume is calculated as the product of sea-ice concentration and thickness.

Both PIOMAS and DMI products do reproduce the extent of sea-ice quite well and this is also the case for the sea-ice concentration, as observed sea-ice concentration from satellite products is assimilated in both models every day.

However, the products do differ in their calculated sea-ice thicknesses, and differences in sea-ice volume estimates likely stems from here. Today, the sea-ice thickness is very poorly known, as in-situ observations are rare and do not at all cover the entire Arctic Ocean - not even regions. There has been some attempts to use satellite products to measure the sea-ice thickness, but today the precission of the products/algoritms is far from good enough.

The differences between the PIOMAS and DMI sea-ice volume products, is mainly due to different ocean/sea-ice models and parameter choices, as well as different atmospheric forcing with different surface temperatures and long/short wave radiations. Again, the Arctic is a desert in the sense of observations and this is also true for atmospheric parameters. Thereby is is hard to determine which models are doing the best jobs.

I think you should treat the PIOMASS and DMI products similar to 2 different atmosphere model, which do also differ in their 3-5 days forecasts. In most cases they will agree, but there is certainly also periods where they do differ.

Similar can be said about PIOMAS vs. DMI sea-ice volume estimates. In general they are close to each other, but as you notice, there are also periods where they differ. Which one gives the most realistic estimate probably depends on the eye that looks at the results...
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