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Old 11-03-2018, 15:16   #136
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
Since it's a miserable rainy day here, let's take a few hours and expose some of the more egregious 'flights from reality' on the last three pages of this thread, in rough chronological order. I'll not 'quote' the individual posts; doing so will only pander to the apparent histrionic nature of many of the posts.

Not polar bear bioligist/zoologist Susan Crockford.

Other than self-published 'papers' on her blog (more of which later),
these are the only papers I could find published, none of which appear to anything to do specifically with polar bears, though one might have some relevance.

  • Evolutionary roots of iodine and thyroid hormones in cell-cell signaling. Integrative and Comparative Biology 49, 2009, doi: 10.1093 / icb / icp053 (free full text).
  • with SG Frederick: Sea ice expansion in the Bering Sea during the Neoglacial: evidence from archaeozoology. The Holocene 17, 2007, doi: 10.1177 / 0959683607080507 .
  • Animal domestication and heterochronic speciation: the role of thyroid hormones. In: N. Minugh-Purvis, K. McNamara (ed.): Human Evolution Through Developmental Change. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore 2002, pp. 122-153.
  • Commentary: Thyroid hormones in Neanderthal evolution: A natural or a pathological role? In: Geographical Review. 92 (1), 2002, pp. 73-88.
  • Dog evolution: a role for thyroid hormone physiology in domestication changes. In: SJ Crockford (ed.): Dogs Through Time: An Archaeological Perspective. Archaeopress S889, Oxford, UK 2000, pp. 11-20.
  • A commentary on dog evolution: regional variation, breed development and hybridization with wolves. In: SJ Crockford (ed.): Dogs Through Time: An Archaeological Perspective. Archaeopress S889, Oxford, UK 2000, pp. 295-312.
  • with CJ Pye: Forensic reconstruction of prehistoric dogs from the Northwest coast , in: Canadian Journal of Archeology 21,2 (1997) 149-153.
Regarding her self-published 'paper'

https://polarbearscience.com/2018/02...tarving-bears/

She clearly states

"For years, I’ve worried that the inevitable next episodes of thick Southern Beaufort spring ice would cause problems for polar bears and seals but we wouldn’t know it because whatever effects were documented would be blamed on reduced summer ice: I suspect that time may have come."

and goes on to make some loose assertions about how seals 'can't' live in areas of 5 meter thick ice.

She then uses a couple of Navy ice thickness maps to illustrate her 'point', and shows the areas where the study she has 'problems' with was done, implying that the decreased weight of some bears was because of lack of
'forage' (those oh-so-cute baby seals) brought on by less-than-habitable conditions for mom...





Of course, not surprisingly, a quick check reveals exactly the opposite of what is claimed.

The area where the study she questions was done



appears to be ideal habitat for ringed seals, as shown by satellite pictures of the area for the three years in question, seen in the attachments below.

Of course, none of this has anything to do with why the bears are or are not starving; it only illustrates the problem exacerbated by people using 'selective data' to try and prove an illusory point.


https://climateaudit.org/2017/12/18/...ical-lipstick/

Once again we have the pitiful wounded dialogue about 'hit pieces' and attacks by actually credentialed scientists.

"It appears that the paper is meant as a hit piece on Dr. Susan Crockford who has done work on bears and presents some of her results on her blog."

So where is this 'work'? I couldn't find any, and no, her blog doesn't count.

https://nigguraths.wordpress.com/201...dent-analysis/



"Polar bear attack paper invalidated by non-independent analysis"

I would expect any paper, 'attack' or otherwise, to be invalidated by data.


As for it actually being an 'attack', the paper, ( https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/...bix133/4644513 ) entitled

"Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy"

is actually just a look at the misconception of the public that there is any meaningful debate on the anthropogenic causes of the current global warming. That Ms. Crockford (how hard it is indeed to avoid the obvious quip), is the source of 80% of the denialist references in the paper is just a statement of fact; the percentage may actually be more or less in the (almost) real internet world, but it is easily verified to be very large by a quick google search for 'polar bear climate change hoax'.


Possible Influence of Solar Activity on Global Volcanicity | Ma | Earth Science Research

This 'paper'
"Cosmic-solar radiation as the cause of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions"

is mostly b/s and is directly contradicted by NASA and other credible scientific agencies. I've looked this up before and am not going to bother looking it up again. The information is readily available, and a moments consideration of the information given in the CCSE paper demonstrates
the invalidity of it's premise (hint: it has something to do with the magnetosphere...)

From the papers publisher's website:

"The Canadian Center of Science and Education (CCSE) is a private for-profit organization delivering support and services to educators and researchers in Canada and around the world."

The CCSE has no affiliation with the Canadian government, and is documented as a 'publisher for hire'.

Rather than go into what these 'psuedo-journals' are, and how they operate, here is a good video describing them.




https://watchers.news/2015/06/09/cos...nic-eruptions/

See above.

“For Fame And Fund”… Japanese Scientist Accuses Four Climate Researchers, IPCC, Of “Fake Science”

Leading Climate Sensitivity Scientist “Admits Mathematical Errors in The AGW Theory”!

Both of the above "notrickszone" blogs are from an uncredentialed 'scientist', Kyoji Kimoto, criticizing credentialed scientists. Another 'denier-darling', a la Susan Crockford, Lord Monckton, Roy Spencer, Joanne Nova, Judith Curry et al.


So where does this graph originate?




I tried to look it up and even tried this address (found on the graph)

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-c...r.v2.1.txt.ent

to no avail.

Given that it purports to show a '5 year moving average', I'm curious how the graphers predict the future, because a true moving average would have to stop 2.5 years before the last data point, which it clearly does not.

Also, the 'curve' is suspiciously smooth, especially when compared to a real graph showing a 15 year running average, as shown by this one for "Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea in the winters 1719/20 – 2012/3 and 15 year moving average."


from the https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-m...e-2/assessment


More than anything this statement

"Sub 0 for most of the year is still sub 0.
Doesn't matter weather its -30℉ or a mere -20 ℉ its still to cold for shorts."

illustrates quite handily what happens when someone who doesn't understand something fails to realize that they doesn't understand it.


And finally, I don't quite understand how the almost continual flaunting of
rules, or parts of rules 3, 12, 13 continues unabated by certain members.


Well, it's no longer a miserable rainy day so it's off to work...

Jim I agree with some people breaking the rules in various threads. If I feel they have broken any of the rules I report them
Perhaps you should do that as well this forum works so well due to members bringing suspect posts to the attention of the mods for review.
Meanwhile the arctic ice volume is once again within the standard deviation range.
Perhaps it will continue up or it may fall tommorrow.
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Old 11-03-2018, 15:56   #137
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Meanwhile the arctic ice volume is once again within the standard deviation range.
Standard deviation based on the 10-year average 2004-2013 that is.

Sea Ice Thickness and Volume: Polar Portal
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Old 11-03-2018, 16:05   #138
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post



So where does this graph originate?



It originates from Microsoft Excel on my computer. Unlike Phil Jones, that illustrious climate scientist at CRU, I know how to use Excel to create a trend line.

(P Jones, 2007: "I'm not adept enough (totally inept) with excel to do this now as no-one who knows how to is here. What you have to do is to take the numbers in column C (the years) and then those in D (the anomalies for each year), plot them and then work out the linear trend. The slope is upwards. I had someone do this in early 2006, and the trend was upwards then.")

Quote:

I tried to look it up and even tried this address (found on the graph)

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-c...r.v2.1.txt.ent

to no avail.
That is the source of the "PIOMAS Modelled Arctic Ice Volume" data plotted.

You are free to do exactly what I what I did with it: download it, normalise it into Year, Month, Volume, plot it in Excel and apply whatever trendline you feel is relevant and illustrative.

Quote:
Given that it purports to show a '5 year moving average', I'm curious how the graphers predict the future, because a true moving average would have to stop 2.5 years before the last data point, which it clearly does not.
For a given value of "true". I've never seem "true moving average" defined

There are two two broad ways of representing a moving average, trailing and centralised mean.

The displayed trendline is the standard moving average in MS Excel, familiar to anyone who uses Excel to plot and analyse data. It is a trailing average. IOW, each data point is the average of the preceeding x data points. That fact is blatantly obvious since it extends to the final data point.

Whether you use a trailing or centered mean representation of a trendline is irrelevant to the information it reveals - they both tell exactly the same story to anyone who understands this.

What it clearly shows is that the ice volume (averaged over five years to iron out annual variations) has remained constant beteen the period Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 and the period March 2013 to Feb 2018.
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Old 11-03-2018, 16:06   #139
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by conachair View Post
Standard deviation based on the 10-year average 2004-2013 that is.

Sea Ice Thickness and Volume: Polar Portal
yes based on the 2004-2013 average.
However the real telling point is in September and we will have to wait for 6 months for those numbers.
Personally I predict an increase by about 10% over the September minimum of last year. Probably slightly above 2015 as well.
(No I don't have a PhD in climatology or a crystal ball.)
lets revisit then.
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Old 11-03-2018, 16:17   #140
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post

Also, the 'curve' is suspiciously smooth, especially when compared to a real graph showing a 15 year running average, as shown by this one for "Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea in the winters 1719/20 2012/3 and 15 year moving average."


from the https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-m...e-2/assessment
Oh puhlease! You are comparing a moving average of data of two very dissimilar data sets:

1. Essentially Random data which fluctuates by an order of magnitude (ie by a factor of 10).

2 Cyclic data which varies by a factor of 2 .

How could you possibly expect their respective averages to appear anything like each other.
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Old 11-03-2018, 20:39   #141
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by StuM View Post
If you look at the PIOMAS raw data and apply a 5 year moving average, it becomes apparent that there has been no significant decline over the last 8-9 years.
Your full 5 year moving average trend line shows a 39% decline on ice volume.

100*(23-14)/23=39%

Is that not significant?
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Old 11-03-2018, 21:37   #142
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Your full 5 year moving average trend line shows a 39% decline on ice volume.

100*(23-14)/23=39%

Is that not significant?
We all know that ice volume has declined since the highs of 1979/80.
That has never been in dispute.
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Old 11-03-2018, 22:42   #143
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post
We all know that ice volume has declined since the highs of 1979/80.
That has never been in dispute.
that is now 4 full lunar cycles plus 2 years . Also nearing the end of the latest 13 year arctic ocean circulation cycle. Its about to get colder under the sea ice . Arctic ice seems to run on approx 40 year half cycles. The last high was about 40 years ago. The last low was 80 years ago ( give or take a couple years)
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Old 12-03-2018, 06:24   #144
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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We all know that ice volume has declined since the highs of 1979/80.
That has never been in dispute.
Please provide data that support your assertion that the 1979/80 was a high point in ice volume.
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Old 12-03-2018, 06:25   #145
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
that is now 4 full lunar cycles plus 2 years . Also nearing the end of the latest 13 year arctic ocean circulation cycle. Its about to get colder under the sea ice . Arctic ice seems to run on approx 40 year half cycles. The last high was about 40 years ago. The last low was 80 years ago ( give or take a couple years)

Please provide the data to support that assertion.
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Old 12-03-2018, 20:07   #146
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Of possible interest for those actually contemplating a Northwest Passage.

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Old 12-03-2018, 20:08   #147
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
Please provide the data to support that assertion.
I have provided the datum previously on all perhaps you should do some digging to find and disprove my assertions.
( hint David dilly )

https://youtu.be/w4hbKF5-qUE

The Most Accurate Predictions - Hurricane - El Nino - Climate
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Old 12-03-2018, 20:12   #148
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

Here is the arctic daily average temps to date
Notice it is well below the 0℃point (273.15k)
Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
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Old 12-03-2018, 21:22   #149
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
Of possible interest for those actually contemplating a Northwest Passage.

Sailoar great find thanks for posting this video
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Old 13-03-2018, 06:46   #150
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2018

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Originally Posted by newhaul View Post
Here is the arctic daily average temps to date
Notice it is well below the 0℃point (273.15k)
Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Quote:
The warmest sea in Canada today is 8C / 46F, and the coldest sea temperature today is 0C / 32F.
https://seatemperature.info/canada-w...mperature.html

Salt water forms ice at about -1.9C.
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